Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 hours ago, Feen said:

HRRR has a nice swath of light snow here tomorrow 1 inch for everyone!

Not for Long Island and most of Queens.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

57 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Not for Long Island and most of Queens.

WX/PT

Though not shown on the HRRR I do believe there will be a general dusting to an inch across most of the NYC Metro Region tomorrow afternoon and evening.

WX/PT

[winterwx21]

Along with the HRRR, the Euro tonight looks decent with a half inch to an inch for much of the area. Could be just a dusting, but we also have a shot at getting an inch. I'll enjoy whatever snow we get. 

[RU848789]

And the Euro joins the party for our blizzard tomorrow, lol...

[wdrag]

Good mornin all:: OBS will probably start here sometime midday or early afternoon.  Should see a nice refreshing powder per the mapping added below. or as you see it differently but snow is coming and you'll see it rapidly expand on radar during midday as the short wave approaches through Philly northeastward.

Wont surprise me that there is a short period of 3/4S- near 6 or 7PM CP and a 1/2-1" snowfall there though uncertainty exists.

Let us know if sticks to the streets this evening... I kind of think in the area described below that will be slippery on untreated surfaces sometime during the evening rusk hour, especially after sunset. Winter driving habits advised, for sure side streets.

Dendrites might increase from the typically cold thickness small flakes, briefly to moderate sized flakes this evening per modeled lift in the deeply saturated dendrite growth zone aided by cirrus seeding. 

Graphics hopefully are self explanatory including the 09z/20 NWS ensemble chance of 1" (very low a you can see) the 00z/20 SPC HREF which is optimistic for near 1" in parts of our area, 00z/20 European ensemble snowfall output and the 4AM NWS snowfall forecast. 

[Snowguy66]

How did DT do with the storm? Wasn't he predicting high snow amounts for Richmond? Did he bust as usual?


.

[Northof78]

We got to close this thread...all this for nothing, flurries, or a dusting...

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

How did DT do with the storm? Wasn't he predicting high snow amounts for Richmond? Did he bust as usual?


.

.27 of precip for RIC so maybe 3 inches of snow?

[Snowguy66]

.27 of precip for RIC so maybe 3 inches of snow?

I wonder what his final car was for Richmond. He is a train wreck. I like to watch his forecast self-destruct, but unfortunately, I've been banned.


.

[EastonSN+]

12 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Got a feeling most people there would not think it is great.

My sister lives in Cary NC moved to get away from cold and snow like most people, however this is their 3rd event this season and they are enjoying as it's unique and not a typical year.

[WestBabylonWeather]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

My sister lives in Cary NC moved to get away from cold and snow like most people, however this is their 3rd event this season and they are enjoying as it's unique and not a typical year.

My cousin lives in Raleigh. Looks like they got like half an inch or so. Def a year for them. 

[jm1220]

Looks like 10-11” of snow in the Norfolk/VA Beach area. 

[wdrag]

I'll post a summary snowfall map tomorrow morning at 10AM...  to close this thread at that time. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like 10-11” of snow in the Norfolk/VA Beach area. 

 

[Allsnow]

I’m ready for another snow drought in the south now 

 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Cool, man 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m ready for another snow drought in the south now 

 

 

I read the tweet before I saw that name and I was going to say that person writes just like Don Sutherland!  And then I saw the name-- that IS him!

 

[EastonSN+]

29 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

My cousin lives in Raleigh. Looks like they got like half an inch or so. Def a year for them. 

I believe Raleigh's official measurement was 2 inches.

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

Should be a period of light snow this afternoon for the metro 

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, Snowguy66 said:

How did DT do with the storm? Wasn't he predicting high snow amounts for Richmond? Did he bust as usual?


.

Yep and he complained about how Norfolk got so much more than he did. He had Richmond around 8

[NJwx85]

20 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Agree. Once you get to 3/15 that’s pretty much all she wrote, even for southern New England, minus some freak, high anomalous event. At that point you have sun angle, climo and length of day all working very strongly against you 

We had a recent March, might have been 2017 or 2018 with 4 or 5 big storms in March. We got into a pattern where we got coastals every week, but that was definitely an anomaly. One of my all time favorite storms, March 2010 was a 5" rain maker, occurring a few weeks after the snowicane. 

[NJwx85]

Happy Everyone gets screwed day. 59 pages + for a dusting/flurries. 

[Snowguy66]

Yep and he complained about how Norfolk got so much more than he did. He had Richmond around 8

He sucks! What years ago when I first started following him, I thought the guy was really good but then I could see that he was wrong so many times. I mean, if you're a weather forecaster, you're gonna be wrong, but he went down in flames so many times it was comical.


.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Snowguy66 said:

He sucks! What years ago when I first started following him, I thought the guy was really good but then I could see that he was wrong so many times. I mean, if you're a weather forecaster, you're gonna be wrong, but he went down in flames so many times it was comical.


.

He was hugging the nam and ignoring the models showing much less. Anyone enough about him 

[gravitylover]

You can all whine about the waste of effort tracking this event and the futility of it all but I'll bet that the person who was involved in a car crash because someone else thought 'meh, it's barely a dusting' wishes that they'd paid attention better. 

[JetsPens87]

I have zero respect for DT

Not sorry

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

I have zero respect for DT

Not sorry

A strange man to say the least.   He couldn't hack the trolls here-his meltdowns were legendary...

[Dark Star]

Some scattered cirrus at 10:28 AM in beautiful Tremley Point of Linden, NJ...

[RU848789]

The NWS has come around to Walt's thinking (which Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 agrees with, too) as their interactive point/click map now shows 0.5-1.0" north of 276/195 in PA/NJ/NY (and 1-2" in the Poconos) vs. 1/4-1/2" south of that line, even though their official map only says <1". Still pretty minor, but as the NWS said, "with cold temps, roads could get slippery especially after sunset this evening." This would apply for areas that get more than 1/2", given temps in the upper 20s. Also, the most recent 12Z mesoscale/short-term models (NAM, HRRR, RAP, RGEM), which, in theory, should do better with a minor mesoscale event like this, are all showing 0.5-1"+ for areas N of 276/195. The NWS map shows 0.5" for my house, but I'll go with a hugely overperforming 0.7", lol.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=PHI

Also, for those curious, this was a big storm for NE NC and SE VA and extreme southern MD/DE, as per the map below. The VA Tidewater area got 8-12", the northern OBX got 3-5" as did the Research Triangle and Richmond areas, and extreme southern MD/DE got 4-6", while areas in western VA/NC got a fair amount less than forecast as did northern VA/MD, with DC actually shut out, as was all of NJ, except Cape May which got <1/2".  Was really fascinating to see the steep gradient across the southern half of Sussex Co, DE, going from 0 to 5" over a 20 mile stretch from NW to SE.