ForestHillWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 32/31 here. Looks like 287 is the dividing line between the freezing/above temps. It’s got that glazed look outside… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 12:52 PM, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Yeah my temps here in the bx have been dropping ..from 35 to 32/30f. Expand Even the Bronx will make it into the 40s later.Then the salt crews will probably be out in force for areas with residual standing water later. This has been the story all winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:08 PM, bluewave said: Even the Bronx will make it above 50° later. Then the salt crews will probably be out in force for areas with residual standing water later. This has been the story all winter. Expand We shall see if 50 verifies, as of right now the cold wont budge fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:08 PM, bluewave said: Even the Bronx will make it above 50° later. Then the salt crews will probably be out in force for areas with residual standing water later. This has been the story all winter. Expand Beach it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 33 and rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:02 PM, wdrag said: Pressure fall modulations as wind blows into pressure falls if he ardent is not strong. Allows pockets of colder air nearly to to your north-northeast to return for a little while. Still 30.2F here in Wantage. NAM3K and ECAI 2meters temps seems to have the east fit. Expand Thanks. That explains it, after getting to 31.9 I'm back down to 30.8 now with freezing drizzle in between the occasional freezing rain showers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 So far, the temperature is running colder than had been modeled for New York City. The 2/16 6z NBM had a 13z reading of 39°. The 12z run had 38°. The current reading is 33°. Whether this means that the temperature won't surge to or above 50° still remains to be seen. If, by 20z, readings continue to run well below the modeled output (47° on the 12z NBM), that could be an indication that the high temperature will ultimately fall short of the late day figures currently shown on the guidance. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 temperature here 35.4 down from 36.4 earlier, wind NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:40 PM, donsutherland1 said: So far, the temperature is running colder than had been modeled for New York City. The 2/16 6z NBM had a 13z reading of 39°. The 12z run had 38°. The current reading is 33°. Whether this means that the temperature won't surge to or above 50° still remains to be seen. If, by 20z, readings continue to run well below the modeled output (47° on the 12z NBM), that could be an indication that the high temperature will ultimately fall short of the late day figures currently shown on the guidance. Expand Im on that anomaly,something is off or a unforeseen transfer to the coast later is possible. Colder air is rushing behind the primary low which i believe might be dying in eastern ohio/western pa and the trailing energy down in tenn now moving in to va is the new primary. Watch out if the low exits the southern jersey coast,alas northerly winds keep it colder. Cle to buff back to snow currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:54 PM, bluewave said: The 50° line should be very close to the Bronx later. But it will be a slow push until then. Central Jersey should have the best shot at 60°. Expand Man its gonna close but 60 in southern jerz sounds like a pipe dream rn. The modeling in reguards to thermals are pretty much off by as much as 9 degrees,also no southerly winds rn,means a veryy slow go lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:57 PM, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Man its gonna close but 60 in southern jerz sounds like a pipe dream rn. The modeling in reguards to thermals are pretty much off by as much as 9 degrees lol Expand The HRRR that I posted is spot on for the current temps. So the forecast looks good. It usually dose best in these set ups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:57 PM, bluewave said: The HRRR that I posted is spot in for the current temps. Expand For my location its still 32 at 9am..i dont think the guidance suggested still frz at this time. But its gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:13 PM, Brian5671 said: 33 and rain here. Expand Winters of yore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:40 PM, donsutherland1 said: So far, the temperature is running colder than had been modeled for New York City. The 2/16 6z NBM had a 13z reading of 39°. The 12z run had 38°. The current reading is 33°. Whether this means that the temperature won't surge to or above 50° still remains to be seen. If, by 20z, readings continue to run well below the modeled output (47° on the 12z NBM), that could be an indication that the high temperature will ultimately fall short of the late day figures currently shown on the guidance. Expand Like clockwork… Take the under 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Stuck at 33 with light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 They changed my forecast high to 42 degees,i just saw my point and click. Wow!!. Thats a major upset. 50's wont make it far only because no one figures that the northern primary low is dying and a new one has taken its place much further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 2:00 PM, Bxstormwatcher360 said: For my location its still 32 at 9am..i dont think the guidance suggested still frz at this time. But its gonna be close. Expand The Bronx mesonet is 33° and the HRRR forecast was 34°. So very close. Need to use the higher resolution guidance in situations like this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 2:14 PM, bluewave said: The Bronx mesonet is 33° and the HRRR forecast was 34°. So very close. Need to use the higher resolution guidance in situations like this. Expand Yeah my new forecast high is 42 maybe 43 ..thats a big gap from 55 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 29 here secondary roads are a disaster here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 2:18 PM, snywx said: 29 here secondary roads are a disaster here Expand Yeah,its just not warming up fast enough for you northern folk unfortunately. Stay safe up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 2:21 PM, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Yeah,its just not warming up fast enough for you northern folk unfortunately. Stay safe up there. Expand Never expected to get above 35 here. you guys down there should get into the 40s soon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 2:21 PM, snywx said: Never expected to get above 35 here. you guys down there should get into the 40s soon Expand Yeah ill be waiting,still sitting at 32-33f here in the no bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 2:14 PM, bluewave said: The Bronx mesonet is 33° and the HRRR forecast was 34°. So very close. Need to use the higher resolution guidance in situations like this. Expand The 11z HRRR maxed out the Bronx at 57⁰ around 4pm. The 12z HRRR maxed out the Bronx at 50⁰ around 6pm. The latest 13z HRRR maxes out the Bronx at 47⁰ around 6pm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 2:29 PM, NorthShoreWx said: The 11z HRRR maxed out the Bronx at 57⁰ around 4pm. The 12z HRRR maxed out the Bronx at 50⁰ around 6pm. The latest 13z HRRR maxes out the Bronx at 47⁰ around 4pm. Expand Keep it going,my location sez 42°f..so the trend is real . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Real reasons why nobody gets above 50. Everything to the coast,south of all guidance. The trail energy in tenn/va is gonna bomb somewhere off the coast south of us,current movement is ene?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:40 PM, donsutherland1 said: So far, the temperature is running colder than had been modeled for New York City. The 2/16 6z NBM had a 13z reading of 39°. The 12z run had 38°. The current reading is 33°. Whether this means that the temperature won't surge to or above 50° still remains to be seen. If, by 20z, readings continue to run well below the modeled output (47° on the 12z NBM), that could be an indication that the high temperature will ultimately fall short of the late day figures currently shown on the guidance. Expand I saw Bluewave EC High res post but if it hits those numbers its for 3 hours only in mid afternoon. For one thing... a south wind is now drawing on modified cold off the ocean and interior NJ down to BWI. yes it can hit those values but if the wind goes light south and shifts strong west, it wont grab the coastal NJ warmth. There is time... imo, unless someone disagrees (lets have it!), the EC AI had nailed this days in advance a reason for my alarming post a couple days ago about icing and branches. EC AI is only 6 hourly for me but it's good. On sunny days I view out as a BL T (add 10 for a max). On precip days, its the number within 2F. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 2:29 PM, NorthShoreWx said: The 11z HRRR maxed out the Bronx at 57⁰ around 4pm. The 12z HRRR maxed out the Bronx at 50⁰ around 6pm. The latest 13z HRRR maxes out the Bronx at 47⁰ around 6pm. Expand Par for the course with these set ups as the northern boundary fights to hang on. Looks like mid 40s for the Bronx and 50s on Long Island with the 60s in Central NJ. JFK is already up to 39°. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 2:31 PM, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Keep it going,my location sez 42°f..so the trend is real . Expand On the other hand, 13z HRRR gets my neighborhood (further north than most of the Bronx) into the low 50s and keeps them there between 4 and 7pm. Bottom line, that warm sector is going to be too close to rule out it blasting right into or through much of Westchester County based on waivering short term model runs. Maybe it will, maybe it won't...seen this rodeo before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Wantage NJ 935A 31.1 and drizzling drizzle. Radial thickness 0.20 and branches, small trees coming down. Power outages so far scattered but you can see are increasing in CT/PA and soon e NYS. Will try to get pics out soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 2:37 PM, NorthShoreWx said: On the other hand, 13z HRRR gets my neighborhood (further north than most of the Bronx) into the low 50s and keeps them there between 4 and 7pm. Bottom line, that warm sector is going to be too close to rule out it blasting right into or through much of Westchester County based on waivering short term model runs. Maybe it will, maybe it won't...seen this rodeo before. Expand That warm sector better be a true southerly wind to achieve mid 50's here. If it does its gonna be brief anyway but imo ,it doesnt hit 50's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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