TriPol Posted Tuesday at 10:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:21 PM Looks like we’re gonna need a new pope. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Tuesday at 10:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:23 PM 2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Exactly. From that pic it looks to me like that thing is going to hit even further southeast of the benchmark than this Thursday's "storm." I think we'll be fine. Those things have caused megatsunamis in the past, read about how Chesapeake Bay was formed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted Tuesday at 10:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:23 PM 14 minutes ago, Dark Star said: So I should plan on 7.5 years of retirement, if I begin October 01, 2025? I guess that should be enough time... I plan on retiring November 2032, that gives me a month to plow through my retirement savings 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Tuesday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:27 PM 45 minutes ago, RU848789 said: That graphic makes it look like the asteroid is the size of Saudi Arabia, lol - it's actually 177 feet across. Not sure if Bruce Willis or Robert Duvall will still be around to save us... From the assessments this looks to be a Tunguska sized event, so not an ELE but it can be pretty dangerous if it hits a populated area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Tuesday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:35 PM Thought this was pretty good, I’m sure someone on here wrote this lolThis asteroid has been reading this thread and made up its mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 10:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:45 PM Ull is going to give us some snow 1 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Tuesday at 11:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:01 PM 45 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Willis is terminally ill, so it's unlikely. Duvall is older than God. But Ben Affleck is still around.... Plus the crazy Russian and Steve Buscemi, I like our chances 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Tuesday at 11:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:58 PM 55 minutes ago, RedSky said: Plus the crazy Russian and Steve Buscemi, I like our chances Peter Stormare, one of the great character actors of our time. Go check out Fargo if you don't believe me. And Buscemi too, who was a NY firefighter IIRC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted Wednesday at 12:44 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:44 AM 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Plus the crazy Russian and Steve Buscemi, I like our chances Add in Liam Neeson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Wednesday at 12:46 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 12:46 AM What I think of as a 2-6 hour snow event between 3PM and 11P in much of the NYCsubofrum, which is gradually becoming accepted in bits and pieces by Global ops (not specialized in smaller scale), but not yet accepted by the Ensembles; should be related to considerable 850 MB vorticity in the inverted trough back from the ocean low, pretty deep FGEN 850-700MB between I80 and I84 with the saturated layer interestingly enough south of the FGEN region. There will be seeding from cirrus aloft, and a deep layer of moisture with the DGZ almost down 875MB. I can even see minor ocean effect on northerly flow off LI sound on the east end. So if there is sunshine, it's only Thursday morning. This is a deepening 500MB low now starting in the northern Plains and modeled to have a nearly 200M 12 HR 5H HFC crossing the Delmarva Thu aft. Closed lows aloft spell trouble... its not yet connecting directly to the ocean, probably cant capture it because its too progressive but there is some westward room for development at 850MB. We'll see what happens, if anything. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted Wednesday at 12:54 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:54 AM 2 hours ago, JTA66 said: I plan on retiring November 2032, that gives me a month to plow through my retirement savings That could be a very fun month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Wednesday at 01:02 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:02 AM If you want to debate whether the Earth is round or not or how round it is in 2025 (OMFG) there are other threads to do it in. Wow… 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted Wednesday at 01:03 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:03 AM 2 hours ago, JTA66 said: I plan on retiring November 2032, that gives me a month to plow through my retirement savings The track for impact is well south of here dude, closest it gets is Brazil. Kinda like winter 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted Wednesday at 01:21 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:21 AM Can someone start a post about Sun angle? I want to take this downtime to read up on it so I'm prepared for it end of February and March.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Wednesday at 01:22 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:22 AM 34 minutes ago, wdrag said: What I think of as a 2-6 hour snow event between 3PM and 11P in much of the NYCsubofrum, which is gradually becoming accepted in bits and pieces by Global ops (not specialized in smaller scale), but not yet accepted by the Ensembles; should be related to considerable 850 MB vorticity in the inverted trough back from the ocean low, pretty deep FGEN 850-700MB between I80 and I84 with the saturated layer interestingly enough south of the FGEN region. There will be seeding from cirrus aloft, and a deep layer of moisture with the DGZ almost down 875MB. I can even see minor ocean effect on northerly flow off LI sound on the east end. So if there is sunshine, it's only Thursday morning. This is a deepening 500MB low now starting in the northern Plains and modeled to have a nearly 200M 12 HR 5H HFC crossing the Delmarva Thu aft. Closed lows aloft spell trouble... its not yet connecting directly to the ocean, probably cant capture it because its too progressive but there is some westward room for development at 850MB. We'll see what happens, if anything. If you end up being right about the ULL-IVT driven minor snowfall all along, we'll all owe you big hugs! Salvaging an inch of powder out of this debacle would still be very nice. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted Wednesday at 01:58 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:58 AM nam looking north so far 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 02:18 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:18 AM 20 minutes ago, Feen said: nam looking north so far Hits far eastern LI into Nantucket 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 02:22 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:22 AM 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 02:24 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:24 AM Coastal is so close on the Nam 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Wednesday at 02:25 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:25 AM Just now, MJO812 said: Coastal is so close on the Nam It's so dry. There's like no precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Wednesday at 02:33 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:33 AM Similar to 18Z for inland areas, but a lot more snow for SENJ and far ELI. Just need the ULL to connect more to the low via an IVT to get those 1-2" amounts in NEPA to make it through NJ/NYC. I would guess we'll see a lot of movement in those ULL blobs/bands of snow NW of the NJ coast and ELI. Congratulations Cape May and Montauk, lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Wednesday at 02:40 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:40 AM 6 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Similar to 18Z for inland areas, but a lot more snow for SENJ and far ELI. Just need the ULL to connect more to the low via an IVT to get those 1-2" amounts in NEPA to make it through NJ/NYC. I would guess we'll see a lot of movement in those ULL blobs/bands of snow NW of the NJ coast and ELI. Congratulations Cape May and Montauk, lol. Man if this verified that’s brutal. 100 miles more west for that grazer special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted Wednesday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:32 AM 51 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Man if this verified that’s brutal. 100 miles more west for that grazer special If that were to keep backing in like that we could end up with one of those surprise Montauk specials like in March 1998 (or was it 1999, I always forget), where they got 14", Riverhead maybe 6", flurries at the Nassau/Suffolk border, and Sam Champion showing mostly sunny skies from atop the Empire State Building. Not saying that's happening, but something like that did happen once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Wednesday at 03:39 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:39 AM 6 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: If that were to keep backing in like that we could end up with one of those surprise Montauk specials like in March 1998 (or was it 1999, I always forget), where they got 14", Riverhead maybe 6", flurries at the Nassau/Suffolk border, and Sam Champion showing mostly sunny skies from atop the Empire State Building. Not saying that's happening, but something like that did happen once. I remember that well, unfortunately. I got the flurries in western Suffolk while the east end got buried 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Wednesday at 05:09 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:09 AM We've come around to many of the models now showing light snow for at least a time with at least 36 more hours to go. Additional changes possible/likely. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted Wednesday at 05:16 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:16 AM 1 hour ago, psv88 said: I remember that well, unfortunately. I got the flurries in western Suffolk while the east end got buried Yes, I remember this quite well. I lived in Ridge at the time. 1999. We got nearly a foot and it was snowing really hard for a while there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted Wednesday at 05:20 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:20 AM Keep an eye on this. We are still 36 or so hours away and SR models want to back this coastal in. This is not a system to sleep on. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Wednesday at 11:06 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 11:06 AM My expectation for NYC-Long Island-northeast PA, northwest NJ and se NYS Thursday: A period or two of powdery light snow or flurries between Noon and midnight that may slow the Thursday evening commute. Amounts generally under 1 inch but isolated 2" amounts possible in the Poconos and also eastern Long Island. If it does snow steady for 2-6 hours, then road treatments will be necessary. Uncertainty on amounts as most modeling is a slight dusting but the unusual recent and unfolding winter situation may produce somewhat more than a dusting. I've provided my explanations yesterday. If the NAM and RGEM fade on the 500MB low, then I'm wrong on placing so much value on the developing closed low aloft and weak IVT. So while the big storm is far to the southeast....as others have noted, worth monitoring the mesoscale developments for tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Wednesday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:55 PM 7 hours ago, USCG RS said: Keep an eye on this. We are still 36 or so hours away and SR models want to back this coastal in. This is not a system to sleep on. The IVT feature is the only one I’m really concerned about, the coastal low snow is 100+ miles away. And it’s hard to pin down and even the NAM doesn’t show being particularly heavy. Maybe someone lucky ends up with 2”. Otherwise it’s coatings to an inch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Wednesday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:18 PM NAM 12Z ULL snows from about 4 pm to midnight put down 0.5-1.0" for most and even over 1.0" for some...it's at least something... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now