Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 08:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:55 PM 26 minutes ago, Rjay said: Predicting a complete whiff Or 3 feet. It's a coin flip with the icon Nevermind it's a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Sunday at 09:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:01 PM 2 hours ago, wdrag said: Of course I worry but we're 96-108 hours out... we are modeled to be grazed and that's kind what the thread P!- headline tried to caution. I dont expect a big one here, but I continue 2-6" for the NYC subforum. Maybe I'm too high, but I think being steady with the original perception and cautions is working. Maybe WPC is too strong too? per it's attached 16z/16 issuance for D5 Thursday, using the legend color bar probs for 3" or more of snow. I'll throw in the towel tomorrow afternoon if all the 12z-18z/17 ensembles are less than 1" NYC. High pressure WAYYYY out west and room to edge north. Enjoy what you can in life... Walt et al - wondering what you think of the latest WPC map on likelihood of achieving warning level snowfall in the next 4 days (30-50% for CNJ/NYC/LI). I wouldn't think this would be so high, but iirc, WPC goes off the NBM and the NBM at 13Z is way more bullish than I would imagine, even considering it's time lagged (but I can't imagine it's still including very snowy outcomes from 12Z yesterday, can you?). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreadTheNeedle Posted Sunday at 09:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:08 PM 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It seems like a thread the needle pattern and it's either too far north or too far south... I couldn't agree more! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 09:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:16 PM Image 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 09:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:19 PM 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Image Better at H5. Almost back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 09:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:19 PM Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 09:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:19 PM Few inches like the euro. Warning up to Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted Sunday at 09:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:20 PM 18Z icon just your typical 100 mile shift every cycle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Sunday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:21 PM 25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: People forget that Brooklyn on east everyone had 12" or more. It was only the park that had 6 inches or whatever they had,. SI and NE NJ had smaller amounts too. These types of storms, the bands shift east around Monmouth Co or so, leaving us with lighter precip. Last Feb we finally jackpotted for a change and had nearly a foot IIRC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:21 PM Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:21 PM 30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It seems like a thread the needle pattern and it's either too far north or too far south. In a season like, say, 2014-15, we would have had snow across a wider range of solutions. Yeah it goes back to the fact that 2000 through 2018 was like 55 through 69 where we had blocking in the right places and a dominant PNA ridge or EPO. This probably happened a lot 1970 through 1999 (I know I have stated this at exhaustion LOL). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 09:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:23 PM 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: SI and NE NJ had smaller amounts too. These types of storms, the bands shift east around Monmouth Co or so, leaving us with lighter precip. Last Feb we finally jackpotted for a change and had nearly a foot IIRC. I remember those two storms and they were pretty decent here too, 4 inches in one and 6 inches in the other at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:26 PM 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Few inches like the euro. Warning up to Monmouth county Warning is a bit south of there around AC or even Cape May. Really brutal run for DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Sunday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:26 PM Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yeah it goes back to the fact that 2000 through 2018 was like 55 through 69 where we had blocking in the right places and a dominant PNA ridge or EPO. This probably happened a lot 1970 through 1999 (I know I have stated this at exhaustion LOL). The Newark Star Ledger ( I have to mention this at least once a winter ) in 1991 ran a feature on "whatever happened to winter?" Winter started to return in March 92 and went gangbusters in 93 and 94, dialed back to one big storm in 95, and then 96, the gold standard....and nothing again until the New Years storm of 2000-01, and the headlines proclaimed it the biggest snow in 5 years, and it was, about 14 inches..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:26 PM Image 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Warning is a bit south of there around AC or even Cape May. Really brutal run for DC I was using kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM Nice jump n/w Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:27 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: I was using kuchera Please don't lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:28 PM Just now, Rjay said: Please don't lol Lol desperate times 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Sunday at 09:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:29 PM 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Nice jump n/w Image Give us that 974mb south of me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 09:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:29 PM Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Sunday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:32 PM It’s going to correct more, and favorably, this evening. It’s just beginning 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Sunday at 09:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:33 PM 3 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Image Take it and run with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:34 PM 1 minute ago, dseagull said: Take it and run with it. Big jump n/w on the ensembles 2 runs in a row 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted Sunday at 09:38 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:38 PM cant wait for this to miss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Sunday at 09:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:39 PM Just now, nycsnow said: Big jump n/w on the ensembles 2 runs in a row Patience. Approaching coastal scraper bomb territory already. Wouldnt take much more than 75 miles to give everyone their largest totals of the season. Looking forward to the server getting bogged down tonight or tomorrow morning when the Euro shows something closer to yesterday's early runs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM To me this seems to be all of nothing. Either it gets captured just in time and comes up to Delmarva latitude or doesn’t and shunts east at NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM 9 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Image Not a biggie or anything but verbatim would be the biggest event of the season for the immediate metro (sad but true). Hopefully this trends further! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:40 PM These big shifts just go to show the models have no clue wtf is going on 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:41 PM Gfs rolling let’s keep it going 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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