Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?

[jm1220]

Icon and RGEM look like the same suppressed garbage. We know where we can toss the NAM. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Icon and RGEM look like the same suppressed garbage. We know where we can toss the NAM. 

Yep its over

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Icon and RGEM look like the same suppressed garbage. We know where we can toss the NAM. 

Wow! The 12K NAM is too amped. Color me shocked! That model is as useful as tits on a bull

[MJO812]

Rgem brings us some snow from the ull

[eduggs]

The 12z RGEM actually made a similar shift to (/toward) the 12z NAM aloft in terms of adjusting the ULL position slightly west and raising heights out ahead. Unfortunately this only translates to a very slight northwestward shift in SLP and precipitation shield. But if you're tracking for the loooongshot chance of a big model bust, then you'd want to see a continued adjustment in this direction.

The RGEM also has some snow with a norlun type feature as the ULL passes.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem brings us some snow from the ull

Dusting to an inch

[forkyfork]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Where have you been.

disinterested 

[North and West]

The NAM is like that abusive ex that keeps  coming back. Once you think you finally got rid of her for good, she shows back up at your door. 

oh no I hope it’s not a goth girlfriend. Please share your source material and any possible website addresses that she resides on so that I can be sure to avoid it. Thank you in advance.


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[LVblizzard]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep its over

When even Anthony gives up you know it’s 100% over.

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

When even Anthony gives up you know it’s 100% over.

He’s been saying that for days now and then 30 minutes later he’s back lol

[dseagull]

1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

How's it do it?

 

The NAM gets the ULL further S and underneath the SFC LP latitude. That allows the ULL to drive up heights slightly and 'push' the SFC LP further N while tugging on it.

Oh, its doing LOTS OF TUGGING alright.  Lmao

[RU848789]

13 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 12z RGEM actually made a similar shift to (/toward) the 12z NAM aloft in terms of adjusting the ULL position slightly west and raising heights out ahead. Unfortunately this only translates to a very slight northwestward shift in SLP and precipitation shield. But if you're tracking for the loooongshot chance of a big model bust, then you'd want to see a continued adjustment in this direction.

The RGEM also has some snow with a norlun type feature as the ULL passes.

This is essentially what Walt has been talking about, i.e., 1" or so for most from the ULL...although the heavier coastal precip isn't that far away...

[winterwx21]

Too bad the NAM is a horrible model that we trust the least. I hate to completely discount a model since even the worst model is going to score a victory every once in awhile, but the chance of that happening seems extremely slim. 

However the RGEM shows why Walt never gave up on a light snowfall for our area. It's good to see that model giving us a little something Thursday afternoon. It's possible we can get a little bit with the upper level low or an inverted trough like feature. Getting close to an inch like the RGEM shows would be the story of our winter, but I would gladly take it. A nickel and dime winter is better than a blowtorch winter with no snow. 

[North and West]

Too bad the NAM is a horrible model that we trust the least. I hate to completely discount a model since even the worst model is going to score a victory every once in awhile, but the chance of that happening seems extremely slim. 
However the RGEM shows why Walt never gave up on a light snowfall for our area. It's good to see that model giving us a little something Thursday afternoon. It's possible we can get a little bit with the upper level low or an inverted trough like feature. Getting close to an inch like the RGEM shows would be the story of our winter, but I would gladly take it. A nickel and dime winter is better than a blowtorch winter with no snow. 

and it’s been a continuation of our six month drought, just cold now which normal people usually don’t associate with drought conditions.


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[USCG RS]

I could be-and have been before- wrong, but I've seen this song and dance before with the models in this set up. More often than not this area takes at least a significant hit.

I would most definitely keep an eye on this. There's a ton of energy around and we have a relatively good macro scale pattern. This is not over yet imo.

[Feen]

GFS no bueno. I give up

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Too bad the NAM is a horrible model that we trust the least. I hate to completely discount a model since even the worst model is going to score a victory every once in awhile, but the chance of that happening seems extremely slim. 

However the RGEM shows why Walt never gave up on a light snowfall for our area. It's good to see that model giving us a little something Thursday afternoon. It's possible we can get a little bit with the upper level low or an inverted trough like feature. Getting close to an inch like the RGEM shows would be the story of our winter, but I would gladly take it. A nickel and dime winter is better than a blowtorch winter with no snow. 

Gfs also has some light snows Thursday afternoon. I suppose some places could squeeze out an inch

[donsutherland1]

The 12z 12 km NAM is an outlier. The 3 km version, along with the RGEM and GFS remain in good agreement with the storm's focus. Flurries or a period of light snow remain possible in the New York City area and surrounding region (probably 0.5" or less in NYC). But the 3"+ amount shown on the 12km NAM is very unlikely given that the model is on its own with a track to the north and west of the other guidance.

[NEG NAO]

IMO anyone who thinks they have a handle on this situation right now  ___ _____ ______ ____ ___ ___fill in the blanks

[allgame830]

26 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

When even Anthony gives up you know it’s 100% over.

He’s been saying that for days now and then 30 minutes later he’s back lol

[allgame830]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO anyone who thinks they have a handle on this situation right now  ___ _____ ______ ____ ___ ___fill in the blanks

So wait since the southern stream is most likely gone this could take a completely different evolution and still give us some accumulations? 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 12z 12 km NAM is an outlier. The 3 km version, along with the RGEM and GFS remain in good agreement with the storm's focus. Flurries or a period of light snow remain possible in the New York City area and surrounding region (probably 0.5" or less in NYC). But the 3"+ amount shown on the 12km NAM is very unlikely given that the model is on its own with a track to the north and west of the other guidance.

its an outlier right now but what if other models start bringing the storm back west just a hundred miles ??? makes a big difference especially close to NYC - still plenty of time for adjustments and as I mentioned  last night the models have handled this storm poorly since last week also norlun trough and strong upper low has to be considered -- Norluns are difficult to predict in advance

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its an outlier right now but what if other models start bringing the storm back west just a hundred miles ??? makes a big difference especially close to NYC - still plenty of time for adjustments and as I mentioned  last night the models have handled this storm poorly since last week

When do you think we will know for sure if there’s going to be a snowstorm or not? Thursday at 6z or 12z?

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

When do you think we will know for sure if there’s going to be a snowstorm? Thursday at 6z or 12z?

i think around saturday at 18z we'll see where things stand. scared of suppression though

[RU848789]

37 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

This is essentially what Walt has been talking about, i.e., 1" or so for most from the ULL...although the heavier coastal precip isn't that far away...

Not surprisingly, the CMC looks a lot like the RGEM with the ULL blossoming and the coastal not that far offshore anymore...would at least be nice to get an inch or so of pure powder...

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its an outlier right now but what if other models start bringing the storm back west just a hundred miles ??? makes a big difference especially close to NYC - still plenty of time for adjustments and as I mentioned  last night the models have handled this storm poorly since last week also norlun trough and strong upper low has to be considered -- Norluns are difficult to predict in advance

If an IVT forms, it would provide a localized snow event. Most of the NYC area would not likely benefit. The GGEM has a more prominent IVT signal than the GFS, but we'll have to see whether later guidance shows it and, if so, where it forms. 

The NAM had far more than a Norlun trough. It tracked the storm north and west of the other guidance producing a larger snowfall across the region. Its current idea of the pattern is an outlier. The 12z GGEM has reaffirmed the other guidance. We'll see what the UKMET and ECMWF show a little later. But I think at this time, one can have good confidence that the NAM's scenario is a low probability one.

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

If an IVT forms, it would provide a localized snow event. Most of the NYC area would not likely benefit. The GGEM has a more prominent IVT signal than the GFS, but we'll have to see whether later guidance shows it and, if so, where it forms. 

The NAM had far more than a Norlun trough. It tracked the storm north and west of the other guidance producing a larger snowfall across the region. Its current idea of the pattern is an outlier. The 12z GGEM has reaffirmed the other guidance. We'll see what the UKMET and ECMWF show a little later. But I think at this time, one can have good confidence that the NAM's scenario is a low probability one.

Yes the NAM is based on the LP being dragged west by the upper low - but in this scenario even if that doesn't happen there is still more then 1 way such as the Norlun possibilities or just the strong dynamic upper low passing overhead of getting accumulating snow in NYC metro - I think Walts idea previously of 2 -6 inches powder is still on the table IMO.....

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Yes the NAM is based on the LP being dragged west by the upper low - but in this scenario even if that doesn't happen there is still more then 1 way such as the Norlun possibilities or just the strong dynamic upper low passing overhead of getting accumulating snow in NYC metro - I think Walts idea previously of 2 -6 inches powder is still on the table IMO.....

I believe Walt referenced 1"-2" of powder this morning. I'm not dismissing such a scenario. That's probably the top of what the NYC area might see absent an IVT. I'm thinking coating to a half-inch at Central Park, but we'll see. The general 3"+ snowfall on the NAM is what I don't think will verify.

[Dark Star]

59 minutes ago, North and West said:

and it’s been a continuation of our six month drought, just cold now which normal people usually don’t associate with drought conditions.


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The NYC watershed is in the Catskills?  And I think they have somewhere around 40" of snow?   I don't know if that is enough to help?

[North and West]

The NYC watershed is in the Catskills?  And I think they have somewhere around 40" of snow?   I don't know if that is enough to help?

That’s solid, right? Basic math brings that as 4” liquid, and should keep the ground from drying out as go into April, traditionally our highest wildfire risk of the year. Not sure about NJ and surrounding areas. Every little bit helps.


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