Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: in the grand scheme of things, at this range, I would much rather see this solution than washed out crap like the GFS No doubt I’m totally fine with it, but many will complain just be ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: in the grand scheme of things, at this range, I would much rather see this solution than washed out crap like the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Yeah all set with the hr 162 jack. Good look is all I need to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: No doubt I’m totally fine with it, but many will complain just be ready yeah. I will say that this kind of retrograding block setup is better for SNE than farther north. rather be in HFD than CON, that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah all set with the hr 162 jack. Good look is all I need to see. I’m not even looking at OP runs other than pure entertainment at this stage. Show me ensemble mean and spread until we get to tomorrow night or sunday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Meh, the D6.5 position(s) thru that period are an incremental improvement in track closeness enough to justify the trend continues. The total blend of all guidance now, compared to 24 hours ago, is already a worldly different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Fairly confined precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m not even looking at OP runs other than pure entertainment at this stage. Show me ensemble mean and spread until we get to tomorrow night or sunday. agree - and I'm trying to impress that trend is really more important at this range - including the ensemble mean in that isn't a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, RDRY said: Fairly confined precip field. That’s usually how these bombing lows go. Sucking in a tight precip field toward its core. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That’s usually how these bombing lows go. Sucking in a tight precip field toward its core. If this is truly coming, you know darn well we will start sweating the ticks NW, to the point it gets too close to western Long Island. Some of those far western leaners in the ensembles should get some attention. Hopefully it doesn't end up congrats upstate NY and PF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 EPS mean is a tad deeper ( 3 or so mb...) this 12z cycle... Also presenting there are more members on the western envelope suggesting there may yet be corrections toward the NW in general - that's what that metric is used for..etc. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Agree John, was noting that too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 00z 168 vs 12z 156, left to right respectively ... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 In fact... that is a rather large spread uncertainty there. There's over 20 members along the W-NW arc...It's almost puzzling why the mean PP is situated as far out there as it is given all that tension. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 58 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Rays gonna flip .. solid run but verbatim it’s LBSW big time Why? I expect it.....not the type of system for high end here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: In fact... that is a rather large spread uncertainty there. There's over 20 members along the W-NW arc...It's almost puzzling why the mean PP is situated as far out there as it is given all that tension. My guess is there’s a bunch of members that aren’t even “registering” as lows. Basically your failed phases/whiffs way off southeast and it skews the mean. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why? I expect it.....not the type for for high end here Prob like a solid 12-18 is the realistic high end scenario for us when you look at the pattern aloft. Yeah, there’s a few plausible exotic evolutions that might give us 2 feet but they are at the tail end of the distribution of outcomes. I think I’d want to see H5 stall this thing a little better for the 20”+ threat to increase…and I don’t mean like stall for 36 hours or anything…more like capture it in just the right spot and enhance the goods for 4-6 hours which is usually what turns our 12-16 inchers into 20-24 inchers. We all know most of the snow falls inside a 12-18 hour window, but having 8-9 hours of super intense rates versus 12-15 hours makes the difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Woof, Woof! Hoping the BITE will be worse than the bark. I assume there's a New Moon? When Ginx speaks people listen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Ray’s sidechick back…and you looked this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Pretty good look at this lead on the ensembles, What i would like to see is more of these lows tracking thru the GOM, Going ENE as it gets to SNE is no good up here if this system is that compact like some of the OP runs show but we have a long ways to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 So the 162 hr is ominous ... I rarely use that adjective as I hate the hyperbole grabbing when describing this stuff, but having members be as low as the upper 950s west of the BM, look at it this way. there was poorer phasing on previous cycles, when the spread was less. Now that we have better phasing at least suggested as possible, if not quite possible, we see the western spread balloon further out with some exceptionally deep members. I don't believe the two aspects are divorced in this. So, the implication of a 965 mb low W of the BM, ( averaging 957 to 972) would be a tree leaning white out over eastern SE NH/E MA and RI 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob like a solid 12-18 is the realistic high end scenario for us when you look at the pattern aloft. Yeah, there’s a few plausible exotic evolutions that might give us 2 feet but they are at the tail end of the distribution of outcomes. I think I’d want to see H5 stall this thing a little better for the 20”+ threat to increase…and I don’t mean like stall for 36 hours or anything…more like capture it in just the right spot and enhance the goods for 4-6 hours which is usually what turns our 12-16 inchers into 20-24 inchers. We all know most of the snow falls inside a 12-18 hour window, but having 8-9 hours of super intense rates versus 12-15 hours makes the difference. Agree on the high end range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 54 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m not even looking at OP runs other than pure entertainment at this stage. Show me ensemble mean and spread until we get to tomorrow night or sunday. Definitely a move NW from 12 Z.Nice western cluster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah. I will say that this kind of retrograding block setup is better for SNE than farther north. rather be in HFD than CON, that's for sure I know this whole set up blows for me...don't worry, not going to take it out on you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know this whole set up blows for me...don't worry, not going to take it out on you. I don't like these at all really. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: I don't like these at all really. A lot of the fun for me with these is dreaming high-end, and this is capped. Sucks.....7 consecutive subpar seasons it is, but at least I had a wintry stretch this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A lot of the fun for me with these is dreaming high-end, and this is capped. Sucks.....7 consecutive subpar seasons it is, but at least I had a wintry stretch this month. I'm nickel and diming my way to climo after a slow start, Its hard to get an A to track NNE up to here before its LBSW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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