NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 In a year that actually featured winter weather for the entire forum, it seems fitting that we finally buck the trend of early spring in February, with a major winter storm showing up midweek. The pattern is ripe for winter weather and models have been unusually locked in on a storm threat for the last 10 days. The storm has a very cold airmass to work with to the north but as always, track, timing, strength and depth of cold air will be critical to determining who gets what and how much. As we inch closer to “go time” it is becoming apparent this will likely be a high end storm for parts of the east coast, and it will be a mixed bag for NC/SC and possibly even north Georgia. Lots to iron out over the next few days but there is potential for high amounts of snow and ice over parts of the forum. Let’s get this thing rocking! 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Please pin this thread! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Let’s roll . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 For comparison, here are the sfc maps for Dec of 2002 Miller B major icestorm for NC: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looks like 2002 had the primary going into TN before transferring. I’m not seeing that for this coming week. What am I missing? I see this as more of a Miller A TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Looks like 2002 had the primary going into TN before transferring. I’m not seeing that for this coming week. What am I missing? I see this as more of a Miller A TW Same here. Seems like a snow-to-ice-to-snow in the western Piedmont at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Hoping it trends colder and we can get at least a little And less 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 6z GEFS was the best low track yet from that suite. Would seem to be colder/snowier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Still 5 days out, but the initial WPC discussion is out. Expect fine tuning for the next several days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 FWIW the 12Z NAM is colder than 6Z in its long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Looks like 2002 had the primary going into TN before transferring. I’m not seeing that for this coming week. What am I missing? I see this as more of a Miller A TW That’s the point. 2002 was Miller B/quite different. Miller A (upcoming storm) typically not as associated with major ice. But model consensus still shows a lot of ZR. Maybe that will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 I said this yesterday and I’ll stand by it but if this phases sooner (assuming same track) and a deform band forms I really think a lot of the western piedmont will flip to snow. That probably won’t be reflected on models until we get closer but with models seemingly ticking colder, at the surface I’d have to think 925s will too and dynamics may be able to overcome the 850 torch. Sadly colder lower levels don’t mean a fat warm nose can’t still exist but this looks to be a dynamic storm that can overcome a moderate warm nose with rates. Some of the soundings in the upstate and foothills show a thick warm nose but it isn’t much more than +1 which might be workable with small changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: That’s the point. 2002 was Miller B/quite different. Miller A (upcoming storm) typically not as associated with major ice. But model consensus still shows a lot of ZR. Maybe that will change. I’m still highly skeptical of a large ZR area. It seems extremely likely someone will get a crippling ice storm given the unusual cold north of us and strong low level CAA but these miller As almost always trend to a narrower ZR area and more sleet. Also, the cold is deep and entrenched over Va and the high is building in as the storm moves in. Seems like a recipe for more sleet as the storm goes on and flip to snow if a deform band sets up… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: I said this yesterday and I’ll stand by it but if this phases sooner (assuming same track) and a deform band forms I really think a lot of the western piedmont will flip to snow. That probably won’t be reflected on models until we get closer but with models seemingly ticking colder, at the surface I’d have to think 925s will too and dynamics may be able to overcome the 850 torch. Sadly colder lower levels don’t mean a fat warm nose can’t still exist but this looks to be a dynamic storm that can overcome a moderate warm nose with rates. Some of the soundings in the upstate and foothills show a thick warm nose but it isn’t much more than +1 which might be workable with small changes I’ve found based on analysis of 850s for SE winter storms going back many decades that +1 to +2 850s tend to be sweet spot for sleet and +3 to +5+ tends to be sweet spot for ZR. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’ll take a sleet storm but the ZR can kick rocks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The preliminary AO for today per CPC is -5.26, well predicted. This would compare to the alltime record -AO for Feb, -5.29 (2/5/1978). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 ICON is more amped than last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Hopefully that isn't the start of a more amped track. Still lots of ZR for triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ouch, ICON with massive shift NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 RGEM to 84 hr comparison at face value fwiw is much colder and tad slower with the precip compared to the GfS and even now 12z icon. Really curious to see more of the short range models come into range. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12Z Icon for RDU suggests ~0.1” qpf of snow, ~0.2” qpf of sleet, and ~1.35” of ZR. Temps get to as low as 27F at end of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I expect when we get in the short range, cad will trend stronger as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z Icon for RDU suggests ~0.1” qpf of snow, ~0.2” qpf of sleet, and ~1.35” of ZR. Temps get to as low as 27F at end of ZR. Total disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said: RGEM to 84 hr comparison at face value fwiw is much colder and tad slower with the precip compared to the GfS and even now 12z icon. Really curious to see more of the short range models come into range. . We need that to continue for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We need that to continue for sure.Unfortunately it’s on an island of its own compared to the 12z NAM at the same time frame but the resolution is 10km vs 12km on the NAM so hopefully it’s seeing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Total disaster That (12Z Icon) could mean ~0.7” of ice accretion on trees in RDU, a huge problem that would be similar to 2002. It takes only 0.5” of accretion for widespread power outages: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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