Daniel Boone Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, GaWx said: 12Z Euro 24 hour qpf: High Ratio's will be in order for at least half of the qpf in NW Section's . Also, should be more in Upslope area's as well as Model's handle it poorly. Euro has a bit of a low qpf tendency as well as a slight warm bias. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, acc fan said: Virginia tidewater Let's see if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, sinterpol said: Since we're 72 hours out: the way things are trending today, where would you want to be for a decent amount of snow for Euro/GFS? Elizabeth City. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 22 minutes ago, sinterpol said: Since we're 72 hours out: the way things are trending today, where would you want to be for a decent amount of snow for Euro/GFS? Currituck lighthouse 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppalachianWedge Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I am now accepting wagers on who gets NAM'd tomorrow.Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: I mean. Realistically, how far south and east can it go? I see that Dry Fork is only ~6 miles S of Chatham. The following link has Chatham snowfall and other data back ~100 years:https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rnk 2”+ Chatham snowfalls 2/15-3/10 during La Niña: there is data going back 30 La Niñas 2/18-19/1989: 10.3” from ? 2/25-26/1934: 9.0” from 1.60” liquid 3/2/2009: 7.7” from 1.09” liquid 2/15/1965: 6.0” from 0.48” liquid 2/24/1989: 5.0” from ? 2/18-19/1972: 4.5” from 0.71” liquid 2/20/2012: 3.2” from 0.40” liquid 2/23/2001: 2.0” from 0.26” liquid 3/2/1939: 2.0” from 0.20” liquid The other 21 La Niñas had no storm of 2”+ during 2/15-3/10. Median largest snow during 2/15-3/10 in any one of the 30 La Niñas was actually <0.5”! -Chance for 0.5”+ storm during La Niña 2/15-3/10 <50% -Chance for 2”+ storm during La Nina 2/15-3/10: 9 out of 30 or 30% chance -Chance for 4”+: 20% -Chance for 7”+: 10% -Chance for 10”+: 3% So, for example: if you get a 4” snowfall, which is looking like a good possibility, you will have done better than 80% of La Niñas during 2/14-3/10. With the current storm threat, you’re in better shape than in most La Ninas this time of year. Regarding snow to liquid ratio for the seven 2”+ snows the liquid is available for: only one storm was >10:1, 2/15/1965. It was at 12.5:1. It was cold with a high of 29 and low of 23. What matters most is the temp aloft like at 850. I bet that was a good bit below 0C. Best to look at Kuchera instead of 10:1 if available. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: I see that Dry Fork is only ~6 miles S of Chatham. The following link has Chatham snowfall and other data back over 100 years:https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rnk 2”+ Chatham snowfalls 2/15-3/10 during La Niña: there is data going back 30 La Niñas 2/18-19/1989: 10.3” from ? 2/25-26/1934: 9.0” from 1.60” liquid 3/2/2009: 7.7” from 1.09” liquid 2/15/1965: 6.0” from 0.48” liquid 2/24/1989: 5.0” from ? 2/18-19/1972: 4.5” from 0.71” liquid 2/20/2012: 3.2” from 0.40” liquid 2/23/2001: 2.0” from 0.26” liquid 3/2/1939: 2.0” from 0.20” liquid The other 21 La Niñas had no storm of 2”+ during 2/15-3/10. Median largest snow during 2/15-3/10 in any one of the 30 La Niñas was actually <0.5”! -Chance for 0.5”+ storm during La Niña 2/15-3/15 <50% -Chance for 2”+ storm during La Nina 2/15-3/10: 9 out of 30 or 30% chance -Chance for 4”+: 20% -Chance for 7”+: 10% -Chance for 10”+: 3% So, for example: if you get a 4” snowfall, you’ve done better than 80% of La Niñas during 2/14-3/10. Regarding snow to liquid ratio for the seven 2”+ snows the liquid is available for: only one storm was >10:1, 2/15/1965. It was at 12.5:1. It was cold with a high of 29 and low of 23. What matters most is the temp aloft like at 850. I bet that was a good bit below 0C. Best to look at Kuchera instead of 10:1 if available. Thank you! That's so cool! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sinterpol Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, AppalachianWedge said: I am now accepting wagers on who gets NAM'd tomorrow. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk Good NAM'd or bad NAM'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 84hr NAM looks like the GFS but more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The 18z NAM is wayyy north of anything else right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sinterpol Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 How spot on was NAM last event at 72-48 hr out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, sinterpol said: How spot on was NAM last event at 72-48 hr out? Not very 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, sinterpol said: How spot on was NAM last event at 72-48 hr out? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 lol reverse NAM’d! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: lol reverse NAM’d! That’s good because reality has been basically the opposite of its output all season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNoseHater Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On the topic of IMBY posting, on mobile you can’t see someone’s location (or I have it set up incorrectly.) I just have to remember where everyone lives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18Z ICON looks almost identical with placement, amounts slightly lower. Still massive gradient across central NC/Wake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Don't love the trend towards late development, meaning pretty dry West of Durham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 RAH discussion. They are seeing the same as everyone else on this board. We will all know either late Monday or early Tuesday. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 PM Sunday... A southern stream shortwave will move east from the southern Plains on Tuesday night to the Deep South on Wednesday, while a separate northern stream closed mid/upper low drifts SE from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes region. The southern wave and upper divergence from the right entrance region of an associated upper jet streak will spawn a surface low that develops on a cold front along the Gulf Coast on Tuesday night and early Wednesday. This low will then deepen and moves NE in a classic "Miller A" track along or just off the Southeast US coast on Wednesday afternoon and evening. With a cold dry air mass in place ahead of the system, confidence is increasing in a period of frozen precipitation across most of central NC from late Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening. However, how impactful it is still remains to be seen, with both precipitation types and amounts will very much up in the air. This does not look like an all snow event, as there is almost definitely going to be significant warming aloft with southerly flow at 850 mb. At this time, the most likely part of the region to stay all or mostly snow is the far northern Piedmont, with a fairly large corridor of mainly sleet and freezing rain to the south. Our southern tier of counties including FAY are most likely to stay all or mostly rain. A lot will depend on the degree of phasing that can occur between the southern stream and northern stream wave, the latter of which also has an associated jet streak which dives into the Central Plains and mid-MS Valley. The ECMWF (and to some degree the Canadian) has a faster and deeper northern stream mid/upper low compared to the GFS, allowing for stronger height falls and greater energy interaction between the two systems. This results in a deeper coastal low and would bring a high impact winter storm to central NC, with colder temperatures and greater QPF amounts. The GFS would be more of a moderate/nuisance type event that only lasts for 6-12 hours before we are quickly dryslotted after 00z Thursday. This is borne out in their respective ensembles as well, with the EPS ensembles depicting a 50+% probability of warning criteria snow (>= 3 inches) across roughly the northern half of the region while the GEFS only have 20-40% probabilities that are confined to our northern tier of counties. Deterministic and ensemble guidance has also been depicting potential for significant amounts of freezing rain somewhere across central NC, perhaps exceeding a quarter inch, with the greatest probabilities from around Raleigh to the south and east. The NAM is surprisingly the warmest out of all guidance, with mostly liquid for a good part of the area, but considering this storm is at the very end of its range, will mostly disregard it at this time. It should be noted that neither the GFS or ECMWF has complete phasing between the two waves, and the overall trend in both deterministic and ensemble guidance has been slightly downward in terms of overall QPF with a faster exit of precip, so will need to see if this trend continues. Yesterday the ensemble mean QPF was in the 1 to 2 inch range, while today it is more like the 0.5 to 1.5 inch range, lowest west and highest east. If this trend continues, we would be looking at more of a nuisance type event like the GFS has, but that is a big if. Stay tuned as details should become clearer, hopefully by tomorrow when the southern wave reaches the West Coast and we can get better sampling. As for timing, precipitation still looks to start from SW to NE on Wednesday morning, ending from SW to NE during the evening or early overnight hours. Temperatures will be highly dependent on the ultimate evolution of the system, but Wednesday is likely to be quite chilly with temperatures stuck in the lower-to-mid-30s during the day, maybe even upper-20s in the far north. Forecast lows Wednesday night are in the upper-teens to mid-20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Looks like snow chances are drying up for Lake Norman/North Mecklenburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Eric Webber's thoughts from the other place. It's going to hold steady or trend south a little more from here in general imho. While we could get a sizable north shift here, the pattern does not favor a big one this time around unless we see seismic changes with the chunk of the vortex that's getting trapped underneath this west-based -NAO blocking ridge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Don't love the trend towards late development, meaning pretty dry West of Durham I’m nervous anywhere west of 95 imo. Take that as you will because I’m genuinely not trying to sound trollish, but that northern stream is crushing the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 18Z ICON looks almost identical with placement, amounts slightly lower. Still massive gradient across central NC/Wake Filled in the snow hole back here in the west, I'll take that as a plus for MBY for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Are we really worried about the ICON? Especially when the Euro, UK and Canadian looks better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Nice read on Heavy Snow discussion. The mention still the possibility of it climbing the coast. Still a lot of unknowns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Sounds like RAH has been on the southeast forum this afternoon! Literally sounds like this thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 WRAL's thoughts. Typical dividing line near Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Sounds like RAH has been on the southeast forum this afternoon! Literally sounds like this thread I gave them some insight. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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