olafminesaw Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Mostly noise, but regardless of shifts in precip, the GFS looked a bit more strung out to me. The end result was about the same, but not really a step towards the NAM IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 No major changes at all. Slightly colder upstairs for the transition line folks, noise elsewhere. But it didn’t trend worse or go to Euro. After last nights modeling collapse it feels like a win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 No expert but with all the runs and met forecasts (tv and nwc) combined, I feel like we’re gradually coming to consensus of a 1-3 event almost statewide with a small portion 4-6, most likely the NE quadrant of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGardiner87 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Trended a bit better for us upstate guys! 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Overall if you’re west of Greensboro, today’s trends have been positive. Roughly the same (good) to the east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 18z GEFS really had a nice uptick in QPF in WNC this run, here is the last 3 runs to compare. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Main thing I’d like to see juice up is the WAA / frontogenesis / lead band for morning hours Wednesday. If we can get an inch or two from that, then I won’t worry as much about relying on coastal dynamics. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 GfS looked good for the Triangle. Kept the ice south of Wake. I think 4 to 6 inches looks good here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Main thing I’d like to see juice up is the WAA / frontogenesis / lead band for morning hours Wednesday. If we can get an inch or two from that, then I won’t worry as much about relying on coastal dynamics. 10000%. When we lost the WAA snows earlier runs showed our margin for error decreased significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 GEFS improved slightly on snow totals. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 18z UK improved slightly but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The 0z Suite will be the biggest runs of the year lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 29 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 18z and 12z GFS Precip field expanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Last 4 runs of GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, WXNewton said: Last 4 runs of GEFS That decreased for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Latest NBM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Shaping up to be 1-1.5" of snow and a little ip/zr slop on top for Raleigh. 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: That decreased for most Yeah the places that are seeing the biggest increase right now seems to be in TN and KY, N. MIss, spine of the APPs and some of WNC. The northern part of the QPF increased some and stayed stronger longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Any reports of this storm now it onshore where it’s over or underperforming for the given forecasted area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 It’s a pick em of models 36 hours out. You got some showing a 6-10” snow storm for central NC, some showing an ice storm, some showing a light mix, and some showing absolutely nothing. I’ve seen model discrepancy in short range but this is wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AGardiner87 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It’s a pick em of models 36 hours out. You got some showing a 6-10” snow storm for central NC, some showing an ice storm, some showing a light mix, and some showing absolutely nothing. I’ve seen model discrepancy in short range but this is wild I think most of them are showing snow north of Raleigh, though. Raleigh and south Wake is always the battle zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 26 minutes ago, rawlee said: Shaping up to be 1-1.5" of snow and a little ip/zr slop on top for Raleigh. This is my expectation. Think 4” is our high end and low end is 1/2” sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 We’re due for an overperformer 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNoseHater Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 if someone told me that I-85 was routed specifically to allow them to build it during the winter with minimal snow interference, i'd at least consider it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Just now, Brick Tamland said: I think most of them are showing snow north of Raleigh, though. Raleigh and south Wake is always the battle zone. I mean even for north of Raleigh. QPF amounts vary wildly and some models have none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I mean even for north of Raleigh. QPF amounts vary wildly and some models have none. I haven't seen any models this afternoon that had none. They all have anywhere from 2 to 6 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Just now, Brick Tamland said: I haven't seen any models this afternoon that had none. They all have anywhere from 2 to 6 inches here. UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: UK Maybe one. The rest have anywhere from 2 to 6 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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