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About time we had Miller A Feb.20th


Ginx snewx
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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That never really seemed realistic with this set up 

Checking in and saw all the great posts…then the big let down.  But the jog east/miss was so predictable…happens pretty much every time with a big bomb being forecast.    Most of us knew it was coming.  

Sometimes they come back, sometimes they don’t.   Knowing this year and finding every way to fail …it’s probably not coming back north/west enough for us here in SNE.   Can’t seem to reel anything in this season. Disappointing. 
 

Up in Northern Maine…20” blizzard coming in later this afternoon and overnight.  So if we can’t get it at home on Thursday, at least I’ll see it here today. 

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39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Checking in and saw all the great posts…then the big let down.  But the jog east/miss was so predictable…happens pretty much every time with a big bomb being forecast.    Most of us knew it was coming.  

Sometimes they come back, sometimes they don’t.   Knowing this year and finding every way to fail …it’s probably not coming back north/west enough for us here in SNE.   Can’t seem to reel anything in this season. Disappointing. 
 

Up in Northern Maine…20” blizzard coming in later this afternoon and overnight.  So if we can’t get it at home on Thursday, at least I’ll see it here today. 

We knew. Enjoy winter up there. Spring will get sprung soon down here and we move on to lawn care and shanking golf balls. 

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We knew. Enjoy winter up there. Spring will get sprung soon down here and we move on to lawn care and shanking golf balls. 

Unfortunately, decent Spring weather is a ways off it seems, but I get your drift.  
 

Regarding the miss to the south and East was expected…the crazy part is this happens pretty much every time at this lead time…the difference in some other seasons,  is they end up coming back.   But this year she just doesn’t want to play ball.  
 

I’ll check in later this evening and see how many posts there will be by 7 or 8 pm.  If there’s less than 100 new posts..I won’t even bother looking. 

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2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

If I had a first guess for here, id say 4-8". I haven't locked it in and realized it could also whiff, or end up verifying higher if things trend slightly better 4.5 days out. 

I think a whiff is pretty unlikely for anyone in SNE. Whiff meaning not at least getting a few inches 

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13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Unfortunately, decent Spring weather is a ways off it seems, but I get your drift.  
 

Regarding the miss to the south and East was expected…the crazy part is this happens pretty much every time at this lead time…the difference in some other seasons,  is they end up coming back.   But this year she just doesn’t want to play ball.  
 

I’ll check in later this evening and see how many posts there will be by 7 or 8 pm.  If there’s less than 100 new posts..I won’t even bother looking. 

EPS says we start with Morch

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57 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

One of the more annoying things to me is when people say "it was never going to happen" or "the pattern never supported it" when multiple different products showed the exact thing for multiple cycles.

Like, I guess yall do meteorological physics better than nwp and have better access to initialization conditions than the data that feeds them.

To me, there's no difference between the statements "it's definitely coming" and "it's never going to happen." Both are severely lacking of humility.

Well, the flip side of that is "why do we have forecasters if we have these elaborate computers resolving meteorological physics from the data concerning initialized conditions being fed to them"????

Well, first of all, we don't know if all of said data being fed in is correct....Secondly, forecasters can add an element of subjectivity that the computer cannot and make a determination regarding which output is likely to actually occur and which is not. It has become obvious to me that the ridge alignment out west just sucks this season in that it does not allow for proficient enough phasing close to the northeast coast because it's poorly situated and oriented. However, for whatever reason, the guidance is blind to that in the extended medium range and keeps trying to develop these tempests that strike the NE US coast, but once we get within 5 days, they can more adequately resolve this and arrive at the correct, dull solution. 

Express whichever sentiment you wish, but the ultimate mediator is the scoreboard.

 

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3 hours ago, CT Rain said:

This hobby sucks. 

:lol:

... not that my opinion is worth a shit .. .but, there's time for this to come back as an albeit more progressive climate coastal version, for along and SE of a Del Marva - SE of White Plains to S NH. Just may not be giant.

Obviously don't have to tell you, just sayn'     Grousing and sense of loss as to the slow moving 968 mb juggernauts, aside, the N/stream in this potential phase ordeal appears to be stable to within 10 .. 20% all along.  I suspect there is a tendency to focus there, and seeing the low becomes flatter and weaker in the last 24 hours, ... folks aren't correcting for much else?  But, it's not really the N/stream aspects that is the problem from what I'm seeing.  The S/W ejected out of eastern Pacific decided to wack some power off the wave space in these recent runs.  If the S/Stream were stronger, that would help entice the N/Stream subsume mechanics to trigger sooner due to dynamic height fall/feed-backs...etc etc. 

The relay noses in or begins to at during these runs going forward.   Particularly tonight..   It may be worth it to monitor the mechanics as they are relaying into the more physically realized sounding domain.

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Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EPS also said we were getting a KU on Thursday yesterday morning.. F the EPS lol 

Maybe this is the timeframe of all the models losing the storm just to bring it back. I mean come on , all the models had a big hit just 2 days ago and now poor.

 

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Just now, MJO812 said:

Maybe this is the timeframe of all the models losing the storm just to bring it back. I mean come on , all the models had a big hit just 2 days ago and now poor.

 

I think we are just so exhausted of getting teased, if this were 2019 or prior than ya we'd all be waiting for this to come back, but 99% of all storms have screwed us since then so we are jaded.. Obviously it can come back, but most don't expect it..

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe this is the timeframe of all the models losing the storm just to bring it back. I mean come on , all the models had a big hit just 2 days ago and now poor.

 

I'll be staying with friends on the Upper West Side so I'm hoping for a snowy Central Park!

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1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

This winter hasn't been great, but it's been better than the last several winters.  At least it has felt and looked like winter.

Eh...as far as snow retention, yes.....but total snowfall and storm activity? I'd take last year considering the latter two. Jan 7, 2024 was an incredible experience that I would part ways with every storm I have had this season to witness again.

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1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

This winter hasn't been great, but it's been better than the last several winters.  At least it has felt and looked like winter.

I'm closing in on 40" and there has been snow on the ground for weeks, so definitely better for winter appeal than last few winters.  My picnic table has about 16" on it and the snow banks in town are going to be formidable.  If it ended today I would give it a grade of C

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm closing in on 40" and there has been snow on the ground for weeks, so definitely better for winter appeal than last few winters.  My picnic table has about 16" on it and the snow banks in town are going to be formidable.  If it ended today I would give it a grade of C

I'm just over 30"....which is worse than last year if it doesn't snow in a meaningful manner again, which is possible.

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