mahk_webstah Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t know if I’m willing to say who is or is not in a good spot this early. But I’d say right now we have an interesting look. The fact that it is still on ens is good. If there tomorrow we in bizness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: lol. This thread should have been called "Miller A, Miller B, or Miller Time?" because i feel a lot of weenies gonna be hittin the bottle if this gets rug pulled. We're still ~5 days away. try to keep expectations in check Yup.. Equal chances for a missed / late phase, hit, or congrats DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Our AI overlord and the gfs being nothing is definitely a flag. We’ve seen the euro be way over amped several times this winter. Id keep expectations at zero for at least 2-3 more days. We know how this is probably going to play out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Our AI overlord and the gfs being nothing is definitely a flag. We’ve seen the euro be way over amped several times this winter. Id keep expectations at zero for at least 2-3 more days. We know how this is probably going to play out Our beloved AI now crushes your backyard.. flopping around more than LeBron in the playoffs 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Our AI overlord and the gfs being nothing is definitely a flag. We’ve seen the euro be way over amped several times this winter. Id keep expectations at zero for at least 2-3 more days. We know how this is probably going to play out AI shifted west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Our beloved AI now crushes your backyard.. flopping around more than LeBron in the playoffs yeah it's moved about 400 miles since 18z last night. Now a Cape/EMA crusher. It will likely trend further west, even though I'd lock in right there if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: Id like to see a bit more continuity between the American suite and European, that gives me a bit of pause. I mean GFS/GEFS want nothing to do with it Yeah, I wanna see some flinches by the GFS in the next 24 hrs. I have noticed with the GFS, especially this year. It becomes stubborn once it latches on to a solution. It did this in January, when every other model showed a miss for the most part. On the other hand despite a few Euro OP runs, it was mostly ots and never wavered. The the GFS started to buckle and eventually caved. Now here we are, the roles are reversed, but the Euro has support this time from its own ensembles and other guidance. The GFS has the, icon? Not saying this is coming yet, I think we need to get this weekend's storm figured out in the models before we can get a better consensus. This storm tomorrow isn't some 1005 low coming through, it's a rapidly deepening system that will probably have some affect down stream to our system on Thursday.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yup.. Equal chances for a missed / late phase, hit, or congrats DC. Congrats DC has decent support 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 AI keeps moving west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: yeah it's moved about 400 miles since 18z last night. Now a Cape/EMA crusher. It will likely trend further west, even though I'd lock in right there if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Congrats DC has decent support They are def in the most "guaranteed" spot for 6”+ at this stage probably 60% (eps shows that actually). Almost every solution nails them.. also it’s more day 4 for them, day 5 for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looks like Skynet has become self awared. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It's been awful with cyclogenesis this year. Next time you read a magazine article pimping how AI based models will soon be better than physics based models, take the believe it when you see it approach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, radarman said: It's been awful with cyclogenesis this year. Next time you read a magazine article pimping how AI based models will soon be better than physics based models, take the believe it when you see it approach. But it has funny AI generated pics on lock! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, radarman said: It's been awful with cyclogenesis this year. Next time you read a magazine article pimping how AI based models will soon be better than physics based models, take the believe it when you see it approach. Yes. Appreciate your opinion. But you know the doctorates have the H5 scores posted above their bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Better phasing on my least favorite model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, JC-CT said: The GEFS don't even have a Euro like solution within its envelope. It's a flag, but also an indictment of the ensemble system The GFS has come a long way, but even so I will never fully trust it with nor'easters. Its Feb '13 blizzard failure still astounds me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yes. Appreciate your opinion. But you know the doctorates have the H5 scores posted above their bed. I think it has more promise for short term advection based nowcasting algorithms. Google has code in github you can run. IMO it's still not as good as DFT based approaches but closer and could eventually be an improvement. At some point it may be able to somewhat resolve CI based on implied OFB positions. A DFT based alg won't be able to do that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Better phasing on my least favorite model Ray will love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Ray will love it BDR to Baltimore buried damn , another possible solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’ll take it but not the sexiest outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 ICON way way nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 27 minutes ago, Hoth said: The GFS has come a long way, but even so I will never fully trust it with nor'easters. Its Feb '13 blizzard failure still astounds me. One of my favorite storms. What happened with the gfs on that one I don’t remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, DJln491 said: One of my favorite storms. What happened with the gfs on that one I don’t remember I think she was just a brush ots until go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Moral of the story with the GFS is it went from a more fish solution to having some impact on land, so an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 the E/ENE movement after it bombs out does help it stay cool here. Let's hope we can keep that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, DJln491 said: One of my favorite storms. What happened with the gfs on that one I don’t remember It basically had a whiff right up until snow started falling. It was just completely out to lunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Oh, the irony. Someone somewhere is going to be feeling they got screwed. Striving for perfection as in knowing you're in the jack D10 from an actual event occurring. The models never waffle, all look about the same and it comes to verify. What a boring hobby, there would be no need of the forum. Science perfected which will never happen The tracking (chase) has always been the interest not the event itself. Throw-out the IMBY mentality and just take what you get not what could have been. LUCKY SOB's Y'all don't appreciate how lucky y'all are! Back to my free airshow. F18's buzzing the sky in the 80F COC day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Hoth said: It basically had a whiff right up until snow started falling. It was just completely out to lunch. Euro also had us with 24+ inside 24hrs for jan15. No model is immune to choking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 39 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Better phasing on my least favorite model So as of now the GFS is on its own? Man what a victory lap it could take if it somehow comes out on top.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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