OBS-Nowcast Noon Saturday 2/15-Noon Monday 2/17

[steve392]

Nice and cold in mahwah, 34 degrees.  Lets keep it this way.  

[uofmiami]

Temp dropping at both my stations down to 49 now.  51 for the high at both earlier. 

[lee59]

6 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Temp dropping at both my stations down to 49 now.  51 for the high at both earlier. 

Yes the wind has died down and the temperature has dropped to 49 from 51.4 here. Seems to have leveled off for now.

[Stormlover74]

Let's see what this line does

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yes the wind has died down and the temperature has dropped to 49 from 51.4 here. Seems to have leveled off for now.

Yes the wind is completely calm now.

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Let's see what this line does

Make everything soaked again before flash freezing in 3 hours….

[bluewave]

Tree damage likely in areas which got the heaviest icing once the winds pick up as this is the first high wind warming in years right after an ice storm. 

 

[steve392]

We haven't experienced any winds worth noting in mahwah.  Im guessing the worst is later tonight?

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tree damage likely in areas which got the heaviest icing once the winds pick up as this is the first high wind warming in years right after an ice storm. 

 

That's almost as much ice as we had on Long Island in January 1994, however back then we didn't get any wind or power outages from what I remember.

The wind is what makes this truly terrible.

[mgerb]

2 minutes ago, steve392 said:

We haven't experienced any winds worth noting in mahwah.  Im guessing the worst is later tonight?

Right. With the strong inversion, there's no winds mixing down north of the warm front. That's why it's been so calm. That will change once the cold front passes. 

[RedSky]

The wind is REAL folks torrential downpours too

[Northwest NJ]

It was 33 degrees here at 3:30.  It is now back down to 32.  Trees and bushes caked in ice, there was very little melting today.  Temperatures will start falling rapidly in a few hours so everything is going to freeze like a rock by morning.

[weathermedic]

Not to mention the dense fog in areas where the warm front has gone through 

[ebwx]

I just drove down and back to Belmar on Rt18.  Coming back once in RT18, temp spiked to 59 with a glimpse of sunshine, then back into the dark clouds and fog.  Temps fell rapidly traveling north and I would say as of 30 minutes ago the warm front is along the Rt. 79 area.  So around 15 miles temps went to 59 to currently home 39.  

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That's almost as much ice as we had on Long Island in January 1994, however back then we didn't get any wind or power outages from what I remember.

The wind is what makes this truly terrible.

Yeah, the HRRR has gusts around 70mph in the highest elevations.

 

 

[weathermedic]

From the OKX AFD at 4:18pm:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The secondary low was deepening over the New York City metro
area at 20Z with a warm front through Long Island, reaching the
north shore. The warm front may reach into coastal Connecticut
before the low tracks northeast and a cold front moves through
early this evening. The low reaches southeastern Canada this
evening and then remains nearly stationary. With cold advection
and strong gradient westerly flow, gusts are still expected to
reach Wind Advisory levels this evening, 45 to near 55 mph, and
continue into Monday. The Wind Advisory remains in effect
through Monday afternoon for the entire region.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the HRRR has gusts around 70mph in the highest elevations.

 

 

 

wow that's right near I-80

[nj08822]

Lightning and heavy rain in Nazareth PA.  36 degrees.

[weathermedic]

Barometer at my station down to 29.03

[weathermedic]

Radar really lit up just northeast of Allentown with lightning detected. Line thins out and extends to Maryland. SPS out south and west of NYC for wind gusts up to 60 mph in thunderstorms. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow that's right near I-80

NW of Philly already gusting to 62 mph.

 

[sussexcountyobs]

55 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Nice and cold in mahwah, 34 degrees.  Lets keep it this way.  

No. Only 32 here. Trees have alot of ice.once the wind starts, it's going to be a BIG problem. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Barometer at my station down to 29.03

29.02 here, it's going to keep going down until that cold front comes through?

[the_other_guy]

im surprised more people arent talking about the flood potential with the snowpack and this heavy rain moving in.

 

saw it a little this morning…this will be worse

[2112wxgrl]

There’s already been power issues in Sussex county today. When the winds lick in, it could be disastrous. If outages become widespread, they will be prolonged if it becomes too dangerous for crews to work in strong winds.

[Picard]

32F, now into moderate rain, with the sun going down.  Perfect.

[bluewave]

Small hail and flooding possible with that storm moving across NNJ.

 

 

[Allsnow]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tree damage likely in areas which got the heaviest icing once the winds pick up as this is the first high wind warming in years right after an ice storm. 

 

Warm front was further south then forecasted some of these places never thawed out. Going to be bad with the winds 

[gravitylover]

Hovering between 32-34° depending on whether there's a breeze or not with dense frzg fog Yikes

[LoboLeader1]

Judging from radar it looks likes the heaviest of the rains occur west of HPN, by 20:00 hours precip is well east of the area.