NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 12:39 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 12:39 PM Just now, Brick Tamland said: Are you just trolling? Honestly at this rate that might be our fate. Western cutoff is going to be brutal. It’s not like the southern/weaker trends are done. If anything, they’re picking up steam. NYC was here two days ago, the MA fell yesterday. Richmond went down this morning. We’re holding the line but that’s not where you want to be given everything I’ve seen. EURO has cut 1” of QPF here since yesterday morning. If current modeling was accurate I’d go 2-4” for Raleigh with a jack of 6-8” near Elizabeth city. But given the trends, that 2-4” could fall to TR by the end of the day and I almost expect it to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted Monday at 12:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:47 PM It’s either lost at sea or it discovered treasure .In house models for the win!!!! Lets ride it since we have lost all hope in everything else.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 12:49 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 12:49 PM DTs snow map is actually comical. He’s got areas in 6-12” range that legitimately won’t see accumulation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 12:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:50 PM Everyone slow down with the pessimism. The models are coming into great agreement now that more accurate data can be fed in. This always happens. I expect the large shifts to end and expect models will be rebound slightly the other direction as they come into focus. The last system was barely 1-2 for most of Wake and was still high impact... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 12:52 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 12:52 PM 14 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: The thing that looks wonky to me is how robust it is across the south and then it dissipates into basically 2 separate storms once it hits the mountains and foothills. Its depressing how much models can get right but yet oh so wrong within a week. . I mean this is the 3rd storm this year that’s done the exact same thing. What a way to waste a -5 AO and +PNA for the east coast. Still holding out hope for central/eastern NC but foothills, upstate and western VA are beyond life support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted Monday at 12:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:52 PM Looking at soil temps in conjunction with daytime snows I’m a little concerned about accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted Monday at 12:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:53 PM I mean this is the 3rd storm this year that’s done the exact same thing. What a way to waste a -5 AO and +PNA for the east coast. Still holding out hope for central/eastern NC but foothills, upstate and western VA are beyond life support We have been playing the creed playlist since the first of January in the foothills.. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 12:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:54 PM Soil temperatures are fine. The high today and tomorrow will barely reach 50, if that. The low tonight is 29 and the low tomorrow night is even colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 12:55 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 12:55 PM 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Everyone slow down with the pessimism. The models are coming into great agreement now that more accurate data can be fed in. This always happens. I expect the large shifts to end and expect models will be rebound slightly the other direction as they come into focus. The last system was barely 1-2 for most of Wake and was still high impact... I agree for central/eastern NC but if it’s just the coastal and no WAA I really don’t think areas west of there have much chance of anything beyond nuisance snows or mood flakes. This could still be a big event and to your point it could just be honing in on the sweet spot but to me the boom scenarios have come way down and the bust, even in central NC, is literally no QPF. Maybe I’m wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 12:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:58 PM Reminds me a lot of this storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 01:01 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:01 PM 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: Reminds me a lot of this storm Reminds me of Jan 2022. Completely lost the storm to the east then 24 hours out models caught on to interaction with trailing ULL and resulted in snow across the state with coastal enhancement further east 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted Monday at 01:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:03 PM 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Everyone slow down with the pessimism. The models are coming into great agreement now that more accurate data can be fed in. This always happens. I expect the large shifts to end and expect models will be rebound slightly the other direction as they come into focus. The last system was barely 1-2 for most of Wake and was still high impact... I have one more negative post and then I'm done being negative. In the triad, if you exclude sleet for the 2022 storm, we have not had a 3"+ snowstorm in over 6 years. During the 2010s Greensboro had 12 3"+ daily snowfalls. I would happily have zero snow a couple years and then get a nice solid 3-5" snowfall, but we can't even seem to manage that after finally breaking the drought. I still think it's possible we break 3", but seems like a long shot at the moment 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 01:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:03 PM 47 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: This is truly a historic showing of the Euro model in a bad way. Unreal. As bad as some in the SE are feeling about the Euro changes, can you imagine how bad the NE is feeling? 6Z 2/16 Euro: 6Z 2/17 Euro: instead it went way SE: 6Z 2/16 Euro: JB still yesterday evening thought even this was going to trend W to W of Hatteras 6Z 2/17 Euro instead trended way east: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted Monday at 01:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:04 PM Reminds me of Jan 2022. Completely lost the storm to the east then 24 hours out models caught on to interaction with trailing ULL and resulted in snow across the state with coastal enhancement further east Please. Ill give anything.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdawg10 Posted Monday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:09 PM man..who died in here? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 01:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:09 PM I would be fine with 2 or 3 inches in Raleigh to be honest. The 6z OP run of the GFS was actually an improvement in snow totals here with a little less mixing. The question I am debating is do I want to chase somewhere in northeastern NC/southeastern VA for the bigger totals? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 01:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:12 PM 6Z EPS 10:1 RDU still gets a real nice hit of 4-4.5” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted Monday at 01:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:13 PM I was getting ready to post that the EPS still showed a mighty nice hit for central NC. Much better than anything we've had in 3-4 years at this range. Now that high res models are coming into range, we should get a better look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 01:14 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:14 PM 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: I would be fine with 2 or 3 inches in Raleigh to be honest. The 6z OP run of the GFS was actually an improvement in snow totals here with a little less mixing. The question I am debating is do I want to chase somewhere in northeastern NC/southeastern VA for the bigger totals? If it was me and it looks like we get 2-4” in Raleigh I’d stay put. Not sure I’d miss that given how rare snow has become here to chase 6-8” somewhere else. If those totals beef up to double digits NE of here, maybe I’d chase regardless what Raleigh got 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 01:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:15 PM The storm isn’t lost, it’s just squashed like an ant under your shoe. You’re just seeing a surface reflection of what happens when your northern stream dominates like the 96 bulls. We’ll watch for ticks in the positive direction in the upper levels but for now, anyone west of RDU is getting CPR. Between RDU and the coast….watch out. Sweet spot is going to possibly end up where the ponies play (Currituck). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 01:15 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:15 PM 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: 6Z EPS 10:1 RDU still gets a real nice hit of 4-4.5” I mean normally if this forum saw that map less than 48 hours from start time this place would be hopping with positivity 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted Monday at 01:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:18 PM 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: If it was me and it looks like we get 2-4” in Raleigh I’d stay put. Not sure I’d miss that given how rare snow has become here to chase 6-8” somewhere else. If those totals beef up to double digits NE of here, maybe I’d chase regardless what Raleigh got Yeah it would have to be double digits to go after it I think. Otherwise if we do get 2 or 3 and a little ZR that could end up quite photogenic here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted Monday at 01:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:20 PM 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: As bad as some in the SE are feeling about the Euro changes, can you imagine how bad the NE is feeling? 6Z 2/16 Euro: 6Z 2/17 Euro: instead it went way SE: 6Z 2/16 Euro: JB still yesterday evening thought even this was going to trend W to W of Hatteras 6Z 2/17 Euro instead trended way east: AI has been saying this for days. Has wavered very little. Truth. TW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 01:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:22 PM 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I mean normally if this forum saw that map less than 48 hours from start time this place would be hopping with positivity True. 4 inches of snow would be the biggest storm here in the past 4 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 01:26 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:26 PM 2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: True. 4 inches of snow would be the biggest storm here in the past 6* years. Fixed it for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Monday at 01:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:26 PM This storm is onshore. 12z should have quite a bit of real-time data ingested. If a trend or reversal is going to happen, that’ll be the opportunity. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted Monday at 01:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:32 PM 42 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: DTs snow map is actually comical. He’s got areas in 6-12” range that legitimately won’t see accumulation Saw the same thing. He does this virtually every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Monday at 01:32 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 01:32 PM 23 minutes ago, GaWx said: As bad as some in the SE are feeling about the Euro changes, can you imagine how bad the NE is feeling? 6Z 2/16 Euro: 6Z 2/17 Euro: instead it went way SE: 6Z 2/16 Euro: JB still yesterday evening thought even this was going to trend W to W of Hatteras 6Z 2/17 Euro instead trended way east: Absolutely epic model fail north of NC. To the point there aren’t terribly many examples of similar fails in that timeframe with a predicted major storm. WPC is usually conservative and even they honked the horn early based on the amazing model consensus we had. But weather is gonna weather, it’s why we’re here. If the 96 hour EURO was right everytime this wouldn’t be as fun. Eventually we’ll get one that tends positively for the forum. With all the negativity, central and eastern NC are still looking at a significant snow. It could die later but for now this is far from dead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Monday at 01:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:37 PM 10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Fixed it for you It's been so long I forgot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 01:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:37 PM 16 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: AI has been saying this for days. Has wavered very little. Truth. TW. Yeah, it hasn’t had as big jumps as the Euro op run to run on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now