wdrag Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This thread should essentially close out the multi event thread, transferring event comments and serving to report snow/ice obs later today-tonight, rainfall totals sometime Sunday, followed by wind gust reports 50MPH or greater including damaging wind late Sunday afternoon-midday Monday. One graphic added is the ECMWF EPS max wind gust graphic 1PM Sunday-!PM Monday... highest gusts showing up on the ridges and mainly late Sunday afternoon-midday Monday. Sometimes this graphic can be too strong with wind gusts 5 to 10 MPH less than modeled... still even if its a little less, the strong wind is probably gong to impact some of us late Sunday-Monday morning. The hope for our I84 friends is that the east facing slopes of the hills above 1000 feet will see temps rise above freezing tomorrow morning to melt snow and ice off the branches (watch for falling frozen debris) or widespread power outages would develop, especially Catskills-Litchfield Hills and possibly the northern Poconos. As it stands, some power outages expected here and there and probably a good idea to shelter everything that is vulnerable and preventable from some damage. AI ECMWF 2m 6 hr temps have risen a bit cyclically through the 00z/15 cycle but still looks problematic whether it rises above freezing north of I94 Sunday. No matter, that region along and N of I84 should try to safely remove snow and ice early Sunday afternoon from travel ways, or it will probably freeze solid Sunday evening and remain through the work week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 22f cloudy expecting 4-6” here with lots of ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 23 minutes ago, snywx said: 22f cloudy expecting 4-6” here with lots of ice We’re in identical camps here, 4-6 with right around .25” and then the winds kick up. Nasty combo all around. Getting into the 40s for even a few hours would help melt the ice to some degree, at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Of continuing interest to me... ECAI...06z versions says you dont get above freezing (maybe 36F-corrected at 1129AM down 10F) til between 2P-6P tomorrow... Understated event I think north of I84 and combo snow and ice is imo probably warnable but just my opinion. I just don't understand our sticking snowfall/ice accumulation criteria in mixed events. We seem not to be growing more understanding overall impact... probably don't want individual forecasters going rogue... I just dont understand. Protecting life and property is our job... at T24, we need to be thinking going for the best possible, despite criteria-not by thinking about the lowest warmest elevation appreciation of our forecast. The graphic below is the WSSI-P experimental conservative probabilities for MODERATE impact, with population-urban influencing the probs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 32. Not expecting much here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Cloudy 24.1/10.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 26/11 in Chester; point and click has 1-3”, followed by ice before the wind and rain tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Need 2.2" to make it to 40" this season Pretty confident we'll get at least that today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Need 2.2" to make it to 40" this season Pretty confident we'll get at least that today. Need 0.5" to make it to 10" this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Maybe an inch or two here as a tease before huge torch and rain that washes everything away. Looks like this will be among the 90% of SWFEs that end up lame disappointments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Need 2.2" to make it to 40" this season Pretty confident we'll get at least that today. I should be around 35" for the year after this event. Driving will be an experience tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Maybe an inch or two here as a tease before huge torch and rain that washes everything away. Looks like this will be among the 90% of SWFEs that end up lame disappointments. JM i don't consider this a SWFE, this to me is a full blown cutter with a CAD signature at the onset! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 43 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 32. Not expecting much here Yeah models like RGEM and HRRR have gotten warmer for our area. A slushy inch on colder surfaces at most for our area, but now I'm skeptical that even that will happen. It will be nice to see the flakes coming down though, and it'll be a nice little event for areas to the north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah models like RGEM and HRRR have gotten warmer for our area. A slushy inch on colder surfaces at most for our area, but now I'm skeptical that even that will happen. It will be nice to see the flakes coming down though, and it'll be a nice little event for areas to the north and west. It'll be mid 30s going to be tough unless we get heavier rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 All eyes turn towards Thursday 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Maybe an inch or two here as a tease before huge torch and rain that washes everything away. Looks like this will be among the 90% of SWFEs that end up lame disappointments. Deep cutters aren't considered SWFEs, are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Deep cutters aren't considered SWFEs, are they? The overall flow as the precip is arriving is from the SW and the low redevelops eventually, just N of us. I'm not sure of what's "officially" considered a SWFE, it's precip moving NE and overrunning colder air at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 31 minutes ago, snywx said: I should be around 35" for the year after this event. Driving will be an experience tonight Yes. The ice might make it very dangerous to drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The overall flow as the precip is arriving is from the SW and the low redevelops eventually, just N of us. I'm not sure of what's "officially" considered a SWFE, it's precip moving NE and overrunning colder air at the surface. Except for mainly the stray clipper, almost all precipitation events here in the winter arrive from the southwest in some way. I've been assuming SWFEs involve overrunning warm air in the absence of a deep trough or surface low. I realize it's more of a board classification and probably not a term one would see in text books, so I guess we'd need to look to the utility of classifying them that way to determine where to draw the lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Steady snow, moderate in places is breaking out now across south central PA. This includes the Harrisburg and York areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Altoona PA reporting heavy snow, 1/4 mile visibility 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Border of E MD/PA reporting 1" - 1.5" rates almost immediately, 1" in 45 mins on ground near Manchester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I think a few people are going to be surprized when it arrives as moderate to heavy snow. This is not the shredded type of precip shield either. Also of note,the warm push isnt as pronounced as the models have it with deeper cold involved. I dont see how we dont get more then an inch here imo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It’s 32 where I am on LI. Not expecting much at all. But that was expected anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, WestBabylonWeather said: It’s 32 where I am on LI. Not expecting much at all. But that was expected anyway Youll get some snow outta this..i dont think this event pictches a shuout anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: I think a few people are going to be surprized when it arrives as moderate to heavy snow. This is not the shredded type of precip shield either. Also of note,the warm push isnt as pronounced as the models have it with deeper cold involved. I dont see how we dont get more then an inch here imo. We're going to have a few hours to warm up before the snow gets here. Dews are in the upper teens so we will wetbulb down a little, but we'll need a heavy steady snow shield to keep it snowing at a rate that will accumulate and keep the mid level warmth at bay. Models almost across the board have gotten warmer/lamer down here in the last 24 hours, so they're not impressed. They could be wrong but not likely. Take 1-2" and call that a win, then see it get soaked away. The winds look like the big story on the coast, maybe 60mph gusts coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Nice 2-4" event for most in heavy daytime fashion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Border of E MD/PA reporting 1" - 1.5" rates almost immediately, 1" in 45 mins on ground near Manchester I am seeing a lot of that on traffic cams out in central PA. Visibility drops quickly as it moves in. This is happening in Reading now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Tatamy said: I am seeing a lot of that on traffic cams out in central PA. Visibility drops quickly as it moves in. This is happening in Reading now. This is my thinking when it arrives here in the city,some of those rates are going to be impressive,im easily taking the over on the inch here. The best part is the precip trying to outrun the warm sector,its already clearing out in parts of ohio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 At the current rate of motion we should be into the snow by 12:30 - 1:00 PM. Flurries are coming down now not too far west of Allentown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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