snowbird1230 Posted Monday at 06:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:25 PM 34 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Why do people care what TV mets say? They’re looking at the same models we are Ive saw literally every model out there show huge amounts of snow in the mountains 24hrs before the event, yet when NWS GSP meteorologist look at them and cut the totals 60-70%.. 90% of the time they are right. Lots to interpreting models other than just looking at them 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Monday at 06:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:26 PM 1 minute ago, snowbird1230 said: Ive saw literally every model out there show huge amounts of snow in the mountains 24hrs before the event, yet when NWS GSP meteorologist look at them and cut the totals 60-70%.. 90% of the time they are right. NWS are not tv Mets. Important distinction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:27 PM All the TV mets would rather bust low than forecast a big storm and it not happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted Monday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:28 PM 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: NWS are not tv Mets. Important distinction. True, what I was meaning is some tv meteorologist don't interpret the models well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOD Posted Monday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:30 PM Speaking of NWS for RAH, they issued briefing 3 just before noon today on the possible impacts. This format is more thorough than in previous years. http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted Monday at 06:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:31 PM This is a very tough forecast for all mets. So let's not do the blame game. As with any difficult forecast, you always go conservative. If you're bullish and you miss, that can be credibility damaging. makes sense to me. it's a mindset i think everyone here needs to have. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leesville Wx Hawk Posted Monday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:33 PM All the TV mets would rather bust low than forecast a big storm and it not happen.The Big 5 was saying 1-3 airport north with higher totals north-model showed snow but mix up to RDU about 6 pm Wed. WTVD was 2-4 with higher north/northeast-model showed nearly all snow RDU north. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange county Posted Monday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:40 PM WRAL and the NWS Raleigh will have nearly identical weather forcasts by tommorow ish And they both will hedge a little because of uncertainties about Precip totals and the sleet/snow line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:47 PM I guess the 18z HRRR is about to start. I guess we will know a little more after seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Monday at 06:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:53 PM Latest Sref compared to this morning's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Monday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:55 PM This thing is going to hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNoseHater Posted Monday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:55 PM If I were a TV meteorologist, getting spammed with comments about my forecasts nonstop, I'd go conservative on predictions too. And honestly, predicting low amounts would have paid big returns over the last three years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Monday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:57 PM 12z CMC ENS and 00z ENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 07:00 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 07:00 PM Looks like every ensemble trended weaker/east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 07:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:01 PM One of the difficulties of being a TV met is that you really only have 3 primary opportunities to communicate to the general public....AM News, lunch News, evening news... People take what you say and run with it.. Plus, you have to take time to create your graphics and your package, and by that time it is already outdated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:03 PM 6 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 12z CMC ENS and 00z ENS Very good consistency. almost identical for NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted Monday at 07:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:10 PM 6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: One of the difficulties of being a TV met is that you really only have 3 primary opportunities to communicate to the general public....AM News, lunch News, evening news... People take what you say and run with it.. Plus, you have to take time to create your graphics and your package, and by that time it is already outdated. Precisely. That and they watch one of the segments and don’t check back in for a day. When they create those graphics, much of the public takes the lines so realistically they are practically looking for street names to decide what color they are in. You can’t take the lines literally. regardless, it’s looking like no matter what many of us are seeing at least 2 days off work/school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 07:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:16 PM 12Z JMA has was appears to be nearly all if not all snow at RDU due to 850s likely staying below 0C most if not the entire time along with ~0.80” qpf suggesting ~~6” of Kuchera snow. A 6” snowfall would be their 4th biggest in La Niña Feb-Apr back to 1886-7! The only larger than 6” were 8.0” on 3/10/1934, 6.9” on 2/6/1984, and 6.2” on 2/17-18/1989. 2/16/96 was very close with 5.6”. In contrast, there have been 8 snowstorms of 6”+ during El Niño Feb-Apr vs the 3 during La Niña at RDU. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted Monday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:23 PM Quote 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z JMA has was appears to be nearly all if not all snow due to 850s likely staying below 0C along with ~0.80” qpf suggesting ~~6” of Kuchera snow. A 6” snowfall would be their 4th biggest in La Niña Feb-Apr back to 1886-7! The only larger than 6” were 8.0” on 3/10/1934, 6.9” on 2/6/1984, and 6.2” on 2/17-18/1989. 2/16/96 was very close with 5.6”. In contrast, there have been 8 snowstorms of 6”+ during El Niño Feb-Apr vs the 3 during La Niña. Larry What area are you referring to? Raleigh? Any temperature maps or p-types to go with the JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 07:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:26 PM 19 minutes ago, UpStateCAD said: Larry What area are you referring to? Raleigh? Any temperature maps or p-types to go with the JMA? RDU. There are no p-type maps or 2 meter temp maps for the JMA at either WB or TT. It is pretty much a given that 2m will be below 32. TT does have 850s at 24 hour intervals for today’s 12Z JMA allowing me to educatedly guess that RDU would be just about all snow (maybe a little sleet). I think that 6” of snowfall from 0.80” qpf would be doable but it is just an educated guess. Regardless, it would be a major hit. If it were mainly sleet (highly doubtful), it would still approach 3” of concrete. ***Edit: I’ll update this when it comes out on WB as they have 850s and qpf at 6 hour intervals through hour 72. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted Monday at 07:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:44 PM Whatever happens, whatever you get, it will still be cold. Even if you don’t get anything go outside and breathe the cold air, this may be last time it’s in the teens or low 20s this year. Let it fill your lungs and spark clarity. It will be a refreshing embrace one last time. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:48 PM There's dry, then there's HRRR dry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:48 PM HRRR is no yeet. Looks like the precip from the south never makes it into NC. Only get some coming from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:48 PM Wow guys. The HRRR is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:48 PM Just now, wncsnow said: There's dry, then there's HRRR dry That's only through 1PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:49 PM Winter storm Watch just posted up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Monday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:50 PM 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: That's only through 1PM Yes but compare that to other short range guidance and its still way drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 07:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:50 PM The HRRR looks good. The coastal is starting to crank up which will fill in the moisture. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted Monday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:51 PM Anybody got the latest GRAF? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 07:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:51 PM 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: That's only through 1PM All the precip to the south is moving east instead of north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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