wdrag Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Cherry picking but if you go to Trop Tidbits, globals ECAI, 2m T at 18z today, then go back all the versions you can, at least back 120 hours, you'll see how consistent the ECAI was regarding todays 18z T. Its running a couple degrees warmer, especially central NJ but at 120 hours, and then you keep seeing how the cold was tucked in, you should be impressed with this modeling and how threatening this looked for ice into midday today. Click for clarity. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: Cherry picking but if you go to Trop Tidbits, globals ECAI, 2m T at 18z today, then go back all the versions you can, at least back 120 hours, you'll see how consistent the ECAI was regarding todays 18z T. Its running a couple degrees warmer, especially central NJ but at 120 hours, and then you keep seeing how the cold was tucked in, you should be impressed with this modeling and how threatening this looked for ice into midday today. Click for clarity. Temps are already crashing in western pa and ny,the cold air was stubborn thruout. And i agree that is almost spot on for almost a week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Visibility is less than 200’ on the palisades in bergen and rockland. Worst ive seen in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Sitting at 32, was really hoping today would have melted all the ice jams or at least last nights snow. May not do either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Pouring and 37 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Pouring rain 31. Trees and shrubs bending to the ground. Everything covered in ice. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 rain and snow, 33 in mahwah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Hard rain, 41 degrees, 1.44 inches so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: So far, the temperature is running colder than had been modeled for New York City. The 2/16 6z NBM had a 13z reading of 39°. The 12z run had 38°. The current reading is 33°. Whether this means that the temperature won't surge to or above 50° still remains to be seen. If, by 20z, readings continue to run well below the modeled output (47° on the 12z NBM), that could be an indication that the high temperature will ultimately fall short of the late day figures currently shown on the guidance. At 18z, NYC was 36°. The 2/16 12z NBM showed 44° for 18z and 47° for 20z. It is growing increasingly unlikely that NYC will reach 50° today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The wind just shifted to SE at JFK and they are up to 47°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 45 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Visibility is less than 200’ on the palisades in bergen and rockland. Worst ive seen in a while. High dew point above shallow cold.. will try to mix. Not doing it in PHL and doubt if it does NYC, though as Bluewave said... JFK eastward along the s shore looks briefly very mild at 4P. There's your fog where unmixed and high inverted above shallow cold. Not liking how its still 31.6 here in Wantage at 118PM with ice clinging to trees and wind ready to come up at 5P and whip into power outages. Hopefully I'm overplaying this from here north into the Catskills nw CT and W MA but its already busy in PA/NJ/NYS/CT with power problems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1:15 and still below freezing here. Currently 31.5. Has been between 30.5 and 31.5 all morning. Ice not accumulating at any kind of rapid rate but up to about .10" here. Maybe a tad more. Paved / concrete surfaces just wet. Trees are drooping with the ice accumulation, nothing drastic but very noticeable. Have to say KUDOS to Walt. He had this nailed for days suggesting temperatures were going to struggle today. I will be paying closer attention to the EC-AFIS 2M temps going forward. Great work on his part! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: At 18z, NYC was 36°. The 2/16 12z NBM showed 44° for 18z and 47° for 20z. It is growing increasingly unlikely that NYC will reach 50° today. 50 Sandy Hook... I agree Manhattan and LGA not 50 there but its not quite done. Dense fog tells me heat is just a few hundred feet above you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 34 here-snowpack hanging tough-alot of ice on trees just north of here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 34 here now; thankfully that heavy rain has moved east. Just got back in from chopping channels into the snow backs/ice to get the water to drain around the garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Drenching here. Pools forming in the snowpack in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 We have popped up to 36 here, helping with ice. Hopefully not too much will be left on trees. Rain is lightening up some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 38 with puddles in snowpack, winds still out of the E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Still 37⁰ in Smithtown. 40+ most places south of the LIE. Latest HRRR gets Smithtown up to 53⁰ at 5pm and then back down to freezing by 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Still 37 here. Mid 40s in southern Nassau, all of the island will torch shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Jesus complete deluge now. Everything is a lake now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 54.2 on banegat bay. As the low pulls away, the wind has absolutely started to honk. If the modeled wind gusts verify for tomorrow with frequent gusts at or above 60, there will be localized power issues with downed trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 SPC HREF FIRE MIN wind gust is what I use for the following. 32.0F here in Wanatge. I think we have about 5 hours (til 7 or 8 tonight) to get rid of our remaining ice, probably too late for some spots in se NYS/W of the CT River and SPC HREF FIRE min wind gust increase rapidly 5P-8P, with worst of the wind tomorrow morning. Power outages continue to increase and it looks to me like pretty big problems coming to e NYS, ne PA, nw NJ and w of the CT river in SNE. Best I can do... not an absolute but we'll be busy cleaning up tomprrow and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Still 38 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Up to 46.7 degrees here. wind has turned more southerly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Warm front has made it through JFK with 50° and strong SSW flow. Feb 16, 1:40 pm 50 48 94 SSW 18G26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 48 in Bay Shore and 36 in Northport. Solid gradient you rarely see. Up to 38 here and break in the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Winds turned SE and i jumped up to 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Winds turned SE and i jumped up to 46 Big winter for you. Rich get richer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 As of 2 pm ..36° with drizzle..50 at jfk.. still a 14 degree diff. We might hit 40 but not much higher then that here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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