weatherpruf Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Krs4Lfe said: Not sure why this is a surprise to anyone, the northern stream is too fast and that prevents a phase with the storm coming into lower Midwest. It's been the story for most of this winter, similar to the 2 storms in January. Unless the shortwave becomes stronger and the confluence backs off and allows for a phase, this storm is a southern slider *at best.* It's a surprise because the models were saying things were looking like the pieces were in place, and it is also our snowiest month. In the end reality asserted itself and said it doesn't care what we foresee, this is how it is. At least for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good news is this will probably be the last letdown this winter. EPS is warm to start Morch I agree totally. We will hit 90s and dews before we see a 2 inch snowfall again. Which is fine. If we get right to green grass and warmth and not have of these awful cold springs…geez. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: This is worse than 2010...at least we had some good events that winter, and weren't just shut out time after time. And yeah, I don't consider these piddly events worth much. Good for mood, yesterday was nice to walk in, but today, blecch.. 2009-2010? That was an absolutely amazing winter even with the miss in early February, NYC set its new record for monthly snowfall with 36.0 broken in January 2011 with 36.9. We also had the 15 inch snowstorm here in December 2009. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYER72 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 eh prob not a bad thing kinda getting sick of these nuisance slop / changeover events. The wait goes on for a bigger storm (if not this one) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good news is this will probably be the last letdown this winter. EPS is warm to start Morch what happened to that last snow event at the end of February lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: If Thursday comes down to 1-3 I’ll take it. Half you should goto banter thread you’re killin my vibe. Exactly. I'll gladly take 0.5" QPF, probably at a 15:1 ratio if the EPS were to verify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, LibertyBell said: 2009-2010? That was an absolutely amazing winter even with the miss in early February, NYC set its new record for monthly snowfall with 36.0 broken in January 2011 with 36.9. We also had the 15 inch snowstorm here in December 2009. My area actually underperformed every. freakin. storm. Still, 6-10 inches for 3 of them was still better than this mess; we missed a couple in Jan and a big one in Feb, and the Dec one also underperformed for my area, but a foot or so is still pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: I agree totally. We will 90s and dews before we see a 2 inch snowfall again. Which is fine. If we get right to green grads and warmth and not have of these awful cold springs…geez. That's just what today feels like, a cold wet April day. Yuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: what happened to that last snow event at the end of February lol Pattern regression after Mid-Feb, just like we saw last year. Rest assured, when you don't see pattern maps being posted here, it's because they're not good. Otherwise we would have seen "buckle up" "get ready" or "it's coming." Even though NYC only had 2-3" the past week despite the multiple waves and systems. SnowGoose has been spot on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I definitely lean more towards a total shutout here now. obviously we’re not seeing that on any ensembles or models yet but at this stage given the changes we’ve seen I suspect that once we get inside about 84 or 90 we’ll probably see this at a high risk of flattening out even further. I just warned some people online I said you might even have to be worried in DC, which I was telling people about here yesterday Based on 12Z so far, you may end up being right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 While ensembles are the way to go days out from a threat, the important thing to keep in mind is that ensemble systems (some more/less than others) tend to be underdispersive, meaning that more members will in general come out in the general direction of the operational. When you look at members showing various scenarios, the probabilities are not absolute probabilities - they're called experimental probabilities. While it's fair to say that taking all systems and other op solutions into account allows you to lean a certain way in your thinking (such as there probably being a higher chance of the system missing much of the NYC with heavy snow as of this current lead time), at point X lead time, all member solutions are still equally plausible. When there's still guidance members showing the outcome snow lovers want, it's still a plausible solution and can't be ruled out yet. Definitely understand not being optimistic when the 84 hour NAM is the lifeline, (and I personally wouldn't be right now if I still lived in and forecasted for the NY area), but there really is plenty of time for changes. Past misses this winter aren't necessarily prologue, while it's 4+ days out. This post may end up meaning nothing, but I think it's some good context when tracking winter threats. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The pacific jet does us in again. What was a historic setup; a retrograding western -NAO, the blocking with the banana high, the 50/50 low and the PV lobe phase with an impressive southern stream all gone in a little over 24 hours. I was intrigued with the potential but never fully bought into it. Only if the big storm was there on Monday I would have jumped in. The elusive KU has slipped through our fingers. Is it too much to ask for a run of the mill 3-6 inch event? Could very well be. In closing these last few winter seasons have been frustrating to say the least. Now there’s talk in the NE forum next winter about a modoki El Niño which happens to be the most conducive to snow in the eastern US. Not if the PAC jet has anything to say about it. Sorry for the rant guys. Carry on. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: While ensembles are often the way to go days out from a threat, the important thing to keep in mind is that ensemble systems (some more/less than others) tend to be underdispersive, meaning that more members will in general come out in the general direction of the operational. When you look at members showing various scenarios, the probabilities are not absolute probabilities - they're called experimental probabilities. While it's fair to say that taking all systems and other op solutions into account allows you to lean a certain way in your thinking (such as there probably being a higher chance of the system missing much of the NYC with heavy snow as of this current lead time), at point X lead time, all member solutions are still equally plausible. When there's still guidance members showing the outcome snow lovers want, it's still a plausible solution and can't be ruled out yet. Definitely understand not being optimistic when the 84 hour NAM is the lifeline, (and I personally wouldn't be right now if I still lived in and forecasted for the NY area), but there really is plenty of time for changes. Past misses this winter aren't necessarily prologue, while it's 4 days out. This post may end up meaning nothing, but I think it's some good context when tracking winter threats. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk Great post, thank you. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: what happened to that last snow event at the end of February lol Poof i don’t see much past this threat on the 20th 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Social media jumped on it. The click baters. Even the news 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Poof i don’t see much past this threat on the 20th And why should we even believe the eps now ? 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Yanksfan said: The pacific jet does us in again. What was a historic setup; a retrograding western -NAO, the blocking with the banana high, the 50/50 low and the PV lobe phase with an impressive southern stream all gone in a little over 24 hours. I was intrigued with the potential but never fully bought into it. Only if the big storm was there on Monday I would have jumped in. The elusive KU has slipped through our fingers. Is it too much to ask for a run of the mill 3-6 inch event? Could very well be. In closing these last few winter seasons have been frustrating to say the least. Now there’s talk in the NE forum about a modoki El Niño which happens to be the most conducive to snow in the eastern US. Not if the PAC jet has anything to say about it. Sorry for the rant guys. Carry on. If we still have boiling SSTs east of Japan going into next winter, the northern stream Pacific jet will likely be supercharged again and lead to much the same outcome. The colder winter this year gave us a fighting chance for the minor snow events we have but when you have 100 shortwaves sprayed all over the country all destructively interfering and bolting east, this is the outcome we get. No one should be surprised which thankfully it seems like people are accepting. Bring on spring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Even the news They have no choice once it goes viral that a major blizzard is coming. They have to mention it and temper expectations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If we still have boiling SSTs east of Japan going into next winter, the northern stream Pacific jet will likely be supercharged again and lead to much the same outcome. The colder winter this year gave us a fighting chance for the minor snow events we have but when you have 100 shortwaves sprayed all over the country all destructively interfering and bolting east, this is the outcome we get. No one should be surprised which thankfully it seems like people are accepting. Bring on spring. I hate spring and summer. Too hot especially in summer and way too many people outside. Makes my Jon harder. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I have a weird feeling that the models will bring the storm back. Not sure to what extent. We aren't getting out of MJO 8 without a snowstorm. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Great post, thank you. You're welcome! Honestly as someone who grew up in Queens with snowstorms my number one drive to getting into this field, I understand the frustration. We're somehow on track to end up with a solidly below normal temperature AND well below normal snowfall winter out here in the Chicago area lol. We just had a system back on Wednesday go from being in a winter storm watch two days out to a 1-5" event for most of the area. And then there was some potential for the current messy system hitting the northeast to become a solid storm out here and especially just east of here, and that missed as well (we did get a nice 2-4 hour burst of moderate to heavy snow Friday night). Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have a weird feeling that the models will bring the storm back. Not sure to what extent. We aren't getting out of MJO 8 without a snowstorm. I do, too. Could be wrong but the correction was just so much that it seems too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have a weird feeling that the models will bring the storm back. Not sure to what extent. We aren't getting out of MJO 8 without a snowstorm. The MJO? This hasn’t equated to storms up here. This storm is not coming back, and increasingly a goner for the mid atlantic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: You're welcome! Honestly as someone who grew up in Queens with snowstorms my number one drive to getting into this field, I understand the frustration. We're somehow on track to end up with a solidly below normal temperature AND well below normal snowfall winter out here in the Chicago area lol. We just had a system back on Wednesday go from being in a winter storm watch two days out to a 1-5" event for most of the area. And then there was some potential for the current messy system hitting the northeast to become a solid storm out here and especially just east of here, and that missed as well (we did get a nice 2-4 hour burst of moderate to heavy snow Friday night). Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk Interesting that 98-99 was an analog for this winter and I was in Chicago that winter for the great news year snowstorm. I guess out here it's a colder version of that winter but nothing like it in the upper midwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This is so over 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, mob1 said: This is so over Give it to tuesday 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, mattinpa said: I do, too. Could be wrong but the correction was just so much that it seems too much. I agree. We had every model agreeing on a snowstorm which never happened this winter just to have everything go away ? No way. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: The MJO? This hasn’t equated to storms up here. This storm is not coming back, and increasingly a goner for the mid atlantic. Okay then stop tracking 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, mob1 said: This is so over 24 hours ago the Ukie had this storm basically sitting on the Jersey shore lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now