NorthShoreWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: That warm sector better be a true southerly wind to achieve mid 50's here. If it does its gonna be brief anyway but imo ,it doesnt hit 50's here. The max temps will happen on a southwesterly surface wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Heavy rain now; temp 32/32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: The HRRR that I posted is spot on for the current temps. So the forecast looks good. It usually dose best in these set ups. That run had a max temp of 36 here, the 13z has the max temp at 34. Just made it to 32 here finally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: That run had a max temp of 36 here, the 13z has the max temp at 34. Anything within a few degrees is pretty close in my book since I don’t expect perfection from these models. The general rule of thumb is that warm fronts usually have no problem making it through CNJ. Then they usually hang up somewhere between I-78 and I-80. Long Island usually makes it above 50° but sometimes Central Park can hover in the mid 40s. Usually have to get far enough north closer to your area in order to struggle to get above freezing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, bluewave said: Anything within a few degrees is pretty close in my book since I don’t expect perfection from these models. The general rule of thumb is that warm fronts usually have no problem making it through CNJ. Then they usually hang up somewhere between 1-78 and I-80. Long Island usually makes it above 50° but sometimes Central Park can hover in the mid 40s. Usually have to get back closer to your area to struggle to get above freezing. Oh I agree, not looking for perfection but at possible trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, IrishRob17 said: Oh I agree, not looking for perfection but at possible trends. Yeah, I have noticed that these warm fronts can slow their northward progress to the north of NYC when there is snowcover on the ground. It’s usually models like the HRRR that do best once we get within the shorter term range. Maybe someday they will boost the Euro to 4km or lower and make it more competitive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Im on that anomaly,something is off or a unforeseen transfer to the coast later is possible. Colder air is rushing behind the primary low which i believe might be dying in eastern ohio/western pa and the trailing energy down in tenn now moving in to va is the new primary. Watch out if the low exits the southern jersey coast,alas northerly winds keep it colder. Cle to buff back to snow currently. I'm thinking that the cold air damming is a little stronger than had been modeled. It might still get to 50°, but there's a little more uncertainty than there was even 6-12 hours ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 New City / Rockland County and I am at 32 degrees and there is a lot of slippery slop out there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I'm thinking that the cold air damming is a little stronger than had been modeled. It might still get to 50°, but there's a little more uncertainty than there was even 6-12 hours ago. 6 hours ago ..modeled for mid 50's ..recent trend is cooler..we might barely get in to the lower 40s now. The northerly winds continue and temps havent budged much currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: New City / Rockland County and I am at 32 degrees and there is a lot of slippery slop out there Im in the bx and its wet and wild out there..there are patches of ice that most people dont see when walking and slip they go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just had a pop up heavy rain/pinger shower,interesting,there is def still cold air up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I'm thinking that the cold air damming is a little stronger than had been modeled. It might still get to 50°, but there's a little more uncertainty than there was even 6-12 hours ago. this is like a minor version of one of those 1993-94 ice storms, that happened quite frequently back then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Still only 36 here. Expected it be warmer by now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 CoCoRaHs snowfall yesterday, parts of the widespread 1/2-1" qpf the past 24 hours ending about 8AM. I know its less than I anticipated I80-II84 corridor NYC WEST to nw NJ and the Pocs. The icing is making up for it... Click for clarity if interested. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, LibertyBell said: this is like a minor version of one of those 1993-94 ice storms, that happened quite frequently back then Nailed it. I remember those storms,always left everything opague white everywhere measured in inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, wdrag said: CoCoRaHs snowfall yesterday, parts of the widespread 1/2-1" qpf the past 24 hours ending about 8AM. I know its less than I anticipated I80-II84 corridor NYC WEST to nw NJ and the Pocs. The icing is making up for it... Click for clarity if interested. I got about an inch and a half outta the little event up here. It actually snowed more then what was predicted,not by much though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 32.2 with rain showers, the water from which is just running off the top of a bullet proof 5" snowpack. My biggest snowfall is only be 6.9" so far but it's been deep winter up here for months now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Deluge in Brightwaters, rumble of thunder too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Dropped the forecast temps yet again. 56 max projected to 41 max projected,jeesh. Talk about bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: this is like a minor version of one of those 1993-94 ice storms, that happened quite frequently back then We have really been lucky closer to the coast that we haven’t had a significant ice storm since 2011 and 2007. Our last major ice storms were in 1994 and 1978. One of the biggest since then was a dangerous glaze one early morning on Long Island with some freezing drizzle that wasn’t really forecast by the models. I don’t remember the exact date but I think it was a Sunday Morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, bluewave said: We have really been lucky closer to the coast that we haven’t had a significant ice storm since 2011 and 2007. Our last major ice storms were in 1994 and 1978. One of the biggest since then was a dangerous glaze one early morning on Long Island with some freezing drizzle that wasn’t really forecast by the models. I don’t remember the exact date but I think it was a Sunday Morning. Yeah average sst's were also cooler back then, that actually contributed to the ice storms in the 90's. Now any fetch off the water,its rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, bluewave said: We have really been lucky closer to the coast that we haven’t had a significant ice storm since 2011 and 2007. Our last major ice storms were in 1994 and 1978. One of the biggest since then was a dangerous glaze one early morning on Long Island with some freezing drizzle that wasn’t really forecast by the models. I don’t remember the exact date but I think it was a Sunday Morning. 2015 https://abc7ny.com/black-ice-rain-weather-accidents/479888/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Yeah average sst's were also cooler back then, that actually contributed to the ice storms in the 90's. Now any fetch off the water,its rain. We’ve had a good amount of snow the last few weeks with south winds even on the island. I’ve been surprised but wind off the water hasn’t hurt us that bad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: We have really been lucky closer to the coast that we haven’t had a significant ice storm since 2011 and 2007. Our last major ice storms were in 1994 and 1978. One of the biggest since then was a dangerous glaze one early morning on Long Island with some freezing drizzle that wasn’t really forecast by the models. I don’t remember the exact date but I think it was a Sunday Morning. I thought 2010-11 was all snow, did we have an ice storm that winter? The February 2011 event maybe-- the one which gave Chicago a blizzard? I wish the NWS kept track of ice accumulations/accretions, that January 1994 event had to be one of our biggest ever, we had close to 2 inches of ice on everything here in SW Nassau County, JFK, never made it to freezing or above. Is there an ice total from that storm for JFK? And that was freezing rain on top of sleet on top of snow! I think we had a major ice storm back in 1973 also but don't remember anything about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, psv88 said: We’ve had a good amount of snow the last few weeks with south winds even on the island. I’ve been surprised but wind off the water hasn’t hurt us that bad Kind of reminds me of February 2015 when even Montauk was getting freezing drizzle on a southeasterly wind lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 2015 https://abc7ny.com/black-ice-rain-weather-accidents/479888/ Yes! Freezing drizzle in February 2015 on an onshore breeze! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, psv88 said: We’ve had a good amount of snow the last few weeks with south winds even on the island. I’ve been surprised but wind off the water hasn’t hurt us that bad Well it is also a known fact that the waters around our area are cooler this year as compared to the last few. If the water is in the 30s then yeah it mitigates faster warming. Its like blowing a fan over a ice sheet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Superstorm dropped the hammer when it changed to ice. I remember the winds pelting everything in sight,it was like buckshot being shotgunned from the sky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Some 60s in south Jersey now. Delaware mid 60s. Lucky! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes! Freezing drizzle in February 2015 on an onshore breeze! temps were above freezing but the ground was well below 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now