Snowcrazed71 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 19 minutes ago, CT Rain said: It's pretty terrible. We've had a few instances where something did come back within 2 or 3 days. But That's probably a 20% chance if that of the storm coming back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It's definitely coming back 3 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's definitely coming back I sure hope so. Even if it comes back 100 mi, that would make a world of a difference.. The next 24 hours is crucial. If we see no budge in it moving back at all, then it is what it is and it's not coming back. But if we see at least 20/30 mile shifts to the Northwest, that's a good sign and gives us a chance of it. Giving us something more than nothing for the region, at least. The tri-state region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Time to call it boys…. Just ain’t your day Welcome to hell like the rest of us weenies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 26 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's definitely coming back I don’t think those 2 foot runs are coming back, but a significant storm is still on the table. If we zoom out and look at where we are right now, most guidance is about 100 miles SE of where we want it at 4 days out. That’s….. not that bad. The issue is those earlier runs got everyone’s hopes up, and it can be tough to let that go. If the models were 200 miles offshore and bumped north over the past 24 hours, despite being in the same spot the mood would be a lot different. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Mean is getting some realistic QPF into SE zones despite good agreement on the southeast position of the lows…prob some decent upper air support like a pseudo-IVT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Well... Bernie Rayno says he thinks this is a done deal for the Northeast. He thinks New York City and Philadelphia are on the edge but doesn't think it's coming north anymore. He said he was pretty surprised himself. It's just the way everything's been going this year. It's amazing how things are falling in the wrong direction for most storms when it comes to a pure snowstorm. And I'm talking for the tri-state area. I'm glad that Northern New England's getting slammed, and even the Mid-Atlantic has had some good storms. But, time is running out for us this year. It's on to next year soon. And it'll be here sooner than we know it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, SJonesWX said: Canada. HA! 100 percent correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z NAM still trying to look threatening in clown range. Don’t think the 20-burger runs are returning but a decent hit for SE zones is well within play imho. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18z NAM teases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z NAM teases. Or does it have a clue ? I mean we are still days away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The 18z NAM still leaves a little hope. Much deeper system and much further nw than 12z GFS. Also, not chasing convection like GFS since it shows a consolidated system. Even if it heads eastward at some point, it should come further north before that happens. Hope is still alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Sunday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:36 PM 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It's definitely coming back Just blast this from your squad car as the rain pours down on nyc: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted Sunday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:39 PM 54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM still trying to look threatening in clown range. Don’t think the 20-burger runs are returning but a decent hit for SE zones is well within play imho. If this was 4 or 5 years ago, it would be interesting....but the way things have gone, you can bet the house it won't happen. Doesn't matter the model, if it shows the least snowy outcome, it will be right. Ensembles haven't been really helpful either...this is the 3rd year that just doesn't want to snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted Sunday at 10:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:04 PM Goodbye and goodluck on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Sunday at 10:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:14 PM 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Goodbye and goodluck on the gfs Hey at least the bleeding stopped haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 10:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:16 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: Hey at least the bleeding stopped haha +Nobody wants to hear this but ... this could be circa 1987, and we'd be served a contiguous diet of armeggedon solutions until 9 hours before when the AVN pukes out a rat turd solution and everyone ignores it because ... there's all that momentum of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Sunday at 10:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:16 PM 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Hey at least the bleeding stopped haha That’s because there’s no blood left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 10:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:17 PM 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hey at least the bleeding stopped haha +Nobody wants to hear this but ... this could be circa 1987, and we'd be served a contiguous diet of armeggedon solutions until 9 hours before when the AVN pukes out a rat turd solution and everyone ignores it because ... there's all that momentum of course. This is actually showing how far modeling has come in situations like these... 4.5 days in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 10:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:17 PM 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hey at least the bleeding stopped haha Midlevels and aloft look kind of interesting for SE areas anyway. If we can tighten up the low level baroclinic zone a little, might have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Sunday at 10:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:19 PM 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Midlevels and aloft look kind of interesting for SE areas anyway. If we can tighten up the low level baroclinic zone a little, might have something. It probably will in the night's runs coming up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Sunday at 10:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:28 PM This has to be the first time we had KUs dangled in front of us in the medium range only to have the rug pulled twice in the span of a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM 3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: This has to be the first time we had KUs dangled in front of us in the medium range only to have the rug pulled twice in the span of a month. I think it happens 3 times every winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Sunday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:34 PM 4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: This has to be the first time we had KUs dangled in front of us in the medium range only to have the rug pulled twice in the span of a month. 2010 was pretty bad for that. We had two busts in Mar 2018 as well but that pattern was so good we scored 2 monsters anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Sunday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:35 PM Just now, ORH_wxman said: 2010 was pretty bad for that. We had two busts in Mar 2018 as well but that pattern was so good we scored 2 monsters anyway. Oh right. 2010...how could I forget? I feel like the bust with those was more at go time though. At least 2/10/10 comes to mind in that regard. I can't remember much about March 2018 though I do remember it was unusually snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted Sunday at 11:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:07 PM 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 2010 was pretty bad for that. We had two busts in Mar 2018 as well but that pattern was so good we scored 2 monsters anyway. what were the two busts in 2018? I know one was Mar 21st. The other two monsters were Mar 8th, Mar 13th (though the 13th was locally a bust here in CTRV). Mar 2nd the airmass was just extremely marginal and i dont remember that being a "bust"...more of just a NY/VT elevation event. Also another one that comes to mind is Mar 2014, the rug got pulled on a major nor'easter that slipped east a few days out. Which ended a very good season on pretty bad note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted Sunday at 11:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:18 PM 9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: what were the two busts in 2018? I know one was Mar 21st. The other two monsters were Mar 8th, Mar 13th (though the 13th was locally a bust here in CTRV). Mar 2nd the airmass was just extremely marginal and i dont remember that being a "bust"...more of just a NY/VT elevation event. Also another one that comes to mind is Mar 2014, the rug got pulled on a major nor'easter that slipped east a few days out. Which ended a very good season on pretty bad note. Which storm was it that was expected to nail SCT and wound up dumping 2 feet on Islip while we got an inch of baking powder? That stung. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:27 PM Euro says see ya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 11:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:28 PM Just now, Allsnow said: Euro says see ya Low is actually further west but precip field sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted Sunday at 11:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:31 PM 13 minutes ago, Hoth said: Which storm was it that was expected to nail SCT and wound up dumping 2 feet on Islip while we got an inch of baking powder? That stung. Mar 21-22nd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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