Wannabehippie Posted Monday at 02:49 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:49 AM What is the timing of this event? Overnight Wednesday into Thurs? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Monday at 02:51 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:51 AM 1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said: What is the timing of this event? Overnight Wednesday into Thurs? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 02:51 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:51 AM 1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said: What is the timing of this event? Overnight Wednesday into Thurs? The way it's going, it will be a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted Monday at 02:53 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:53 AM Looks pretty good to me even though it's at the end of its useful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 02:58 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:58 AM Nam would be a nice hit if it kept going esp for Long Island and cape cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 03:10 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:10 AM The icon is congrats NC. Thing might end up in Florida haha. What a shitty year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 03:13 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:13 AM My god brutal…. If this happens I hope it keeps going south Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Monday at 03:14 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:14 AM 23 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: What is the timing of this event? Overnight Wednesday into Thurs? Originally it was overnight Wednesday into Thursday with the bigger storm, now we are looking at a Thursday event. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 03:17 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:17 AM I want a trend back Tom or it to keep going south til no one gets snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 03:17 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:17 AM 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: My god brutal…. If this happens I hope it keeps going south Image A chunk of E NC and S VA/Delmarva might end with more snow than NYC this year and maybe a good amount more. When was the last time that happened, 1979-80 which was a Nino? I think 12z tomorrow is the final pull the plug, right now it’s on life support getting every AED given to it in the building. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 03:17 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:17 AM Icon big miss long range rgem Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted Monday at 03:18 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:18 AM I wonder if there might be a secondary surface reflection closer to coast once the upper level low swings through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Monday at 03:22 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:22 AM 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: I want a trend back Tom or it to keep going south til no one gets snow If you get a trend back from Icon it will probably be 6-12 hours prior to the onset of snow (if there is any). Icon is not one of the top tier models. ECMWF is still the best, GGEM very good, UKMET good. I'd look for changes in one of those three models to signal a reverse in trends if it is to be. Icon and GFS would not be first to the punch bowl. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 03:22 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:22 AM Quite a few leaners/tucked in members still on icon ensembles Image Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:24 AM Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted Monday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:24 AM 34 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: What is the timing of this event? Overnight Wednesday into Thurs? Maybe some increased clouds Wednesday night. Otherwise there’s no event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Monday at 03:26 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:26 AM Just now, Krs4Lfe said: Maybe some increased clouds Wednesday night. Otherwise there’s no event I wouldn't be sounding an "all clear" for this storm until tomorrow night the earliest, Tuesday night the latest. WX/PT 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Monday at 03:30 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:30 AM 2 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I wouldn't be sounding an "all clear" for this storm until tomorrow night the earliest, Tuesday night the latest. WX/PT Well what do you possibly see as a result for this to come back? You seem from the past to be conservative but you must see something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted Monday at 03:33 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:33 AM Storms will oftentimes “come back” on modeling when there’s an impetus to. Jan 2016 was one of the biggest examples of that. In that case, the confluence was just being depicted too strongly. But here, the ULL continues to be depicted too far east and running out ahead of the SW, kicking it off the shore without gaining latitude. Unless that ULL aligns with the SW, there will be minimal impacts for anyone in the Northeast, if any snow at all. Considering we are 3 days away from the “storm” we have sufficiently run out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Monday at 03:38 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:38 AM 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Well what do you possibly see as a result for this to come back? You seem from the past to be conservative but you must see something My gut feeling right now is that it probably won't come back but I cannot draw that conclusion absolutely for a few more run cycles, probably 12Z tomorrow and 00Z Tuesday. At the moment all we have for hope is the NAM (which is not much) and a few outlier ensemble members. Everything else is a "not happening" and in the last 8 hours has been getting worse, not better. But in the passed we have sometimes seen an unexpected reversal in trends within the last 72 hours. So I wait until tomorrow night or Tuesday 12Z to sound the "all clear". WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 03:40 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:40 AM Rgem is well south . This is becoming a piece of shit storm. Another storm where it deamplifies at the last minute. We can't get a phased storm this winter . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 03:43 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:43 AM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Rgem is well south . This is becoming a piece of shit storm. Another storm where it deamplifies at the last minute. We can't get a phased storm this winter . It’s being destructively interfered with by confluence to the north and a kicker to the west. So actually a double whammy against this one. Maybe these pieces can move around or weaken but time’s running short. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 03:46 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:46 AM GFS is South. It's over. Theme of the winter, suppression depression. Weak strung out piece of crap storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 03:47 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:47 AM I can finally get my sleep back until the next storm. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 03:48 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:48 AM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I can finally get my sleep back until the next storm. There are no other storms lol unless you mean the tropical storm next week on gfs. Bring on 60s this winter was a huge failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 03:50 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:50 AM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I can finally get my sleep back until the next storm. Winter is over dude 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted Monday at 03:50 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:50 AM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I can finally get my sleep back until the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted Monday at 03:52 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:52 AM 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: GFS is South. It's over. Theme of the winter, suppression depression. Weak strung out piece of crap storms That’s all the background state supported. Rule of thumb, if you don’t see a big storm by late January, you probably won’t see one all season. The two systems in early Jan that hit mid Atlantic were suppressed, and then the south cashed in, and then we have had a few slop storms. Why bet against the way this winter has gone, just because of pretty looking storm maps? I think everyone learned their lesson after this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 03:53 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:53 AM 3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Winter is over dude Gfs isn't even fully out yet and we aren't going to waste a negative ao at negative 5 and a positive PNA. Something will pop for us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted Monday at 03:55 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:55 AM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs isn't even fully out yet and we aren't going to waste a negative ao at negative 5 and a positive PNA. Something will pop for us. dont do it to yourself dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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