MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:15 PM Seeing the Nam struggle like this is weird since it's a close range model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Tuesday at 03:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:21 PM 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Seeing the Nam struggle like this is weird since it's a close range model. It has had at least 3 complete failures at hour 6 and initialization this year.. December 20th had 3-6"+ for SNE for that morning while no other model bit and there was a dusting in some towns.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted Tuesday at 03:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:22 PM Ain't falling for the ole Nammy. thinking some light snow here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Tuesday at 03:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:23 PM 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Seeing the Nam struggle like this is weird since it's a close range model. I don't think it is weird to see the NAM struggle. Especially since the big error with the UL-surface interaction begins at about 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Tuesday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:24 PM Reggie seems to be feeling it a bit but not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Tuesday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:25 PM Yeah the fact that Reggie and Icon didn’t seem interested prettt much discredits the NAM solution. Even the 3k was kind of skeptical of the 12k solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Tuesday at 03:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:26 PM 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the fact that Reggie and Icon didn’t seem interested prettt much discredits the NAM solution. Even the 3k was kind of skeptical of the 12k solution. Ya she gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Tuesday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:28 PM Maybe the cape can pull off advisory snow.. Reggie has snow showers around maybe a inch for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted Tuesday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:28 PM The Nam solution isn't happening, but could be a bunch of light snow, dustings to an inch variety...just enough to cover the sheet ice and make it even more dangerous to traverse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Tuesday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:32 PM 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Seeing the Nam struggle like this is weird since it's a close range model. But its not close, You want the NAM at 24 hrs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM If I’m wrong please correct me but why does it seem the computer models are becoming less accurate every year? And what needs to happen to fix that? More funding? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Tuesday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:46 PM 12z GFS says NO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Tuesday at 03:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:51 PM Heh ... been awhile since we had a NAM coup. Maybe it's time for a wiener solution to work out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Tuesday at 03:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:53 PM 14 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: If I’m wrong please correct me but why does it seem the computer models are becoming less accurate every year? And what needs to happen to fix that? More funding? They aren’t less accurate. We’ve just gotten spoiled at their accuracy increase in the last 15 years. We’ve tracked a lot of storms from over a week out that didn’t waiver too hard…that was almost unheard of in the 2005-2010 years. This particular storm never looked good for us once we got inside of 6 days…if it was 2008 instead of 2025, we would’ve never even really given it a second thought other than clown range fodder…but the increase in accuracy of the models in the last decade-plus has conditioned us to take a D6-7 threat somewhat seriously. So it actually produces some feeling of disappointment or being deceived by guidance when the rug is pulled at 132 hours instead of just laughing it off as clown range. 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Tuesday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:59 PM the funny thing is the change on the NAM happens near Iowa in about 24 hours.. the ull is stronger and further south compared to everything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Tuesday at 04:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:12 PM 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: the funny thing is the change on the NAM happens near Iowa in about 24 hours.. the ull is stronger and further south compared to everything else Will it be right or will it be wrong? We just don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Tuesday at 04:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:17 PM Wonder what the NAM EPS has to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Tuesday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:24 PM 11 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Will it be right or will it be wrong? We just don't know I fully expect the Nam to go back SE at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Tuesday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:06 PM 42 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I fully expect the Nam to go back SE at 18z And what if it doesn’t lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM Just now, allgame830 said: And what if it doesn’t lol I would be shocked.. nothing else Is even close to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM Just now, ineedsnow said: I would be shocked.. nothing else Is even close to it Agreed I was just making a point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Tuesday at 05:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:10 PM 1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said: If I’m wrong please correct me but why does it seem the computer models are becoming less accurate every year? And what needs to happen to fix that? More funding? I think what's happening is that the atmosphere around the world has been so volatile lately. Lot of things going on, lot of fast flows. It throws everything off and it's very hard to figure out what pieces will come together. As far as the storm for Thursday and The NAM model bringing it further north... It probably isn't correct, but we have had some instances where a storm would start to trend back Northwest slowly. I remember a few times where our storm Even within 24 to 36 hours kept on trending further Northwest where it would bring snows back into Connecticut, even when it showed a few days earlier. Nothing. So there's always that possibility. But I'm not wearing rose colored glasses, and I do not expect this to happen. But if it does, it would be a nice surprise for everyone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Tuesday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:24 PM Maybe the NAM is sniffing out some sort of IVT as the upper level low tries to pull some moisture back, or just cocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Tuesday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:36 PM 10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Maybe the NAM is sniffing out some sort of IVT as the upper level low tries to pull some moisture back, or just cocked. Didn't the Euro last night also show some kind of pullback of some of the snow. Almost like an inverted trough ish. That could be something, but again, it would probably only affect areas all the way out east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted Tuesday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:37 PM Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: Didn't the Euro last night also show some kind of pullback of some of the snow. Almost like an inverted trough ish. That could be something, but again, it would probably only affect areas all the way out east 12z Euro has already backed off that solution unfortunately... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM 2 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: 12z Euro has already backed off that solution unfortunately... Yeah, this is definitely Dead in the water. Still a hard one to swallow though. From what we saw 5 days ago. All the models last week were showing it and it was on the radar of all the forecasts for this Thursday until we hit Sunday of this weekend, and then it all went downhill from there LOL. Oh well, we'll get our storm. Just don't know when Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:42 PM I’m such a psycho NAM has me curious, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted Tuesday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:49 PM Classic 18z/0z Euro head fake last night..had like 2-5" here then backed off a bit a 6z, and more at 12z. Maybe an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted Tuesday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:10 PM 27 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: I’m such a psycho NAM has me curious, lol I'm curious too. Unfortunately the NAM is currently Tom Hanks alone on a deserted island talking to a volleyball 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:11 PM 28 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: I’m such a psycho NAM has me curious, lol A wise man once said don't do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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