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OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17


wdrag
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5 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Thump?  You mean you'll be getting rates at an inch an hour, or more?

Someone seems bitter. Yea it’s pounding now. Probably end up with 2”. Probably an inch in the last hour 

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1 hour ago, steve392 said:

Flurries now, temp up to 31.  Dry slot approaching mahwah

Hard to call it a dry slot when we had hardly any precip before it either . My melted was .1 of precip 1 inch of snow and in 4 plus hrs lol

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Winter Wonderland up here. Pulled the kids around on sleds with the quad. Been snowing steady since 3:00. Having a blast. Helps that we had 3 or 4 inches from the last event that didn’t perform as forecast. If it turns to rain that’s gonna suck cause the ground is frozen solid. Currently 28 and snowing.


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Strange winter part of the storm. Started out like gangbusters, putting down 1.1" in about 2.5 hours and then poof, precip just turned off since about 5:00 pm and it's now up to 33F with some light rain falling - possibly missed another 1-2 hours of snow.  Seems like this one is over south of 78 for wintry precip and even north all the way towards 84 has changed over to sleet and freezing rain already.  

That's 1.1" vs. my prediction yesterday of 1.4" and the NWS prediction of 2.0", so a bit of an underperformer south of 78 and given similar reported ~1" or so amounts for most N of 78, that's a more significant underperformer there, where 1-3/2-4" were forecast, although reports of icing are common N of 78 with temps still below 32F, so could still be a significant impact event for that.  These snow to mix to rain systems are just very difficult to predict accurately, especially aloft.  Brings me to 15.9" on the season, which isn't too far behind normal for this date.  

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