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Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?


wdrag
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Desperate times call for desperate measures.   I'll call up my addict friends and tell them I'm sailing for a deep drop trip to the Hudson Canyon on Wednesday and Thursday for tilefish.  

 

Guarantee we get a tucked 965mb low inside the benchmark if i make these plans.  I'll put 700 gallons of diesel in the boat first thing tomorrow morning.  

 

You can all thank me later. 

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6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

 Makes me question this trend. Models don’t jump hundreds of miles in a couple hours. Not saying it’s wrong just odd and hopefully them overreacting going from one extreme to other 

apparently they are all gathering the similar data the last run or 2 that is changing the models forecast output - but they are programmed differently which causes different solutions sometimes

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4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

 Makes me question this trend. Models don’t jump hundreds of miles in a couple hours. Not saying it’s wrong just odd and hopefully them overreacting going from one extreme to other 

This is what I was questioning earlier.  Im not sure i understand the sudden consensus.  They are all either very right, or very wrong.   But it's clearly the same data.  I dont have access to the maps right now.  

 

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4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

would really like to know which gathered data that was put into the latest model runs caused these drastic shifts to the east

Exactly what I’m thinking. Models shifting hundreds of miles is not a trend or an end all to this threat. I’d expect some positive changes over the next 24 hours. Most likely once the current storm is done with.

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Just now, allgame830 said:

Exactly what I’m thinking. Models shifting hundreds of miles is not a trend or an end all to this threat. I’d expect some positive changes over the next 24 hours. Most likely once the current storm is done with.

Ill put 700 gallons of diesel in the boat anyway, just for good measure.   

 

Fyi: I take PayPal, venmo, and personal checks.  Diesel isn't cheap.  

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3 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Exactly what I’m thinking. Models shifting hundreds of miles is not a trend or an end all to this threat. I’d expect some positive changes over the next 24 hours. Most likely once the current storm is done with.

the current dynamics of this current weekend storm being so strong could be be affecting the data that is being gathered and injected into the models - once the playing field is cleared ( storm exits)so to say the models will have updated data and no interference from this system IMO 

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10 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Euro running 

important to watch the locations and strength of the HP's to the north and west and also exactly where the 50/50 low sets up and its strength at hour 48 that LP exiting to the north and east is at 965 quite strong

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pretty notable improvement. this is teetering on a knife’s edge

IMG_1809.thumb.gif.15e57121723e9dfcd3601135c5eaf7e0.gif

You can tell early on that this run would be better with how weaker the confluence was north of Maine.

now we need the eps to hold serve or improve

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3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

So close to being big

Image
 
prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.us_ne.png

only 50 -75 mile adjustment to the west makes a big difference in the immediate metro - must be the confluence that turns this east all of a sudden when it reaches the Delmarva region

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