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Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?


wdrag
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Thanks for all the reports, Wantage NJ a wind blown slippery 0.1" and 19F.  Thanks for all the road reports.  Our T/T spread is still 5F so we may get a little more dusting this evening.  

The road reports are important for me since I saw a met saying no big deal on travel this evening. Rush hour.. temps mid 20s NYC and colder NW subs.. 511 traffic report seems to have a lot of incidents and slower travel.  If I'm correct, we cant be dismissive about 1/4-1" of snow on mid 20s roads, in rush hour. 

Thanks for your reports.  Snowfall up this way in nw SC NJ less than expected the past two days. 

Enjoy whatever it is... better than a complete shuit out.

I'll post a summary sometime late tomorrow morning.Maybe we wont have to have any more threads for NYC this winter.   For now, the Max snow axis was a nearly 300 mile southward bust on a D6.5 issuance that held serve for only a day before going south.    I'll hold off on a good looking thread til D5 or 4.5 led time ---modeling picked out a good event but still has trouble D6.

Like it or not, the thread covered for an event but I'd never have issued a D6 thread for 1" or less... that was not my intent. 

Also... you will eventually see the day when a D6 thread and its ensemble support can nail an event axis within 100 miles, if we can keep our science going.   

 

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Also want to point out that measuring snow out this way is problematic with the wind blowing.

AND

I dont believe this ASOS Trace 6 hourlies... ASOS has trouble melting snow into a reasonable liquid equivalent when temps are below freezing, especially where we were today. The ASOS experts can add info, but my seeing those vsbys in the KNYC obs (occasionally below 2MI), a trace W.E doesn't reflect what is going on, ESPECIALLY with fairly well modeled measurable. 

One further comment: In winter... when T-TD spreads are 20F, its difficult to get snow to reach the ground.

In summer... a T/TD spread of 30F is sometimes possible 100/70 or 95/65 and severe's occur due to somewhat drier sub cloud layer and evaporational downdraft development due to the cooling in the rain column. So a rule of thumb in cool season doesn't not necessarily work in warm season. 

 

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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Also want to point out that measuring snow out this way is problematic with the wind blowing.

AND

I dont believe this ASOS Trace 6 hourlies... ASOS has trouble melting snow into a reasonable liquid equivalent when temps are below freezing, especially where we were today. The ASOS experts can add info, but my seeing those vsbys in the KNYC obs (occasionally below 2MI), a trace W.E doesn't reflect what is going on, ESPECIALLY with fairly well modeled measurable. 

One further comment: In winter... when T-TD spreads are 20F, its difficult to get snow to reach the ground.

In summer... a T/TD spread of 30F is sometimes possible 100/70 or 95/65 and severe's occur due to somewhat drier sub cloud layer and evaporational downdraft development due to the cooling in the rain column. So a rule of thumb in cool season doesn't not necessarily work in warm season. 

 

Agree. I like to give the most accurate, non inflated measurement as possible. Wind makes it very difficult. 

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15 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Also want to point out that measuring snow out this way is problematic with the wind blowing.

AND

I dont believe this ASOS Trace 6 hourlies... ASOS has trouble melting snow into a reasonable liquid equivalent when temps are below freezing, especially where we were today. The ASOS experts can add info, but my seeing those vsbys in the KNYC obs (occasionally below 2MI), a trace W.E doesn't reflect what is going on, ESPECIALLY with fairly well modeled measurable. 

One further comment: In winter... when T-TD spreads are 20F, its difficult to get snow to reach the ground.

In summer... a T/TD spread of 30F is sometimes possible 100/70 or 95/65 and severe's occur due to somewhat drier sub cloud layer and evaporational downdraft development due to the cooling in the rain column. So a rule of thumb in cool season doesn't not necessarily work in warm season. 

 

I fully expect that Central Park will record measurable snow when the final report is posted. In the Bronx, there was a solid coating of snow this evening. Earlier, there seemed to be a similar coating based on the Columbus Circle webcam.

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