Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Sweet mother of Nature!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro with another big hit for the Triangle and NE into VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Life support for 77 west 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Euro with another big hit for the Triangle and NE into VA. Wow, 9.8” at RDU! I wouldn’t bet on that much as it is a major outlier to other models and La Niña climo says the chance of that much this time of year there is very low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, wncsnow said: Life support for 77 west You need JB’s expectation of the low going W of Hatteras due to cold model biases/NW trend to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Life support for 77 west PULL THE PLUG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, GaWx said: You need JB’s expectation of the low going W of Hatteras due to cold model biases/NW trend to verify. If I'm relying on him, I'm really doomed. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I think RDU could see something in the 2-4 range but with a daytime hit we are going to need some solid rates to get that. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: Wow, 9.8” at RDU! I wouldn’t bet on that much as it is a major outlier to other models and La Niña climo says the chance of that much this time of year there is very low. I wouldn't say it is a major outlier. UK and Canadian are similar. I think the GFS is an outlier now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 There is no denying it now, and it’s painful given the ongoing snow drought there, but the foothills are trending to a non event. There is time to correct, but the trend is concrete at this point. If the EURO verified, this would be RDUs biggest snow storm since 2002 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: You need JB’s expectation of the low going W of Hatteras due to cold model biases/NW trend to verify. It’s got as much of a chance going NW as Hubert has to return to UNC next year 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If your worried about cold air, better start worrying about the cold air pushing moisture father south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, GaWx said: You need JB’s expectation of the low going W of Hatteras due to cold model biases/NW trend to verify. JB has never seen a storm he couldn’t turn into a Kocin big city nor’easter 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: It’s got as much of a chance going NW as Hubert has to return to UNC next year Idk from my sources he's probably going to return 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I wouldn't say it is a major outlier. UK and Canadian are similar. I think the GFS is an outlier now. Ok maybe calling it a “major” outlier is too strong. But the UK/CMC have 5-6”. Isn’t that a pretty large difference from 9.8”? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The Ledge storm is pretty amusing (named in Mid Atlantic forum). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: Ok maybe calling it a “major” outlier is too strong. But the UK/CMC have 5-6”. Isn’t that a pretty large difference from 9.8”? Still a major storm here. They all have the axis of the most snow in the same spot, and all have mostly snow if not all snow for North of Raleigh. Euro has been holding steady, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I’d be curious to hear the chatter in the room when making this because not a single ounce of guidance supports this west of 77.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Still a major storm here. They all have the axis of the most snow in the same spot, and all have mostly snow if not all snow for North of Raleigh. Euro has been holding steady, too. If the bar is 5-10” between models going into this for Raleigh I think we’ll be OK… Snow maps aside, the heaviest snow extending from triangle NE is pretty uniform on models at this point, and aligns with the major ensembles. I’d focus more on that than extrapolating totals from op runs 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 What’s our frontogenisis / lift sitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Here’s to hoping the 00z runs begin pulling this back a bit. Based on the amped look at 48 hours, I’d be a little surprised if it didn’t come back west a bit. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Look how far the Euro heaviest qpf has trended the last 3 runs. In NC, the 0.5” and 1” lines have shifted E/SE a whopping 100-150 miles! It is due to shift back west some at 0Z. Anyone want to make a prediction of what the 0Z will show? 0Z Euro 18Z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, wxtylerb said: I live here now, let's hope for a change. Welcome to the Lake. I'm in Cornelius. NWS saying around 2 inches here. Local mets calling for a snow, sleet, and freezing rain slop that will probably cut that total in half. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, GaWx said: Look how far the Euro heaviest qpf has trended the last 3 runs. In NC, the 0.5” and 1” lines have shifted E/SE a whopping 100-150 miles! It is due to shift back west some at 0Z. Anyone want to make a prediction of what the 0Z will show? 0Z Euro 18Z Euro 0Z will be another small shift east IMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Nasty.. This could easily trend back towards the southern triangle 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 My general rule with freezing rain is to take model output and divide by 3... Even doing that, that is a still a nasty amount. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just a gut feeling that it may pull back west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 20 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 0Z will be another small shift east IMO. Yeah could be...if the models don't start expanding back our way by lunchtime tomorrow, us back out west might be toasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Richmond fringed now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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