NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Agree to disagree. And I never said snow-covered roads... but roads will be a mess. and hazardous. There would likely also be early release or closures of businesses/schools I watched my Jan snow melt away completely with a high of 28 late February it absolutely is an issue with light daytime precip! Let’s hope the GFS isn’t correct and we have rates so it doesn’t matter! If it’s coming down moderate-heavy it won’t matter at all 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: I watched my Jan snow melt away completely with a high of 28 late February it absolutely is an issue with light daytime precip! Let’s hope the GFS isn’t correct and we have rates so it doesn’t matter! If it’s coming down moderate-heavy it won’t matter at all Best i can tell, just north of where ever that mix line is will be good rates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Also consider how cold it will be the next couple of nights. Ground temps ain't gonna be as warm as u think. This is the last I’ll say about it but the day before is in the mid 50’s here ground temps will not be frozen. Let’s get the storm cranking so this doesn’t matter! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It's kinda funny. By now, with 3 days or less to go , you would of thought some Mets would put first call snow maps out. I havent see any and for good reason. Hard to decifer this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This is the last I’ll say about it but the day before is in the mid 50’s here ground temps will not be frozen. Let’s get the storm cranking so this doesn’t matter! Yep, and sun angle warms that top layer like a magnifying glass. There’s a reason fruit trees bloom in the Triangle in the first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 UK looked like it was coming in colder. Only goes out to 66 with the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: UK looked like it was coming in colder. Only goes out to 66 with the 18z run. Not so sure that's a good thing. Maybe to cold and shred the thing out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z GEFS actually improved over 12z for southern VA/northern NC and points east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Not so sure that's a good thing. Maybe to cold and shred the thing out lol Yeah I looked at precip amounts, def was further south but also less precip than lunchtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I feel this is underdone for Raleigh, where even if mostly sleet, over an inch seems likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z GEFS actually improved over 12z for southern VA/northern NC and points east. Hmmm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Hmmm... Looks like it’s going to have some more amped members 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Maybe North Hills should change this thread to Wednesday Morning Minor Event. Sometimes you have to challenge the narrative for change to occur. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: Maybe North Hills should change this thread to Wednesday Morning Minor Event. Sometimes you have to challenge the narrative for change to occur. We’re holding on for posterity when this trends to a 1-3” mixed bag at most it will be remembered a “major” 1-3” mixed bag 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looking at the 18z GFS, that’s a text book Miller A track. Best set up we’ve had in a long time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Looks like it’s going to have some more amped members Still has the late phase but much more explosive. Could be epic for the tidewater, triad to triangle in the battle zone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Essentially now (ensembles) Euro, GFS, UK and CMC in alignment . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 RGEM was a nice hit for Raleigh-East. All snow 64-north. Foothills completely blanked… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: RGEM was a nice hit for Raleigh-East. All snow 64-north. Foothills completely blanked… Really think the biggest axis of snow is going to be the Triangle NE into VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 RGEM has the precip converging from the west and south in central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 All the models look pretty similar now if you count GEFS coming in line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Important to look at the jet streaks and favorable right entrance left exit regions . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: All the models look pretty similar now if you count GEFS coming in line Except the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z euro even more of a shift SE with the LP slightly and colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Rsheely88 said: 18z euro even more of a shift SE with the LP slightly and colder . Any maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Per a video JB released around 11AM today, he’s insisting that the low will go W of Hatteras (100-150 miles W of the model consensus). He’s been insisting on this. His reasoning is that he thinks the models are pushing the cold air boundary out too far due to a bias. He’s saying bet on the common NW trend we talk about. Any chance he’s going to be right? I believe that all of the latest models are well E of Hatteras except the 18Z Icon and NAM, which are only barely off Hatt: 18Z Icon: 18Z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 45 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I feel this is underdone for Raleigh, where even if mostly sleet, over an inch seems likely This looks like a bit of a mess and not QC'd well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Everyone just move to Boone Nov.- March problem solved for everyone . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, eyewall said: This looks like a bit of a mess and not QC'd well Yeah they are not in line with bordering offices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now