NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 I think if we’re looking at trends this far out pretty much every model has trended to a more intense cold dome north of us. How often does DC get a HECS with foot+ totals and temps around 20? This is not normal stuff here at least at the surface. In my time tracking I cannot remember many coastals where DC sat in the low 20s. Same goes for Richmond through western Virginia. I mean this is rare to get an airmass like this to align with a powerful coastal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 hours ago, GaWx said: I’m checking this link’s worst icestorms for the E Piedmont and am looking for wx maps to see: http://americanlifelinesalliance.com/pdf/IceStormSummaries.pdf Per this link, 2/13-15/1960 was worst icestorm in 33 years in much of NC. Here is a link to the 2/12-14/60 wx maps, suggesting a Miller A: https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/swm.docs.lib/1960/19600212.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/swm.docs.lib/1960/19600213.pdf https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/swm.docs.lib/1960/19600214.pdf Per this snow map from Webb, it also was a big snow producer for much of NC, with 3.7-5” in RDU area: In addition to 2/13-14/1960, it appears that the terrible 2/2/1996 icestorm was from a Miller A. I don’t even see a wedge! https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=159 At the time it was the worst ever in Hickory and Statesville for outages: “By 1500 EST, many major population centers such as Hickory and Statesville were reporting 50 percent power outages. The storm became the "worst ice storm ever" in local power company records. By late night most customers had lost power. Many customers did not have power restored for up to a week during extremely cold weather.” @StantonParkHoya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I think if we’re looking at trends this far out pretty much every model has trended to a more intense cold dome north of us. How often does DC get a HECS with foot+ totals and temps around 20? This is not normal stuff here at least at the surface. In my time tracking I cannot remember many coastals where DC sat in the low 20s. Same goes for Richmond through western Virginia. I mean this is rare to get an airmass like this to align with a powerful coastal You must not have been around for PD1 on 2/18/1979. I still can't believe that storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Just now, CentralNC said: You must not have been around for PD1 on 2/18/1979. I still can't believe that storm. I wasn’t even a thought at that point haha. I was born in ‘89 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I wasn’t even a thought at that point haha. I was born in ‘89 Kids. I was in my Junior year at Mars Hill in 1979 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockyKnob Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: Interesting. Not directly related, but I've only ever seen 1 system in NC that ive experienced personally where we received significant sn/ip and also a significant accumulation of ZR. Dec 2002 in Hickory. Received roughly 6 inches of sn/ip followed by .3 or so zr. Extremely rare. Usually it's one or the other due to the nature of storm tracks and limited moisture supply. I grew up in Lenoir in the 70’s and early 80’s. We had several events that finished with zr on top of 6+ inches of snow. Sometimes so much of a crust that I could walk on top of it. Crazy fun sledding conditions. I live in Chapel Hill now, and was here for the December 2002 monster ice storm. Had no power for 8 full days. We were on a well back then, which also meant we had no water. I swore I would buy a generator after that, but kept rolling the dice enduring shorter outages. I finally got a whole house generator this summer. Looks like I may have done it just in the nick of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, HKY_WX said: Interesting. Not directly related, but I've only ever seen 1 system in NC that ive experienced personally where we received significant sn/ip and also a significant accumulation of ZR. Dec 2002 in Hickory. Received roughly 6 inches of sn/ip followed by .3 or so zr. Extremely rare. Usually it's one or the other due to the nature of storm tracks and limited moisture supply. I lived in DC between 2004-2008 and I cannot remember the year but it was late winter and we were forecast to get a crippling ice storm but it ended up being the biggest sleet bomb of my life. Maybe 5-6” of sleet with a little ZR. I remember the piles next to roofs were like 2’+ deep and it lasted in the shade almost until April. Was literally like a glacier, it could not be shoveled just chisled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looks pretty similar to 12Z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It gets exciting when the models start to roll and you don't have to wait long to see the new results. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Might be a smidge colder out front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just a tad colder and the low is a little south compared to 12 Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It's a little weaker this run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Not a terrible run. Little less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Baby steps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 There was a little less phasing this run to my eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Liked the last Euro run a lot more, but I guess the GFS is better than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Warm nose for RDU is significantly smaller than previous runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said: Liked the last Euro run a lot more, but I guess the GFS is better than the last run. It's moving in the right direction at about the same speed a 12 month old walks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 30 minutes ago, GaWx said: In addition to 2/13-14/1960, it appears that the terrible 2/2/1996 icestorm was from a Miller A. I don’t even see a wedge! https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=159 At the time it was the worst ever in Hickory and Statesville for outages: “By 1500 EST, many major population centers such as Hickory and Statesville were reporting 50 percent power outages. The storm became the "worst ice storm ever" in local power company records. By late night most customers had lost power. Many customers did not have power restored for up to a week during extremely cold weather.” @StantonParkHoya The Feb 96 system is prob my all time most memorable winter system in Hickory. Definitely the most damaging system i've seen outside of Hurricane Hugo and Helene in that area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's moving in the right direction at about the same speed a 12 month old walks I guess the good thing is it's going in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 If this pans out I may be taking a short trip to VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: If this pans out I may be taking a short trip to VA I’ll be in Massanutten Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: The Feb 96 system is prob my all time most memorable winter system in Hickory. Definitely the most damaging system i've seen outside of Hurricane Hugo and Helene in that area. 96 for was the second most memorable, 1st was a storm around 97 -98 getting old can’t remember which year . But, while at App state 30 inches in 12 hours ! Biggest flakes till this day I’ve seen . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I believe the 18z Canadian was also colder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The models seem to be catching on to the cold press. Solid day of trends. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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