Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

up to 3/8" with a nice little band over me...

Yeah flake size increased a bit under that band

[winterwx21]

Still just light snow with that better band, but it should be enough to get us to a half inch. Only 22 degrees and the wind is blowing the powdery snow around. A beautiful hardcore winter night.

I'm going outside quite a bit to enjoy it in case it's our last snowfall of the season. Hopefully it isn't, but it's getting late and you never know. 

[jm1220]

About 0.7-0.8”. Still light snow but should be about over. So that gets me a little over 19” for the season. 

[Allsnow]

28 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

up to 3/8" with a nice little band over me...

Beautiful winter night in Metuchen 

[Allsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

About 0.7-0.8”. Still light snow but should be about over. So that gets me a little over 19” for the season. 

What a month for you 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Roughly 1/4”-1/2” street covered with these cold temps. 

[Krs4Lfe]

Around 0.5” here in Bayside, maybe a bit more. Cold, breezy, and light snow. Cant get better than this. 

[tdp146]

This just has the feel of what could have been. 

[MJO812]

Still snowing 

Dusting on everything

[donsutherland1]

Two photos from Mamaroneck. Light snow continues to fall, but there's not much fluff to the snow and it is barely accumulating.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Plowing what? 

They're currently salting out by me as it continues to flurry 

[ag3]

Looks like close to an inch here with band still over me.

Nice little event.

[RU848789]

0.5" as of 9:10 pm - love that last band - gorgeous out there...hope to make 0.6-0.7"

[psv88]

Yup plow just went by. I guess they want my street to be a gravel road. Light snow and 22,

 

[uofmiami]

.4” on my snowboard. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Got a nice .25+ so far, had to drive up to EWR to pick my parents up for the airport. Cold, wintry drive! 

I’m at, let’s call it 10 inches on the season with today / tonight. 

[STORMANLI]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Yup plow just went by. I guess they want my street to be a gravel road. Light snow and 22,

 

Haven't plowed here yet, but there are chunks of asphalt along the curbs.

[lee59]

Still flurries here.  Maybe 1/2 inch, hard to tell it so light and blowing around.

[RU848789]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

0.5" as of 9:10 pm - love that last band - gorgeous out there...hope to make 0.6-0.7"

Final measurement around 10:45 pm was 0.6" (was poker night and we just finished, so I wasn't getting out to measure that often, lol).  Brings us to 16.5" this season.  Beautiful light fluffy snow - must be 14-15:1 ratios. About to go broom this one away.  

[donsutherland1]

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Don - I'm guessing you'd be able to find the answer to this question: how many times has NYC had below average D/J/F, but still been below normal in snowfall for that 3-month period?  I would imagine that's unusual.  TIA.  

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, jm1220 said:

About 0.7-0.8”. Still light snow but should be about over. So that gets me a little over 19” for the season. 

weird, it stopped snowing here around 11 pm even though radar returns still showed snow over this area until midnight.

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks for this post Don.

 

I want to add...  The LGA snowfall was on an ASOS T... doesn't work that way in temps 20s. That needs NWS fixing as does NYC and EWR meager or nonexistent w.e.  Common sense tells you from the web cams that this is too low for W.E... I'd use 13  to 1 NYC metro,  as per modeled snowratios prior to the event.   Guess that doesn't mean much in the big scheme of things except when someone goes back to verify model qpf, or check on days with measurable w.e.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Don, that 0.1 brought JFK to 12.0 on the season and Central Park is up to 12.5 now? What is LGA at? Thanks.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, lee59 said:

Still flurries here.  Maybe 1/2 inch, hard to tell it so light and blowing around.

did it snow there until midnight?

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thanks for this post Don.

 

I want to add...  The LGA snowfall was on an ASOS T... doesn't work that way in temps 20s. That needs NWS fixing as does NYC and EWR meager or nonexistent w.e.  Common sense tells you from the web cams that this is too low for W.E... I'd use 13  to 1 NYC metro,  as per modeled snowratios prior to the event.   Guess that doesn't mean much in the big scheme of things except when someone goes back to verify model qpf, or check on days with measurable w.e.

 

Yes, I agree with you.

[donsutherland1]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, that 0.1 brought JFK to 12.0 on the season and Central Park is up to 12.5 now? What is LGA at? Thanks.

Seasonal snowfall through February 20th:

JFK: 12.0"
LGA: 15.4"
NYC: 12.9"

[wdrag]

Snowfall axis past 48 hours ending 12z/21. The main one was a 250-300 mi miss to the south on the D6.5 ensemble outlook issued around 4A/14.   Our general snowfall in the area was roughly near 1/2", with the primary scooting out to sea well ahead of the ULL that crossed NJ-LI near 00z/21. 

These cool season max axis departures on D6 multiple model agreement ensembling is troubling-something that I think will be reduced considerably over the next 5-10 years, provided our science will be permitted the tools.

For now, my winter time threads based on cyclic ensembling agreement will be limited to at most D5.  Less lead time,  an attempt to detect the sudden departures from the glide slope of the D6-7 cyclic expectation.  This will reduce thread disappointment, but mean that American Weather comments cannot imply need for thread till we are more assured of snowfall-those comments depositing in the monthly thread, if needed.

 

 

 

[wdrag]

CoCoRaHs data this morning had a bunch of T's snowfall southwest of NYC.  Sometimes I think observers got to it late, wind impacted measuring, or that less than 1/2" was commented as a T-the latter I hope I'm wrong.  Imperfect... but the main thing, many had a little snow to brighten spirits last evening.  

I see nothing confidently more than 0.1" CP snowfall for at least a week.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Snowfall axis past 48 hours ending 12z/21. The main one was a 250-300 mi miss to the south on the D6.5 ensemble outlook issued around 4A/14.   Our general snowfall in the area was roughly near 1/2", with the primary scooting out to sea well ahead of the ULL that crossed NJ-LI near 00z/21. 

These cool season max axis departures on D6 multiple model agreement ensembling is troubling-something that I think will be reduced considerably over the next 5-10 years, provided our science will be permitted the tools.

For now, my winter time threads based on cyclic ensembling agreement will be limited to at most D5.  Less lead time,  an attempt to detect the sudden departures from the glide slope of the D6-7 cyclic expectation.  This will reduce thread disappointment, but mean that American Weather comments cannot imply need for thread till we are more assured of snowfall-those comments depositing in the monthly thread, if needed.

 

 

 

I'd suggest within 100 hours (96 hours or 4 days), but starting it at 5 days might be good to get a head start.