brooklynwx99 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, but the precipitation field was more expensive. I wonder if that’s more because of the ULL passing through? almost certainly. probably some weird double barrel action in there too that leads to the model plotting the center east 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, NEG NAO said: individual members all over the place - that tells us something - they are still going to adjust to more of a consensus as we inch closer to showtime Positive trend with the euro. Hopefully wake up to some good 6z news 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Positive trend with the euro. Hopefully wake up to some good 6z news its still a moderate snowstorm at least for the immediate metro - and still could be more then that - doubt it will be less then what we are seeing modeled now on the EURO IMO - Overall I think the Euro's have the best handle on this entire situation right now.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: its still a moderate snowstorm at least for the immediate metro - and still could be more then that - doubt it will be less then what we are seeing modeled now on the EURO IMO - Overall I think the Euro's have the best handle on this entire situation right now.... Totally agree. I think we are still seeing the normal model fluctuations that we see before most of them narrow down to more of a consensus. Once we get to President's Day we should begin to see a more clear cut trend. They will probably continue to go back and forth debating the track and position of the upper low, the kicker, and the surface track for the next 24-36 hours. Right now, I think this can end up going either way. But it certainly looks better than earlier and than on the other models. WX/PT 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 In 12 hours we went from every model showing a significant to major (or more) storm at 12Z to all but one of them showing nothing more than a coastal scraper (several inches towards the coast with little to no snow along/NW of 95). Not sure what's more unprecedented, most of the models showing a major to historic storm over the last 48 hours (which is extremely rare 4.5-6 days out) or that near consensus going into the shitter 4 days before the event for almost every model. Almost. Until the Euro saved Christmas, lol. Seriously, though, if the pros/experts are dumbfounded how are us hobbyists supposed to feel? One thing I will say, though, is that If a much less snowy outcome isn't a blip and is somewhat close to where we end up, it would prove to be perhaps the biggest modeling coup ever - for the Euro AIFS, which for days has been showing a coastal scraper or complete miss (apart from 12Z today, where it did show 3-5/4-8" snow for most) and has never shown a major storm unlike every other model (multiple runs). Let's hope it's not a coup. Debating not tracking at all tomorrow and being surprised on Monday, lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 AIFS is actually a hit. shocked 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: AIFS is actually a hit. shocked Going to be a fun few days ahead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Good Sunday morning everyone, As you're assessing... I've no change to this headline. Might adjust it Monday if I can shorten the window of opportunity. Despite several ops missing to the southeast of us, the strength of coming shortwave, and the already in place snowstorm for the Delmarva-nw 1/3rd NC (ice remainder of the interior Carolinas) tells me we'll at least be on the northern fringe of a 2-6" powder event. Room for error and the debate will continue but I'm in for snow entire NYC subforum, just how much (WPC overnight shift continues 30-50% chance for more than 3" here). This might be the last solid opportunity for Feb, with cold air in place. It wont be a KU but like yesterday's 0.2-1.8" snowfall for much of the NYC subforum, it adds up to a nice Feb, presuming my own perception from the 00z/16 ensembles is correct. Probably my last on this today and baby sitting tonight-Tue AM so time will be shorter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GM Nam 06z run which is worth basically nothing at this stage has a pretty good look at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 icon 6z north 6z 0z run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS is north a little. Can we get some north trends here today 12z runs Have a great day everyone! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Feen said: GFS is north a little. Can we get some north trends here today 12z runs Have a great day everyone! Yep slightly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Got locked out of my account because I forgot my password and wasn’t getting an email to reset. Decided to get a more accurate name to reflect location. Maybe the name change will bring us some luck formerly BoulderWx 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Nice tick west on gefs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, MorristownWx said: Got locked out of my account because I forgot my password and wasn’t getting an email to reset. Decided to get a more accurate name to reflect location. Maybe the name change will bring us some luck formerly BoulderWx Better name, kept thinking you were reporting weather from Boulder, Colorado and why do you care about weather in the northeast. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYER72 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 so NY Metro might be on the cusp of another 1-3 event at least?. I guess that's where expectations should lie and be happily surprised with more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, NYER72 said: so if im right NY Metro might be on the cusp of another 1-3 event. I guess that's where expectations should lie and be happily surprised with more. in weather time, it could be a foot or 1-3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 42 minutes ago, Feen said: GFS is north a little. Can we get some north trends here today 12z runs Have a great day everyone! North and west would be best. Not much improvement but at least not worse. We shall name the storm Lazarus if it somehow resurrects itself the next couple of days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro 12z and 00z runs the next 18 hours should be telling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 hours ago, dseagull said: Its coming buddy... Yankee fan here but let's go Mets go,,,as I'm a bigger snow fan,,,,,,overnight model runs renewed enthusiasm and hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 57 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice tick west on gefs Lets Go Mets Go,,,,,,liking the overnight trends much more than yesterdays runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 24 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Lets Go Mets Go,,,,,,liking the overnight trends much more than yesterdays runs Euro went east at 6z. Still gives the city several inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Hopefully no one’s neck broke with the whiplash of chasing model runs. Weather is chaotic; for now be confident the players might get on the field in time to give us a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Got locked out of my account because I forgot my password and wasn’t getting an email to reset. Decided to get a more accurate name to reflect location. Maybe the name change will bring us some luck formerly BoulderWx . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Waking up to catch up on 200+ posts on weather model and storm tracking is an encapsulation of the human emotional experience.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Waking up to catch up on 200+ posts on weather model and storm tracking is an encapsulation of the human emotional experience..Why bother? just go to the last few and you can see it’s the same song and dance as the entire winter. The south steals our snow, again. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, North and West said: Waking up to catch up on 200+ posts on weather model and storm tracking is an encapsulation of the human emotional experience. . Sure is, I always said that these boards should be mandatory reading for psychology majors and 1st years lol. My thoughts on NYC and points east being better suited in this set up remains and most (all?) models reflect that to varying degrees. I have my reservations sitting 30 miles west, but that could also be my slight conservative bias when forecasting for my area. as others have said, it’s about 4 days out from a potential storm and all the players there. How and when should start being ironed out over the next 36 hours or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Why bother? just go to the last few and you can see it’s the same song and dance as the entire winter. The south steals our snow, again. . They stole it? Did you file a report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Didn’t really want to see the euro/eps take a step back at 06z. Sometimes these off hour runs do odd things but we need to see a good trend at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Sure is, I always said that these boards should be mandatory reading for psychology majors and 1st years lol. My thoughts on NYC and points east being better suited in this set up remains and most (all?) models reflect that to varying degrees. I have my reservations sitting 30 miles west, but that could also be my slight conservative bias when forecasting for my area. as others have said, it’s about 4 days out from a potential storm and all the players there. How and when should start being ironed out over the next 36 hours or so. The question on everyone’s mind then is, how much for MMU?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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