UnitedWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: some are selling, some are buying. smart play is neither until at least tomorrow At least. These setups can change drastically within 24 hours for good or bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Makes no sense giving up on this event other than "told ya so" OR "pat-self-on-the-back" Psychologically if it makes you feel better. Go for it. Sometimes stating nothing is better than resigning and then never acknowledging- yup wrong again. IT GONNA SNOW! Stick to that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Curious how the 12z Euro AI looked, is it out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Curious how the 12z Euro AI looked, is it out yet? It was east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 20 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: some are selling, some are buying. smart play is neither until at least tomorrow Yep. Barely even looking at this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
203whiteout Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 That is a really awesome link with major CT storm history going back 25 years. This firehose storm had to be one of the craziest gradients I’ve seen going from a couple inches to a couple feet in such a short distance. 2013 was amazing. Wasn’t this the storm where every town in Fairfield county got 10” and the Bridgeport spotter was smoking crack and stopped measuring after 6”? Lollll . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 here in my area of Enfield. Definitely a disappointment when one town east gets 16" and two towns 23" but such is valley living. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 33 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: some are selling, some are buying. smart play is neither until at least tomorrow Sell. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The inherent uncertainty of lead time is another common defense mechanism when a threat is slipping...."oh, I don't know how anyone can feel anyway until (insert abitrary day of the week)". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The inherent uncertainty of lead time is another common defense mechanism when a threat is slipping...."oh, I don't know how anyone can feel anyway until (insert abitrary day of the week)". The flip side of it is I don’t feel sorry for anyone who got emotionally invested in a 156 hour model output. No matter how “good” it looked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The inherent uncertainty of lead time is another common defense mechanism when a threat is slipping...."oh, I don't know how anyone can feel anyway until (insert abitrary day of the week)". “This season is a ratter. Nothing can go right! This will miss too” I’ve heard this one too. I call this one the negative Nancy defense mechanism 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The flip side of it is I don’t feel sorry for anyone who got emotionally invested in a 156 hour model output. No matter how “good” it looked. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Diggiebot said: “This season is a ratter. Nothing can go right! This will miss too” I’ve heard this one too. I call this one the negative Nancy defense mechanism If there is no rationale attached, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Diggiebot said: “This season is a ratter. Nothing can go right! This will miss too” I’ve heard this one too. I call this one the negative Nancy defense mechanism Yes there are definitely defense mechanisms in both directions. Very well known for anyone who has been on these forums for years. This threat is still definitely there but it’s got work to do. Silly to declare it dead or locked at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 All defense mechanisms aside, it has to phase. That’s gonna waffle all around. ENS making a 100 mile skip south east is a bit concerning however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes there are definitely defense mechanisms in both directions. Very well known for anyone who has been on these forums for years. This threat is still definitely there but it’s got work to do. Silly to declare it dead or locked at this range. There is also a distinct difference between infantile, reverse psych type of defensive posturing, and simply making note of a similarity in the pattern that has been tied to failed phases earlier in the season. Frankly, I'd be shocked if this phased very well at all given that the ridge out west has an uncanny resemblance to the one leading up the Jan 11 fiasco. And I get that that is only one example, but I'd love if anyone could find me an example of a SW-NE oriented ridge OFF of the west coast leading into any KU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: What are you looking at? Same thing you are? See Allsnow's image for the zoomed in version. I'm assuming the BM is still 40N and 70W, and "inside" of that means NW of that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, apm said: Same thing you are? See Allsnow's image for the zoomed in version. I'm assuming the BM is still 40N and 70W, and "inside" of that means NW of that point. There are def. some inside, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are def. some inside, dude. About a half dozen Id say.. maybe more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said: About a half dozen Id say.. maybe more My guess if this somehow fins a way to success, its going to need help from the 50/50 and the NAO block to kind of force the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 18 minutes ago, apm said: Same thing you are? See Allsnow's image for the zoomed in version. I'm assuming the BM is still 40N and 70W, and "inside" of that means NW of that point. You are a pretty stubborn person. I gave up after 6/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 17 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: About a half dozen Id say.. maybe more I must be missing something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Not a forecast but I wouldn't be shocked if we did see another ho-hum light/mod type deal The last one I recall many wrote off as all or nothing, came back to a somewhat lighter event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, apm said: I must be missing something? Yea, the next frame. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Not a forecast but I wouldn't be shocked if we did see another ho-hum light/mod type deal The last one I recall many wrote off as all or nothing, came back to a somewhat lighter event. Yes, I could see that. I don't see this as all or nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6-7 inches on the ground here grand total from everything that's fallen this month. Better to the north, worse to the south. No surprises there. By the end of this weekend's storm maybe up to 10 inches after packing down. If the Thursday storm pans out even as a moderate event I'll have more than a foot on the ground for a few days. Good news, the ground has been white for weeks now. It should stay that way til the end of the month. Not a losing situation considering the past few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: 6-7 inches on the ground here grand total from everything that's fallen this month. Better to the north, worse to the south. No surprises there. By the end of this weekend's storm maybe up to 10 inches after packing down. If the Thursday storm pans out even as a moderate event I'll have more than a foot on the ground for a few days. Good news, the ground has been white for weeks now. It should stay that way til the end of the month. Not a losing situation considering the past few years. I should be well over a foot depth after this one...funny, over 1/3 of my seasonal snowfall is on the ground right now...odd season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the next frame. Lmao exactly , it’s not rocket science Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Lmao exactly , it’s not rocket science Oh yeah my bad, the next frame has two. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, I could see that. I don't see this as all or nothing. I'll take a moderate event this year. We'll get a KU eventually but maybe not for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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