40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's not a true Miller A, but does have the LBSW characteristics. 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right....hardly any are....like I said, its a spectrum. But this one has a large s stream constribution, hence the "LBSW characteristics". 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I still contend Jan15 was an A That had far greater N stream contribution than s stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 38 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It is not. Not for WOR. Can't say that for sure yet either, but I get where you're coming from. It's all about phasing, and we sure won't have a good idea on that for probably 4 more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Throughout our area? Sure are..plenty, they just evolve differently from this one. Ah I think it would be interesting to test these assumptions, either way. My personal hunch is that a bulk density on a scatter plot of total snow ( perhaps using the linear average of HFD/PVD/ORH/BOS for each point analysis), would reveal that 6 to 9" should be the more typical climatology. Yes, there are 12" events, but they may be proven rarer compared to a real analysis. Interesting.... we've never down that in here. But, "in here" isn't science as much as it's model induced, dopamine drug addiction hahaha so go figure - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Reading the good analysis in here and the caution flags. I’d have to bet against this event being a big one at least in a broad area. I would agree right now it's congrats SNE to ENH Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Ah I think it would be interesting to test these assumptions, either way. My personal notion is that bulk density on a scatter plot of total snow ( perhaps using the linear average of HFD/PVD/ORH/BOS for each point analysis), would argue that 6 to 9" should be the more typical climatology. Yes, there are 12" events, but they may be proven rarer compared to a real analysis. Interesting.... we've never down that in here. But, "in here" isn't science as much as it's model induced, dopamine drug addiction hahaha so go figure - Widepread 12" is very doable....agree on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That had far greater N stream contribution than s stream. Just sitting smiling storm. Jan 17 was cool too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Just sitting smiling storm. Jan 17 was cool too We'll see what happens....always good debating with you because you know your stuff. I just feel a high end outcome FOR US a la Jan 2015 or Jan 2005 is less likely in this instance relative to other large storm potential given the type of evolution. Hopefully a good storm, nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We'll see what happens....always good debating with you because you know your stuff. I just feel a high end outcome FOR US a la Jan 2015 or Jan 2005 is less likely in this instance relative to other large storm potential given the type of evolution. Hopefully a good storm, nonetheless. Yea good stuff. There return period for 2 footer is decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 20 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Can't say that for sure yet either, but I get where you're coming from. It's all about phasing, and we sure won't have a good idea on that for probably 4 more days If it was a true southern stream bowling ball, I would be giddy. This is another n stream dominated ull that needs to phase with the southern vort. Those are almost always further east and later developed then what guidance indicates. I trust the skynet for this reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 looks like the ICON wants to play at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I see what Luke is saying, but if that confluence weakens near us, look out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Icon scrapes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: looks like the ICON wants to play at 12z yeah, slightly better phasing in the total manifold of that solution, compared to the 00z. again, this system's yes or no is probably something like 90% related to how proficiently the phasing ultimately is... less and that S/stream doesn't have a prayer at getting up here... but, a better/deeper N/stream entanglement foists it N and then there's a party that leads to our baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Icon scrapes SE MASS special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 trend continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Good analysis..this will evolve and look different as they all do with time. DTBD. Hopefully for SNE…the details end up better than we’ve seen so far… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah, slightly better phasing in the total manifold of that solution, compared to the 00z. again, this system's yes or no is probably something like 90% related to how proficiently the phasing ultimately is... less and that S/stream doesn't have a prayer at getting up here... but, a better/deeper N/stream entanglement foists it N and then there's a party that leads to our baby. Yes, exactly....need a very proficient phase to get us....the more flawed phases just nail the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I see what Luke is saying, but if that confluence weakens near us, look out. Its all so precarious when you are reliant upon a phase with a high degree of proficiency...especially in a la nina season. I'd rather just have a northern stream bowling ball roll under LI, but I understand why at this latitude he would prefer a pure southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Good analysis..this will evolve and look different as they all do with time. DTBD. Hopefully for SNE…the details end up better than we’ve seen so far… DTBD? Deliver The Big Dog? Doubt The Big Dog? Drop Trou Bang Dongs? Don't Think Be Dumb? Damage (in) Tolland's Body Double? Damn Tight Back Door? Dumping Tries But Doesn't? Digits To Be Doubled? So many options - it's GOT to be one of those! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 gfs gonna ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: gfs gonna ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS seems like it will be well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’m gonna need to DRINK a Miller if this latest threat doesn’t happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Cyclone-68 said: I’m gonna need to DRINK a Miller if this latest threat doesn’t happen Sounds like punishment of the worst kind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, UnitedWx said: Sounds like punishment of the worst kind! Ha. I wouldn’t touch a Miller with salad tongs but the pun wouldn’t have made sense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS seems like it will be well offshore. mmm the ns is behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, JC-CT said: mmm the ns is behind I could tell at H5. Srn vort sort of drags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I could tell at H5. Srn vort sort of drags. well, only like 25 more model cycles to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 No capture, buh-by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 SPV has trended slower and further west the last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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