wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: This went from a HECS to a nothing burger real quick Right. The ICON and RGEM continue the trend of weaker and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Just now, wncsnow said: Right. The ICON and RGEM continue the trend of weaker and faster. ICON was not weaker and is a major storm for the eastern 2/3 on NC and SE Virginia. Also much colder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Right. The ICON and RGEM continue the trend of weaker and faster. The newest ICON is actually slower than its previous run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 There’s never going to be a storm that has trends that look good for everyone. This looks better for CNC and worse for WNC, conversely if it trended nw it would be better for WNC. Can’t make blanket statements. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: ICON was not weaker and is a major storm for the eastern 2/3 on NC and SE Virginia. Also much colder It's less precipitation overall, especially western areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Just now, wncsnow said: It's less precipitation overall, especially western areas. But it is significantly colder and winds up into a major storm for central and eastern areas. I get it, trends aren’t good for WNC. But that was the best run yet for a lot of folks here from that (crappy) model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: But it is significantly colder and winds up into a major storm for central and eastern areas. I get it, trends aren’t good for WNC. But that was the best run yet for a lot of folks here from that (crappy) model It had less precipitation for most eastern areas too if you look at 06Z it's just more snow this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Posters on here regularly come for wncsnow when he’s just posting what he says for his area….which is exactly the same as y’all are doing. Good for yall down east scoring again. But, foothill folks have a reason to post as well. And the trends haven’t been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 we all know that 90% of the time the old NW Trend comes into play, these models do this about this time in every storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It had less precipitation for most eastern areas too if you look at 06Z it's just more snow this time. 2 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: Posters on here regularly come for wncsnow when he’s just posting what he says for his area….which is exactly the same as y’all are doing. Good for yall down east scoring again. But, foothill folks have a reason to post as well. And the trends haven’t been good. There’s no doubt trends are not good in foothills and western VA. Also the extreme HECS solutions seem to be fading. But this looks nothing like a nothing burger for the eastern 2/3 of NC and VA. Need the better models to report in shortly 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: Posters on here regularly come for wncsnow when he’s just posting what he says for his area….which is exactly the same as y’all are doing. Good for yall down east scoring again. But, foothill folks have a reason to post as well. And the trends haven’t been good. It’s not about the posting. The declarations just need qualifiers: “this doesn’t look good for my area but shows x” 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: There’s no doubt trends are not good in foothills and western VA. Also the extreme HECS solutions seem to be fading. But this looks nothing like a nothing burger for the eastern 2/3 of NC and VA. Need the better models to report in shortly If RDU-GSO end up getting 3-6” of snow/sleet from this, it would be near a historic high for those cities for the last half of Feb during La Niña. It’s important to look at history to keep it in perspective. 6” would be a new record for this category: RDU La Niña 4”+ snows Feb 15-28: 2/16/1996: 5.6” 2/23-4/1989: 4.2” 2/17-8/1989: 4.9” 2/25/1894: 5.0” GSO had 5.7” just after Feb (3/1-2/2009). Furthermore, if a lot of the 3-6” is sleet, that’s much more impactful. Most of these weren’t majority sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: It’s not about the posting. The declarations just need qualifiers: “this doesn’t look good for my area but shows x” Maybe. I always just look at the location of the poster when reading thoughts. That normally works for me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: It’s not about the posting. The declarations just need qualifiers: “this doesn’t look good for my area but shows x” This is rich coming from a “winter cancel” guy that’s been part of negatively flooding the mid range discussion with despair for weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 I think everyone on here, me included, is guilty of IMBY posting and the RDU crowd can hijack a storm thread from time to time. As @strongwxnc just said knowing poster locations usually helps. If y’all wanna see a sh*t show hop over to the MA forum starting with the 0z runs from last night 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Honestly not a bad look from the 12z gfs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12z GFS Snow to Sleet to Snow for RDU 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The last 3-4 runs of GFS have been very consistent. 12Z is slightly (20-30 miles) southeast of 6Z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Honestly not a bad look from the 12z gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12Z GFS qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The worries regarding QPF will be short-lived when we get into the short-range. Especially given the consistency of the EURO with totals over 1". TheSTJ wave is amplified and doesn't shear out. It will likely be the opposite as the PJ wave drops in behind it and phases with it. How close to the coast is the million dollar question. Precip type is still the main issue in my mind for NC and where the SN/IP/ZR lines setup. That's still very much in question. As the models resolve the track of the low, the mid-levels (900mb-700mb) will be impacted and dictate that. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 0.5-0.6” qpf for RDU as shown on the 12Z GFS would be a major winter storm for them since all is wintry precip (all with temps well below 32) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 As depicted on the GFS, northern wake would be powdery and southern wake would be glazed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Canadian consistent with 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 36 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I think everyone on here, me included, is guilty of IMBY posting and the RDU crowd can hijack a storm thread from time to time. As @strongwxnc just said knowing poster locations usually helps. If y’all wanna see a sh*t show hop over to the MA forum starting with the 0z runs from last night I will admit to being THE MOST negative here with IMBY winter is over. And yes, for me it still is, other than it being cold this next week. Further north of me though, looks snowy, although a bit iffy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Canadian all snow for northern 1/2 of NC but definitely less precip than 0z. GFS was less precip but once again colder. CMC will not be well received west of triangle… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Canadian keeps the freezing rain way south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS continues to be the least impressive while the Canadian and Euro look to be the most impressive in regards to snow versus ice for central NC. I know I feel better with the Euro on my side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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