CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I mentioned it earlier. That s/w is oblong and not going to allow a big North turn. So basically you want it captured not much further south than the Delmarva. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 5:55 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Need to seemoreruns to be confident now. Told ya. Expand I think my over under was 12z tomorrow… I forgot though.. still have a MECS to track and it’s day 5. Just have to reel it in… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 5:56 PM, CoastalWx said: I mentioned it earlier. That s/w is oblong and not going to allow a big North turn. So basically you want it captured not much further south than the Delmarva. Expand Ya it was obvious that run, captured too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 5:10 PM, Spanks45 said: Hope I'm wrong, but this might be the time when the GFS makes a move towards the Euro suite, but then within the hour, the Euro makes a bigger leap towards the GFS. In the end we will be arguing which model was better despite their stark differences at day 6.... Expand just going to mention again...almost guaranteed this was going to happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 5:57 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: I think my over under was 12z tomorrow… I forgot though.. still have a MECS to track and it’s day 5. Just have to reel it in… Expand I’m just messing. You know my stance on this. It’s fun to try to decipher all the noise though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:27 PM, CoastalWx said: Honest to God, what is up with these double barrel dogshit lows. Expand Models accidentally fed Only Fans data? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Like I said to Tip yesterday…Ensembles until 12z tomorrow. Otherwise you just end up flip flopping with each OP run that comes out. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Typical model range when the models lose it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 5:56 PM, CoastalWx said: I mentioned it earlier. That s/w is oblong and not going to allow a big North turn. So basically you want it captured not much further south than the Delmarva. Expand oblong dong shortwave. add it to the list of ways to get cosmically dildo'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:05 PM, MJO812 said: Typical model range when the models lose it Expand Or we could look at like half a dozen other KU storms in the past decade that did not lose it at all…and then count a bunch of storms that were lost at day 5 and never came back. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: Like I said to Tip yesterday…Ensembles until 12z tomorrow. Otherwise you just end up flip flopping with each OP run that comes out. EPS def trended towards the OP there. Ugh . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:05 PM, MJO812 said: Typical model range when the models lose it Expand I would think it's more common to lose it and not have it come back, but yes it could happen being 5 days out. Not a lock or typical though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:08 PM, Heisy said: EPS def trended towards the OP there. Ugh . Expand that isn't all that surprising at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Precarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:08 PM, ORH_wxman said: Or we could look at like half a dozen other KU storms in the past decade that did not lose it at all…and then count a bunch of storms that were lost at day 5 and never came back. Expand His Snow goggles are on and strapped very tightly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:08 PM, Heisy said: EPS def trended towards the OP there. Ugh . Expand Yes they did. Still some decent westward spread though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Very precarious, but we already knew that. We hope but we don’t fully invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:12 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yes they did. Still some decent westward spread though. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 There is no definitive resolve at this range. Nothing is off the table. Ensemble trends are key. Something (at least tracking, watching) is going to occur. I'm not convinced to a prediction based on the OP. Stay vague and hope eternal. Something tis better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:22 PM, Allsnow said: Expand Damn. That doesn't look good. I changed my mind I'm ready to throw in the towel pending 00z. I may even smash my phone. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:23 PM, H2Otown_WX said: Damn. That doesn't look good. I changed my mind I'm ready to throw in the towel pending 00z. I may even smash my phone. Expand Lots of spread in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Everyone take a deep breath, and just wait for the JMA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:24 PM, Allsnow said: Lots of spread in general Expand Yeah I guess there are fair amount of members inside the BM but it seems to imply an ENE slide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:23 PM, H2Otown_WX said: Damn. That doesn't look good. I changed my mind I'm ready to throw in the towel pending 00z. I may even smash my phone. Expand Man that mean is so freaking far away, bleh. On to the next run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:27 PM, H2Otown_WX said: Yeah I guess there are fair amount of members inside the BM but it seems to imply an ENE slide Expand got a love the redevelopers in the long range, but wait the pattern flips to spring and they end up elevation dependent..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:05 PM, MJO812 said: Typical model range when the models lose it Expand This is just a coping mechanism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 She probably gone. Fast flow(blocking) not allowing to turn the corner. Can’t gain latitude and just glides east to ene. Seen this movie before. Struggle for the big ones this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:22 PM, Allsnow said: Expand Woof. Not many impactful lows there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Miller As = Ass 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:26 PM, JC-CT said: Everyone take a deep breath, and just wait for the JMA Expand JMA sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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