Hoth Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 3:53 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro also had us with 24+ inside 24hrs for jan15. No model is immune to choking. Expand Undoubtedly, but there's a difference between showing a massive storm but being slightly off on the timing/location of the phase, and completely whiffing the biggest snowstorm of the century. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 3:54 PM, Spanks45 said: So as of now the GFS is on its own? Man what a victory lap it could take if it somehow comes out on top.... Expand 12z looks better though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 3:57 PM, Hoth said: Undoubtedly, but there's a difference between showing a massive storm but being slightly off on the timing/location of the phase, and completely whiffing the biggest snowstorm of the century. Expand Fair point. Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 3:57 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 12z looks better though. Expand Yeah if you loop the last 4 runs, you can see the subtle shifts taking place.....might not be this run, but by 0z tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 3:54 PM, Spanks45 said: So as of now the GFS is on its own? Man what a victory lap it could take if it somehow comes out on top.... Expand It won't be "right" it's more a matter of what the compromise ends up being, if any 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Gfs folding 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 3:59 PM, JC-CT said: It won't be "right" it's more a matter of what the compromise ends up being, if any Expand Looks like better interaction around hr 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 3:59 PM, MJO812 said: Gfs folding Expand I might be wrong, it may completely fold at 12z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Gfs with boobie lows. It loves those. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Definitely consolidating the energy earlier and more efficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS almost there...you can almost argue the low chased convection off the OBX and should have a low where the Euro has it..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 A scraper but definitely a move NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Definitely still not as clean a phase as some other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The vort on this is sort of oblong and flying along. That’s going to limit big dog potential, but a 12-18 thing certainly possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 3:57 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 12z looks better though. Expand it also shows you the concern us in Southbury specifically fear...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 You can argue that the surface low should be at the DelMarVa here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:09 PM, Spanks45 said: it also shows you the concern us in Southbury specifically fear...... Expand Welcome to the league! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:09 PM, Spanks45 said: it also shows you the concern us in Southbury specifically fear...... Expand It looked better at h5 and at d5 that’s key. We’re still pessimistic of a big hit but open to the possibility. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Welcome to the league! Expand Thanks! Spring training time in my books, especially if Thursday fails... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ggem should definitely be further east than 0z, but 0z was extreme 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:12 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It looked better at h5 and at d5 that’s key. We’re still pessimistic of a big hit but open the possibility. Expand I'm sure it will destroy us at H5....we'll be watching Brooklyn movies all week 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:06 PM, CoastalWx said: Gfs with boobie lows. It loves those. Expand Don’t love seeing those, we’ve seen it happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:14 PM, JC-CT said: Ggem should definitely be further east than 0z, but 0z was extreme Expand Not as exciting as 0z, but still has a storm....good enough for now, I think everyone is beginning to hang their hats on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:22 PM, Spanks45 said: Not as exciting as 0z, but still has a storm....good enough for now, I think everyone is beginning to hang their hats on the Euro. Expand I will take my 15 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Get on the horse. It's the mares time to shine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 1:43 PM, apm said: There are a bunch of phasers here, no? Expand Yeah there is definitely a cluster of later phasers. It could go either way…we’re still 5 days out. This isn’t like it’s 2-3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Honest to God, what is up with these double barrel dogshit lows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:25 PM, Ginx snewx said: I will take my 15 or so Expand Definitely more EOR on that run...but we will definitely get the 'fluff' factor out this way there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:27 PM, CoastalWx said: Honest to God, what is up with these double barrel dogshit lows. Expand resolution too high for 4-5 days out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS in step 3 of recovery. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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