SnoSki14 Posted Tuesday at 03:26 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:26 AM Just now, MJO812 said: The pattern should get warmer after the 1st week of March. I do think we see a snowstorm before that when the AO skyrockets to positive . I think we're done outside of a nuisance event. The SE has a better chance of another snowstorm than we do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 03:55 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:55 AM Gfs looks much better at h5 but time is running out. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Tuesday at 03:57 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:57 AM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs looks much better at h5 but time is running out. Please tell me how. Looking at the snow maps it shows nothing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Tuesday at 04:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:09 AM 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: Walt has also commented on the potential of snow from the ULL. and the IVT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 05:04 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:04 AM 5 hours ago, wdrag said: 7PM 2/17/25: adjusted headline to narrow the timing goal post of what has become a much more uncertain event since initially proposed...even with the option of no snow. This despite a strong short wave passage Thursday evening. The GEFS still closes a low through PA while the EPS has weakened to an open - less ominous progressive short wave trough with no significant 850 MB onshore circulation. The 15z/17 SREF, 18z/17 NAM and 12z/17 JMA are the only models with any significant hope for snow as the globals have largely faded southeast since thread inception. The apparently lagged average BOM and 12z/17 WPC still maintain an opportunity for a period of light snow (1/2-4" nw to se on the BOM). Which locations are NW to SE since there are many differing opinions here regarding that ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Tuesday at 05:20 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:20 AM 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Which locations are NW to SE since there are many differing opinions here regarding that ? This is the 19Z BOM I'm sure he was referring to at 7 pm...I would kill for that, lol, but I'm sure it's heavily weighted towards the NAM and SREFs, which are also bullish. The NWS often follows the BOM at least early on, but clearly they are not right now, with less snow forecast, which is understandable with nada from the GFS, UK, CMC, etc (other than the 1/2" or so now showing up on some of the models for nearly everyone, presumably due to the upper level low). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 05:39 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:39 AM 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: This is the 19Z BOM I'm sure he was referring to at 7 pm...I would kill for that, lol, but I'm sure it's heavily weighted towards the NAM and SREFs, which are also bullish. The NWS often follows the BOM at least early on, but clearly they are not right now, with less snow forecast, which is understandable with nada from the GFS, UK, CMC, etc (other than the 1/2" or so now showing up on some of the models for nearly everyone, presumably due to the upper level low). there will be changes in that snowfall map one way or the other since this storm is so disorganized and questions about exactly where the energy will be transferred to along the east coast and many variables regarding intensity and track and the size of the precip field and the chance of a westward expansion of any norlun trough that develops which could expand the precip field further west then modeled considering the models since last week have had a weak handle on this whole situation and the storm is still a little more than 2 days from reaching here and is in the early development stages out west and will be transferring energy at different points as it moves into the Gulf region and off along the southeast coast - impossible for any guidance to be accurate at this point IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Tuesday at 10:34 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:34 AM The 6Z NAM and the 03Z SREFs are the only models showing any snow over 1" anywhere north of coastal DE, although several models have ~1/2" amounts throughout the inland regions north of there due to the ULL, while several others show nada. I can understand why the NWS cut snowfall back again. We're close to miracle territory for getting even minor snowfall north of DE, although their 1 in 10 chance high end map does show some surprisingly high snowfall amounts for the area, indicating that there's still some potential for more snow (and reflecting that we're still 42+ hours away from the "event" starting time)...and their 1 in 10 chance low end map shows 0.0" for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Tuesday at 11:02 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:02 AM 10 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Well, there are years like 2018. I had snow on the ground the entire month of March. Of course it took 40+ inches of snow that month to do that. I believe the city had 18 inches in total that month. Yes and even in April we had a significant snow event! March 2015 was even better! This decade has not been kind to March snows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Tuesday at 11:03 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:03 AM 9 hours ago, allgame830 said: Right and that happened last Spring. Well not huge but I believe a 4.8 That was the only exciting thing we tracked at all last year lol. We also had a pretty strong aftershock right after that on the same day (close to a 4.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Tuesday at 11:26 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:26 AM Waiting for Walt's daily morning post and hoping he still sees some way of getting >1" for NYC metro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted Tuesday at 11:32 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:32 AM Also notice the dews are once again 0 or even a little below in much of NJ this morning. The northern fringe of a disorganized system isn't saturating that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 11:51 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:51 AM I was looking back at the model runs last week and the gefs didn't really show a big storm. I will always be cautious moving forward if one model suite isn't showing anything . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 11:56 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:56 AM On 2/14/2025 at 7:10 PM, steve392 said: Taking 2 personal days to enjoy this either huge blizzard or small fizzle flurries. Hoping we can go out with a bang. I also took off Thursday for the snow. On 2/14/2025 at 7:28 PM, greenmtnwx said: Stop yourself buddy. You know probably 8 in 10 chance we get little to no snow. You were actually right. Wow. On 2/15/2025 at 2:00 AM, Roger Smith said: First call 1-30 region-wide. 0 On 2/15/2025 at 5:44 AM, Rjay said: All the ensembles took a step back last night. Let's see what today brings. Big sign everything was falling apart. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 11:58 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:58 AM I keep looking back at model runs from last week. What a shame . 0z Euro showed a blizzard here on the run early Saturday morning. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Tuesday at 12:01 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 12:01 PM 6 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Which locations are NW to SE since there are many differing opinions here regarding that ? 18 minutes ago, Picard said: Also notice the dews are once again 0 or even a little below in much of NJ this morning. The northern fringe of a disorganized system isn't saturating that. OK... Lets says ne PA/nwNJ/seNYS...how about about a 30 mi radius of High Point NJ on the nw point. Current modeling projects Trace-1/2" there, then out to the Montauk and whatever you would like in central NJ... can we use I195??? Your call, and that maybe where we may see 1-2" of powder. Added a few maps.. we know the big one is gone but the strength of the upper low should produce some high ratio powder snow showers or periods of snow in the 10A-10P time frame for portions of the NYC subforum... another minor or very minor event. This past weekends storm (some of the worst icing seen here in nw NJ in quite some time- I do recall a similar -worse icing event in the Poconos Feb 3 2022, and a bad one in the Philly area in prior decade) and the current bitter cold speak of a somewhat unusual pattern ion strength. Am not selling anything short in what I feel is a somewhat less than benign pattern. Don't want anyone wasting there time when taxes are soon due and work needs be done cleaning up debris. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYER72 Posted Tuesday at 12:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:13 PM please not a coating for the city. As soon as they get mention of a snowflake here they send the plows out to cover us in salt 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Tuesday at 12:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:33 PM There might be a way some of us across the area get our consolation coating from the upper low coming through. It’s a closed upper low and quite dynamic, although for me it’s just a reminder of what could have been had the overall pattern not kept it ripped apart. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Tuesday at 12:54 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 12:54 PM So the 09z SREF is less and close to the BOM. We are 48-60 hours out. Could be nada but I dont think so with the RGEM/NAM still on board and all ensembles have fragments. If we lose the NAM and RGEM then it's done for me in NYC. I saw the comment on dew points... true if its 20 or greater spread, then nothing. It may take a few hours to moisten and that could waste it... Right now I'm at a 13F spread. Modeling does not show a Sunny Thu. they tend to a 22z/20 snow opportunity with minor ...repeat very minor snow growth in DGZ. 12z HRRR may have an idea if DC-BWI gets some light snow by 12z Thu. (48 hr version). In any case, go do your life... check back tomorrow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Tuesday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:55 PM Is there any better summary of how this winter has gone for most of us in this forum than the GFS graphic of snowfall for the next 16 days? It's not that we've been shutout, but that everywhere else around us, even areas that usually get much less, has gotten more and is projected to get even more. Ouch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 01:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:02 PM 6 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Is there any better summary of how this winter has gone for most of us in this forum than the GFS graphic of snowfall for the next 16 days? It's not that we've been shutout, but that everywhere else around us, even areas that usually get much less, has gotten more and is projected to get even more. Ouch. We have to move to the lakes. They are getting destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Tuesday at 01:18 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 01:18 PM One thing that is somewhat evident to me in FEB... eastern LI has been doing RELATIVELY well. Seems like that may be the case again. Watching waffling minor changes in global ensemble qpf so noise for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Tuesday at 01:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:31 PM 13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: The 6z wishcast euro looks amazing From MA forum found hilarious for comic relief from this miss. Was a response to a 6z AI post for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Tuesday at 01:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:33 PM 36 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Is there any better summary of how this winter has gone for most of us in this forum than the GFS graphic of snowfall for the next 16 days? It's not that we've been shutout, but that everywhere else around us, even areas that usually get much less, has gotten more and is projected to get even more. Ouch. Despite the cold, which is nothing that remarkable but just stands out given the warming climate, I consider this one of our lousier winters for that reason. Just endlessly skipped over by everything of note except of course any rain events like 2 days ago or New Years Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 01:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:43 PM 21 minutes ago, wdrag said: One thing that is somewhat evident to me in FEB... eastern LI has been doing RELATIVELY well. Seems like that may be the case again. Watching waffling minor changes in global ensemble qpf so noise for now. This is the point at around 66 hours NYC metro has the opportunity of a period of steady snow as the northern stream feature passes overhead - unfortunately this northern upper level feature doesn't phase with the southern branch until too far offshore - all of the heavier snow down in the southern mid-atlantic is being caused by a strong southern upper level system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Tuesday at 01:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:48 PM So the 09z SREF is less and close to the BOM. We are 48-60 hours out. Could be nada but I dont think so with the RGEM/NAM still on board and all ensembles have fragments. If we lose the NAM and RGEM then it's done for me in NYC. I saw the comment on dew points... true if its 20 or greater spread, then nothing. It may take a few hours to moisten and that could waste it... Right now I'm at a 13F spread. Modeling does not show a Sunny Thu. they tend to a 22z/20 snow opportunity with minor ...repeat very minor snow growth in DGZ. 12z HRRR may have an idea if DC-BWI gets some light snow by 12z Thu. (48 hr version). In any case, go do your life... check back tomorrow. Thanks for the pretty logical and straightforward writeup! I understood most of it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Tuesday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:11 PM 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Is there any better summary of how this winter has gone for most of us in this forum than the GFS graphic of snowfall for the next 16 days? It's not that we've been shutout, but that everywhere else around us, even areas that usually get much less, has gotten more and is projected to get even more. Ouch. LOL showed this to a friend of mine and he was like, wow we are so lucky, look at all that miserable snow around us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Tuesday at 02:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:15 PM 3 hours ago, RU848789 said: The 6Z NAM and the 03Z SREFs are the only models showing any snow over 1" anywhere north of coastal DE, although several models have ~1/2" amounts throughout the inland regions north of there due to the ULL, while several others show nada. I can understand why the NWS cut snowfall back again. We're close to miracle territory for getting even minor snowfall north of DE, although their 1 in 10 chance high end map does show some surprisingly high snowfall amounts for the area, indicating that there's still some potential for more snow (and reflecting that we're still 42+ hours away from the "event" starting time)...and their 1 in 10 chance low end map shows 0.0" for everyone. The only models showing anything more than snow showers with the ULL passage is the 12K NAM and SREFS. The 3K high res NAM isn’t as aggressive as the 12K NAM and the SREFS. The newest SREFS run actually cut back from last night. Other than that, every other model (mesos and globals) is snow showers, well under an inch. To me this is nothing more than that, maybe the eastern end of Long Island (twin forks) sees an inch or two? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted Tuesday at 02:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:16 PM Nam 12z is definitely going to end up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 02:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:22 PM Nammy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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