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Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?


wdrag
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2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the upper air pattern absolutely supported a large storm. that's what's so brutal about it. the "background state" stuff is bordering on pseudoscience. nobody can even truly explain what they mean when they say it

100 percent wrong, pattern always supported a southern slider, this was never a threat

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1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

The Joe bastardi accuweather blogs and endless snow hype is what brought me into this game in like 1999 or 2000

 

those old accuweather blogs were pretty cool 

Yes thats the thing, we can criticize his hype of snow but also recognize that he inspired many millions of people to get interested in weather

 

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18 minutes ago, North and West said:


I don’t really follow him, but don’t you think it’s the exact same mentality as warm mongerers here, or pundits continuously calling for a bull or bear market, or bookies making odds for a sporting event? People are just taking their shots hoping to be right to then enjoy the accolades.

My $0.02


.

It's worse because he sells himself as a professional with a degree, so he must know the secret sauce.

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yes thats the thing, we can criticize his hype of snow but also recognize that he inspired many millions of people to get interested in weather

 

It was all anyone had.....the only other thing I remember was Weathermatrix, who also worked for Accu....they started a forum in 2007, but the region was far too expansive, though Anthony's presence was obvious even there....

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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

100 percent wrong, pattern always supported a southern slider, this was never a threat

I disagree. Pattern definitely supported a threat but the indices don't mean as much as they used to. The northern stream is the killer and it has been for years now.

A strongly negative -AO and MJO phase 8 would've guaranteed a storm in the past. 

However I'm tired of all the hype and pretty maps everyone posts. Anyone can hype up a day 10 threat, but where's the results. Stick with 3 days or less and you won't be disappointed. 

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20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and with the current storm we are seeing the -5 AO cause  a cutter

 

This is the block right now see how far north and east it is. If this were further west and further south we would have had snow.

image.thumb.png.fe59735d38897e8f45e2d884342c4f70.png

This will be the block Thursday. See how far south it is and how strong it is. If this were a little weaker or a little further north we would have had snow. You could see the kicker storm on this depiction too. So yes it's too strong and negative 5 and too far south. Weaker or little North with this strength and we would have snowed.

image.thumb.png.c05531296865ddf71a962b34491f19ed.png

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6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

100 percent wrong, pattern always supported a southern slider, this was never a threat

Can you call the europeans and have them fix their euro model, and explain why it was wrong when it showed a storm coming up the coast? Thanks in advance. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

It's worse because he sells himself as a professional with a degree, so he must know the secret sauce.

I used to watch him on weather world at psu in the 90s. He is an actual meteorologist.  But he always goes cold and snowy and for a while thats what we had so he was right more than he was wrong. Once he left accuwx and went to wxbell and Twitter that was it though

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12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is the block right now see how far north and east it is. If this were further west and further south we would have had snow.

image.thumb.png.fe59735d38897e8f45e2d884342c4f70.png

This will be the block Thursday. See how far south it is and how strong it is. If this were a little weaker or a little further north we would have had snow. You could see the kicker storm on this depiction too. So yes it's too strong and negative 5 and too far south. Weaker or little North with this strength and we would have snowed.

image.thumb.png.c05531296865ddf71a962b34491f19ed.png

It seems like a thread the needle pattern and it's either too far north or too far south. In a season like, say, 2014-15, we would have had snow across a wider range of solutions.

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15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Too many years of steroid use would be my guess, though he always claimed he was all natural....but so did Lance Armstrong and most of the former GDR swimming teams......

This is funny in a few ways.  "JB's predictions for snow were typically 25% higher than average, but this was found to be due to PEDs."

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