North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Why bother? just go to the last few and you can see it’s the same song and dance as the entire winter. The south steals our snow, again. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, North and West said: The question on everyone’s mind then is, how much for MMU? . Oh, I forgot to say. 2.27” may change slightly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Oh, I forgot to say. 2.27” may change slightly. Ok, great. Tuned up my auger yesterday. 🫠. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I don’t see this being more than a 1-2, 1-3 inch event north and west of NYC. The city itself, on east (LI) and especially south might be 3+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I don’t see this being more than a 1-2, 1-3 inch event north and west of NYC. The city itself, on east (LI) and especially south might be 3+ It depends what happens the next couple days. A lot can still change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I don’t see this being more than a 1-2, 1-3 inch event north and west of NYC. The city itself, on east (LI) and especially south might be 3+In related news, water is wet.. 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I don’t see this being more than a 1-2, 1-3 inch event north and west of NYC. The city itself, on east (LI) and especially south might be 3+ Not sure how you come up with that deduction for a system 4 days away 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 AI shifted west a hair Good Hit for Li and se jersey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I don’t see this being more than a 1-2, 1-3 inch event north and west of NYC. The city itself, on east (LI) and especially south might be 3+ Too early to say 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Too early to say read Walts post above - he is thinking a 2 - 6" powder event - right now thats the most reasonable prediction unless new data today proves otherwise..of course IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: read Walts post above - he is thinking a 2 - 6" powder event - right now thats the most reasonable prediction unless new data today proves otherwise..of course IMO Agree I would be happy with that but of course we all want a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, MorristownWx said: Got locked out of my account because I forgot my password and wasn’t getting an email to reset. Decided to get a more accurate name to reflect location. Maybe the name change will bring us some luck formerly BoulderWx The same thing once happened to me. Had to create a new account due to lost password. Maybe the mods can look into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Really nice progression of QPF steadily increasing (likely snow at >10:1 ratios with temps around 20F) on the ECMWF-AIFS since yesterday. it now shows 0.5" QPF along 95 (that would be ~7" at 14:1 ratios) and up to 0.7" QPF for the coast (10" at 14:1), whereas it was only showing 0.1-0.2" QPF yesterday along 95. Considering that the AIFS has been the one model always showing a coastal scraper to even a complete miss for days, this is a big shift NW with the precip shield. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 36 minutes ago, North and West said: In related news, water is wet. . Lol though It's ironic to state this here, since practically the entire reason most are here in the winter is to see if the water will be wet or frozen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Didn’t really want to see the euro/eps take a step back at 06z. Sometimes these off hour runs do odd things but we need to see a good trend at 12z The ensemble mean took a bit of a step back, but the Op didn't, at least at the surface with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Still my early thoughts, but I think this will be a good hit, most likely our biggest event for everyone in this sub, save for extreme north/west areas. Jersey Coast and LI look like the best shot for now. I still have zero care for any qpf or snow maps until today's migraine maker (ugh) gets on out of here. I wouldn't be surprised if we continue to see some gradual trends to the west today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I definitely lean more towards a total shutout here now. obviously we’re not seeing that on any ensembles or models yet but at this stage given the changes we’ve seen I suspect that once we get inside about 84 or 90 we’ll probably see this at a high risk of flattening out even further. I just warned some people online I said you might even have to be worried in DC, which I was telling people about here yesterday 5 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I definitely lean more towards a total shutout here now. obviously we’re not seeing that on any ensembles or models yet but at this stage given the changes we’ve seen I suspect that once we get inside about 84 or 90 we’ll probably see this at a high risk of flattening out even further. I just warned some people online I said you might even have to be worried in DC, which I was telling people about here yesterday please explain why ????? seems to me everything looks great with the track until it gets past Hatteras and then fades out to sea- whats causing that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I definitely lean more towards a total shutout here now. obviously we’re not seeing that on any ensembles or models yet but at this stage given the changes we’ve seen I suspect that once we get inside about 84 or 90 we’ll probably see this at a high risk of flattening out even further. I just warned some people online I said you might even have to be worried in DC, which I was telling people about here yesterday So no more changes ? What ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Long range nam looks good 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Long range nam looks good LOL the nam. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Long range nam looks good at 84 hours they all look good wait and see what happens with the LP once it passes Hatteras.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: If the two forecast periods were 12 hours apart rather than 6 it would be more informative. We might be looking at the same qpf in both of those frames. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: at 84 hours they all look good wait and see what happens with the LP once it passes Hatteras.... Still got a primary hint in WV, that probably ends well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: at 84 hours they all look good wait and see what happens with the LP once it passes Hatteras.... It’s a lot more amped than the GFS which is typical at this range. It closes off the ULL in a good spot. But it’s probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Icon sw looks a bit stronger and confluence a tad weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Long range nam looks good Hard to say if it slides out or comes up the coast or grazes us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Trends looking slightly better overnight. Not a bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Icon misses everyone from dca-north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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