weatherpruf Posted Monday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:45 PM 18 minutes ago, dseagull said: Im patient. What i would like to avoid is late winter/early spring coastals with rain. Good for nothing in my life. I'm a hige fan of drought conditions during my work season. I'm retired with no work season thank god, and I still hate that kinda weather. Messes up the fishing. Not that there's much to fish for anymore; really miss the old winter flounder runs, which used to be from Boston to Barnegat ( Barnegat Bay was their southern extent, many believe it was due to cedar but who knows ) I caught one in LI Sound last year porgy fishing; the kids on board had never seen one. Still see them offshore on wrecks, which is not my kinda fishing. I'm a bay rat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Monday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:50 PM Even worse it'll probably be 40 and rainy for the next 6 weeksDon’t forget foggy and dreary!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Monday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:52 PM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Monday at 06:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:54 PM 2 hours ago, RU848789 said: Here's the 2.5 day trend of the NBM since Saturday at 12Z (every 12 hours), showing how the NBM can be very misleading in trending situations, due to its time-lagged nature. I think everyone here knew this storm was mostly toast by yesterday at 12Z, but the NBM was still showing 6"+ for the 95 corridor with a bit less NW and up to 9" at the NJ coast. And it just showed <3" for the 95 corridor at 12z today. I think it's a useful tool when models aren't trending one way or another, significantly, but has been useless for this event. Great post about the NBM. NBM has a very bad lag and it’s not done adjusting to the new model consensus we just had, the next update will have even less snow. This one is over IMO. Today at 12z was my benchmark for declaring it dead after all the model runs completed. We are now inside of 3 days and have complete consensus on a total non event. NAM (12K, 3K), RGEM, GFS, ICON, UKMET, CMC, EURO, EURO-AIFS, GFS-GraphCast and the ensembles (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) are all in the same agreement 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Monday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:05 PM 22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I'm retired with no work season thank god, and I still hate that kinda weather. Messes up the fishing. Not that there's much to fish for anymore; really miss the old winter flounder runs, which used to be from Boston to Barnegat ( Barnegat Bay was their southern extent, many believe it was due to cedar but who knows ) I caught one in LI Sound last year porgy fishing; the kids on board had never seen one. Still see them offshore on wrecks, which is not my kinda fishing. I'm a bay rat. The last good year for winter flounder here was quite a fluke (no pun intended.) It was march of 2009. Very strange, as all fish were in their traditional spots, and they were all tanks 2lbs and over. Chumming while anchored wasn't even necessary, but i did it anyway with my corn and clam secret recipie. I even used my plunger attached to a long pole (flounder pounder) to stir up the bottom. When i tell you that we caught hundreds each day for two weeks, its not an exaggeration. Very weird, like they showed up just so I could show people what it used to be like. Didn't matter if you used mussel pieces or blood worms or sand worms. It was like going back to the 70s. Like you, I now encounter them on wrecks while targeting seabass in the spring and summer. They arent on our nearshore snags either. This is all 120-180' plus on the 20 and 30 line. Hundreds of theories on what changed their migration pattern, but we may never know. I grew up setting fyke nets. Overfishing doesn't seem to be the culprit responsible for their disappearance in the estuaries, though I'm sure it didnt help. My bride purchased a new trolling motor (spot lock) for my personal boat. As much as I dislike the fact that anyone can just go buy one and quickly target tog, seabass, etc... with very little skill.... I am getting too old to be double anchoring regularly. Took me many decades to master a skill that was essential, only to watch spot lock appear and give anyone an edge. Needless to say, ill be out catching blackfish this spring after I'm tired of playing with the early resident stripers beginning in two weeks. As soon as fluke begins, I'll be drifting the bay while on my work boat everyday. Bluefin tuna has been off the charts in close in recent years, so that will take the place of everything for awhile... then weakfish will come after that. Im blessed to have such a great backyard. Back to spending 12-16 hours a day outside. I'll never fully retire, as what I do now is not work to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:34 PM 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Even worse it'll probably be 40 and rainy for the next 6 weeks Probably not, we have been switching to drier springs the last few years, I envision sunny and 50s hopefully not too much wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 07:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:37 PM 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Even Norfolk gets fringed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 07:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:39 PM 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: weather models aren't wrong? LOL why all this senseless worship for an inanimate object that very obviously is wrong? it's people like Mike Masco with his head buried in the sand who say *models aren't wrong* who are the barrier to actual progress in making models better. Maybe admit they are wrong and find a way to fix them instead? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:41 PM 1 hour ago, Snowguy66 said: Mike Mascoe has jumped the gun many times in the past so the fact that he was reluctant to jump on this one just means he's learning to take a conservative approach, which is smart. Doesn't mean he won't post rumors of big storms to get clicks like everybody else, but those who take a conservative approach in this form look the best at the end. . He's a moron for saying computer models aren't wrong. I wish someone posted the actual tweet because I'd tell him so right on his page weather models aren't wrong? LOL why all this senseless worship for an inanimate object that very obviously is wrong? it's people like Mike Masco with his head buried in the sand who say *models aren't wrong* who are the barrier to actual progress in making models better. Maybe admit they are wrong and find a way to fix them instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:43 PM 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Mike Masco knew tho and yet models aren't wrong lol when in fact he actually said they are wrong in the body of his social media post did this guy flunk out of high school or did he ever even make it to high school before he flunked out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:53 PM Euro AI did well this non event. Never showed a hit inside 8 days 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:54 PM 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Euro AI did well this non event. Never showed a hit inside 8 days Something to consider going forward next winter and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted Monday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:55 PM 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: He's a moron for saying computer models aren't wrong. I wish someone posted the actual tweet because I'd tell him so right on his page weather models aren't wrong? LOL why all this senseless worship for an inanimate object that very obviously is wrong? it's people like Mike Masco with his head buried in the sand who say *models aren't wrong* who are the barrier to actual progress in making models better. Maybe admit they are wrong and find a way to fix them instead? He said it an a weird way so I get where you’re coming from but his point is valid. Models are tools, simple as that. They help meteorologists make forecasts. It is still incumbent on the forecasters to account for model biases, weigh the chances based on time from event, and decide the best way to alert the public. as other have stated, there was ONE suite where all models showed a storm at the same time. One. Sure each model showed the storm at one point, but they were clearly picking up on a wrong piece of energy or variable that impacted the output. For us to know since Saturday evening or Sunday morning that there wasn’t going to be a storm on Wednesday or Thursday for us, 4-5 days out, is pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted Monday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:57 PM 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro AI did well this non event. Never showed a hit inside 8 days TV mets replaced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 08:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:01 PM 3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: TV mets replaced? Who under age 60 watches TV newscasts anymore? A dying entity... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 08:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:05 PM 12 minutes ago, MorristownWx said: He said it an a weird way so I get where you’re coming from but his point is valid. Models are tools, simple as that. They help meteorologists make forecasts. It is still incumbent on the forecasters to account for model biases, weigh the chances based on time from event, and decide the best way to alert the public. as other have stated, there was ONE suite where all models showed a storm at the same time. One. Sure each model showed the storm at one point, but they were clearly picking up on a wrong piece of energy or variable that impacted the output. For us to know since Saturday evening or Sunday morning that there wasn’t going to be a storm on Wednesday or Thursday for us, 4-5 days out, is pretty solid. I just corresponded with him and when I mentioned marine heatwaves out in the West Pac east of Japan messing up the models he said he had no idea what I was talking about. He doesn't seem to know what a marine heatwave is and doesn't even seem to know that the northern stream has been unusually fast this year--and for a few years. He did mention AI and said AI models aren't good enough yet. Apparently he didn't know about the track record of the Euro AI this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 08:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:08 PM 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Who under age 60 watches TV newscasts anymore? A dying entity... by the same token, social media isn't the place to get good info either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:35 PM Nam coming north. Comeback of epic proportions coming. Get ready 3 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 08:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:37 PM Nam! Lolol Image 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 08:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:37 PM Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:39 PM Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted Monday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:39 PM 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Image I would phrase the NAM as 'snow showers likely' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:39 PM Still snowing Image 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 08:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:41 PM 2-4 with ratios Image 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted Monday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:42 PM hey you never know! maybe we get lucky with a trend reversal! lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:45 PM Aifs is a little n/w nothing crazy though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted Monday at 09:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:09 PM 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam coming north. Comeback of epic proportions coming. Get ready 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Monday at 09:09 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 09:09 PM Willl probably adjust the start time of the thread around 730PM...delay 6-12 hrs from s to n. I dont understand it either, but the BOM actually increased a bit at 19z. Not sure if its too reliant on the SREF (Nam based)?? So I've seen most of what you've seen from 12z and 18z. Japan model which I check everythday and sometimes its better than the UK... which probably imo doesn't say that much but we're obviously edgy at this 72 hour stage, so I'm not canning-Japan not full on but the potential upper low is intriguing. Yes I saw the 18z NAM and its 3K cousin. Nothing definitive in this run except its not fading like the globals. My point in the this run up to the ocean storm... the 850MB wind field is wide-open Wed night-Thu morning for offshoe location and being stronger then the general broad weak 15 kt split structure its showing. A little more time before you all are correct and I held on too long against the 30 hr cyclic trns. . No lessons learned since it was stated upfront on P1 but would disappointing if nothing happened here. My feeling is whatever happens Cape May, happens Montauk and we titrate down to northwest from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:13 PM Icon and rgem miss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 09:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:14 PM Just now, nycsnow said: Icon and rgem miss It's over man 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now