MJO812 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Seeing the Nam struggle like this is weird since it's a close range model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 3:15 PM, MJO812 said: Seeing the Nam struggle like this is weird since it's a close range model. Expand It has had at least 3 complete failures at hour 6 and initialization this year.. December 20th had 3-6"+ for SNE for that morning while no other model bit and there was a dusting in some towns.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Ain't falling for the ole Nammy. thinking some light snow here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 3:15 PM, MJO812 said: Seeing the Nam struggle like this is weird since it's a close range model. Expand I don't think it is weird to see the NAM struggle. Especially since the big error with the UL-surface interaction begins at about 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Reggie seems to be feeling it a bit but not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Yeah the fact that Reggie and Icon didn’t seem interested prettt much discredits the NAM solution. Even the 3k was kind of skeptical of the 12k solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 3:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the fact that Reggie and Icon didn’t seem interested prettt much discredits the NAM solution. Even the 3k was kind of skeptical of the 12k solution. Expand Ya she gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Maybe the cape can pull off advisory snow.. Reggie has snow showers around maybe a inch for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The Nam solution isn't happening, but could be a bunch of light snow, dustings to an inch variety...just enough to cover the sheet ice and make it even more dangerous to traverse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 3:15 PM, MJO812 said: Seeing the Nam struggle like this is weird since it's a close range model. Expand But its not close, You want the NAM at 24 hrs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 If I’m wrong please correct me but why does it seem the computer models are becoming less accurate every year? And what needs to happen to fix that? More funding? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 12z GFS says NO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Heh ... been awhile since we had a NAM coup. Maybe it's time for a wiener solution to work out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 3:39 PM, Cyclone-68 said: If I’m wrong please correct me but why does it seem the computer models are becoming less accurate every year? And what needs to happen to fix that? More funding? Expand They aren’t less accurate. We’ve just gotten spoiled at their accuracy increase in the last 15 years. We’ve tracked a lot of storms from over a week out that didn’t waiver too hard…that was almost unheard of in the 2005-2010 years. This particular storm never looked good for us once we got inside of 6 days…if it was 2008 instead of 2025, we would’ve never even really given it a second thought other than clown range fodder…but the increase in accuracy of the models in the last decade-plus has conditioned us to take a D6-7 threat somewhat seriously. So it actually produces some feeling of disappointment or being deceived by guidance when the rug is pulled at 132 hours instead of just laughing it off as clown range. 2 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 the funny thing is the change on the NAM happens near Iowa in about 24 hours.. the ull is stronger and further south compared to everything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 3:59 PM, ineedsnow said: the funny thing is the change on the NAM happens near Iowa in about 24 hours.. the ull is stronger and further south compared to everything else Expand Will it be right or will it be wrong? We just don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Wonder what the NAM EPS has to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 4:12 PM, H2Otown_WX said: Will it be right or will it be wrong? We just don't know Expand I fully expect the Nam to go back SE at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 4:24 PM, ineedsnow said: I fully expect the Nam to go back SE at 18z Expand And what if it doesn’t lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 5:06 PM, allgame830 said: And what if it doesn’t lol Expand I would be shocked.. nothing else Is even close to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 5:07 PM, ineedsnow said: I would be shocked.. nothing else Is even close to it Expand Agreed I was just making a point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 3:39 PM, Cyclone-68 said: If I’m wrong please correct me but why does it seem the computer models are becoming less accurate every year? And what needs to happen to fix that? More funding? Expand I think what's happening is that the atmosphere around the world has been so volatile lately. Lot of things going on, lot of fast flows. It throws everything off and it's very hard to figure out what pieces will come together. As far as the storm for Thursday and The NAM model bringing it further north... It probably isn't correct, but we have had some instances where a storm would start to trend back Northwest slowly. I remember a few times where our storm Even within 24 to 36 hours kept on trending further Northwest where it would bring snows back into Connecticut, even when it showed a few days earlier. Nothing. So there's always that possibility. But I'm not wearing rose colored glasses, and I do not expect this to happen. But if it does, it would be a nice surprise for everyone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Maybe the NAM is sniffing out some sort of IVT as the upper level low tries to pull some moisture back, or just cocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 5:24 PM, Kitz Craver said: Maybe the NAM is sniffing out some sort of IVT as the upper level low tries to pull some moisture back, or just cocked. Expand Didn't the Euro last night also show some kind of pullback of some of the snow. Almost like an inverted trough ish. That could be something, but again, it would probably only affect areas all the way out east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 5:36 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: Didn't the Euro last night also show some kind of pullback of some of the snow. Almost like an inverted trough ish. That could be something, but again, it would probably only affect areas all the way out east Expand 12z Euro has already backed off that solution unfortunately... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 5:37 PM, CCHurricane said: 12z Euro has already backed off that solution unfortunately... Expand Yeah, this is definitely Dead in the water. Still a hard one to swallow though. From what we saw 5 days ago. All the models last week were showing it and it was on the radar of all the forecasts for this Thursday until we hit Sunday of this weekend, and then it all went downhill from there LOL. Oh well, we'll get our storm. Just don't know when Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I’m such a psycho NAM has me curious, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Classic 18z/0z Euro head fake last night..had like 2-5" here then backed off a bit a 6z, and more at 12z. Maybe an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 5:42 PM, Kitz Craver said: I’m such a psycho NAM has me curious, lol Expand I'm curious too. Unfortunately the NAM is currently Tom Hanks alone on a deserted island talking to a volleyball 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/18/2025 at 5:42 PM, Kitz Craver said: I’m such a psycho NAM has me curious, lol Expand A wise man once said don't do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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