tarheelwx Posted Monday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:46 PM Just now, BornAgain13 said: At this juncture, having it on our side may not matter. It's been absolutely terrible I agree. I'm hoping that whatever the 3km NAM is cooking up comes to fruition. It has alot more moisture back in the western half of NC and seems to be a fair amount slower. I could see it putting out 0.50"+ in the Triad. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Monday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:46 PM From WRAL... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:47 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Monday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:48 PM 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: I agree. I'm hoping that whatever the 3km NAM is cooking up comes to fruition. It has alot more moisture back in the western half of NC and seems to be a fair amount slower. I could see it putting out 0.50"+ in the Triad. TW Better regional performance at short lead times is literally the NAM's entire purpose for existing, so if it can't beat the globals in that regard, time to put it out to pasture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 05:48 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 05:48 PM Just now, CaryWx said: From WRAL... I mean from modeling that seems very reasonable and in fact you could even move the mixed bag area further north if NAM thermals are your thing… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:49 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Monday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:49 PM Just now, NorthHillsWx said: I mean from modeling that seems very reasonable and in fact you could even move the mixed bag area further north if NAM thermals are your thing… Yet there is this on their website too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted Monday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:51 PM WRAL is only interested in fearmongering, on all fronts, not just weather. They'll hug the ice forecast as long as they can. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Monday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:52 PM Why do people care what TV mets say? They’re looking at the same models we are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 05:54 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 05:54 PM 1 minute ago, CaryWx said: Yet there is this on their website too... Both the NAM and FV3 turn Raleigh proper over to ZR for the majority of the event. It’s still a major possibility. Plain rain is off the table though and we will have some sleet for sure. I’m not sold on us seeing any snow until the NAM shows it at 12z tomorrow. I’ve been burnt by NAM thermals for years I’m not letting it get me this time. It is very good at assessing thermals in a miller-A. Like the best. Seeing it mix into Virginia worries me, even at range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Monday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:55 PM 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Both the NAM and FV3 turn Raleigh proper over to ZR for the majority of the event. It’s still a major possibility. Plain rain is off the table though and we will have some sleet for sure. I’m not sold on us seeing any snow until the NAM shows it at 12z tomorrow. I’ve been burnt by NAM thermals for years I’m not letting it get me this time. It is very good at assessing thermals in a miller-A. Like the best. Seeing it mix into Virginia worries me, even at range Having flashbacks to January 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted Monday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:59 PM 15 minutes ago, eyewall said: Thank you all and yeah I hope we get closer to 3 inches here but we shall see. you think most of north ga (above ATL) could see 1-3 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Monday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:00 PM 12z and 6z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:01 PM the 12Z 3K NAM has a LOT of moisture for central NC. Much longer duration event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted Monday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:02 PM 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I mean from modeling that seems very reasonable and in fact you could even move the mixed bag area further north if NAM thermals are your thing… yes, but have you considered WRAL bad? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:03 PM 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: 12z and 6z EPS Very consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted Monday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:04 PM How does the 3km NAM perform compared to the “regular” NAM? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 06:04 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 06:04 PM RAH has brought down expected snowfall totals. Raleigh has expected 2” high end 3”. Booooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Monday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:04 PM The biggest change that I noticed on the EPS is the moisture in TN and KY really tried to ramp up some. If this piece of the storm trends back stronger and stronger each run, maybe it leads to more of a front end thump for WNC? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Monday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:04 PM It appears we are stuck on a knife's edge between cold enough for mostly snow but too dry vs juicier but too warm aloft for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Monday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:06 PM As usual, think northern Wake will beat downtown Raleigh by several inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Monday at 06:06 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:06 PM 5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: the 12Z 3K NAM has a LOT of moisture for central NC. Much longer duration event. Yeah but how bad are the thermals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:08 PM 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: Yeah but how bad are the thermals? It's icy for sure. I'm just looking at impacts, not snow amount. I think Wake will be an icy mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted Monday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:10 PM The other thing to mention on the EPS is the trend to develop some backside banding with the upper low as it pivots through. Like several other models this piece of energy is starting to develop more and more on the backside of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:14 PM 23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Both the NAM and FV3 turn Raleigh proper over to ZR for the majority of the event. It’s still a major possibility. Plain rain is off the table though and we will have some sleet for sure. I’m not sold on us seeing any snow until the NAM shows it at 12z tomorrow. I’ve been burnt by NAM thermals for years I’m not letting it get me this time. It is very good at assessing thermals in a miller-A. Like the best. Seeing it mix into Virginia worries me, even at range Actually, the 12Z WB NAM output shows mainly snow (1.8”) and sleet (0.8”) with only .02” of ZR for RDU due to 850s only getting to barely above 0C for a portion and 925s being near 0C for only a short time before falling to -2 to -3 for most of the qpf: The globals keep RDU in near 100% snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted Monday at 06:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:20 PM Agree, hadn't seen any predominant zr precip. proggs for Wake county. So not sure what RAL sees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:21 PM RAL leans heavily on their Futurecast model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 06:22 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 06:22 PM 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: Actually, the 12Z WB NAM output shows mainly snow (1.8”) and sleet (0.8”) with only .02” of ZR for RDU due to 850s only getting to barely above 0C for a portion and 925s being near 0C for only a short time before falling to -2 to -3 for most of the qpf: The globals keep RDU in near 100% snow. AKA a glacier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange county Posted Monday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:23 PM Just now, PackGrad05 said: RAL leans heavily on their Futurecast model Yes .And I have no idea how different it is -but is a twist from the models we discuss on this board, Right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Monday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:23 PM 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: RAL leans heavily on their Futurecast model I watched their futurecast and it keeps it mostly snow for Raleigh north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now