winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Yes No way it’s a b. It’s a c at best Yeah I'd give it a C. It has been cold with numerous snowfalls, but it's a little disappointing to be at slightly below normal snowfall. It could've been an excellent winter with the consistent below normal temps. We need a significant snowstorm to raise the grade to a B or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 15 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: That is jogging away at such a drastic rate that if it keeps up it could wrap around the globe in the remaining runs between now and Thursday and end up nailing us after all. What do you mean jogging? It’s leaving Usain Bolt in the dust on its way east. I’d focus on ensembles for now and there’s still time for it to come back west but the rampaging Pacific jet has been the dominant theme this winter and ruined setup after setup. No one should be surprised if this ends up the same wasted potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GEFS big jump s/e as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: This just isn't true at all. Every model but the GFS was showing a massive hit just last night. In fact, the CMC was a huge interior hit as well. Bad trends today but lets not act like there wasn't a near consensus of a major storm just 24 hours ago. I'm still not counting this thing out, we'll have to wait for this current storm to get out of the way then we'll get a better sampling of the next storm. I'm not going to discount it when most of the major models had a huge storm for a few days prior to this one. 100%... especially not convincing since I have yet to see the exact mechanisms that lead to the shift for more than 2 consecutive runs. Current storm will loose interaction with the continent tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm going to bed. Night. Ant,,,,,,I think you need to save this storm and this winter and change your avatar back to the OLD one as people have suggested,,,,, drastic measures are needed brother we are half way through Feb = DO IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah I'd give it a C. It has been cold with numerous snowfalls, but it's a little disappointing to be at slightly below normal snowfall. It could've been an excellent winter with the consistent below normal temps. We need a significant snowstorm to raise the grade to a B or higher. I have almost 19” when my winter average is about 35”. It’s been a wintry month so I give it credit for that and the frequent cold but I can’t go higher than a C/C- when I’m at half my season snow average and there’s been so much potential flushed down the toilet. A quieter Pacific like we used to have and this would be a 50” winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: Ant,,,,,,I think you need to save this storm and this winter and change your avatar back to the OLD one as people have suggested,,,,, drastic measures are needed brother we are half wya through Feb = DO IT Was he Mets fan? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Ukie way se of previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 15 minutes ago, Rjay said: The pac has def been a killer. I was warning people last night then it was evident on the ensembles throughout yesterday even as the op runs were super amped. It's been a killer for years. Northern stream is too fast, unless that changes we're not going to get a classic coastal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, dseagull said: Was he Mets fan? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Ant,,,,,,I think you need to save this storm and this winter and change your avatar back to the OLD one as people have suggested,,,,, drastic measures are needed brother we are half wya through Feb = DO IT I can't until 30k more days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I think the models losing the storm is my fault. I put in to take off from work on Thursday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: Yep Wow. Time flies. Bring the name back, STAT! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, MJO812 said: I can't until 30k more days We'll see about that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Ukie way se of previous run And now we have NO model support to speak of. Except our imaginations I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Lets see if the high wind warning event verifies for Monday.... Would be nice to blow away all the ashes of the weenies that suddenly departed a storm threat 4 days out, solely on models. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, dseagull said: Lets see if the high wind warning event verifies for Monday.... Would be nice to blow away all the ashes of the weenies that suddenly departed a storm threat 4 days out, solely on models. If you’re still engaged so am I! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 It’s ova fellas. On to spring! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, allgame830 said: If you’re still engaged so am I! The whiplash is incoming. Im in so much pain from puting the CG on a hip tow solo today that I can't sleep. May as well tow the line with the incoming storm threat. I've read this book a few hundred times. I'm still confident that the king will bring this back in the next 18 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, Rjay said: We'll see about that and I quote "Holy Hell " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Maybe this will come back in a couple days. In the past models would lose the storm in the mid range only to bring it back later. However if the kicker idea is correct then there's no coming back from this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, dseagull said: The whiplash is incoming. Im in so much pain from puting the CG on a hip tow solo today that I can't sleep. May as well toe the line with the incoming storm threat. I've read this book a few hundred times. I'm still confident that the king will bring this back in the next 18 hours. I screenshot this to let all of those waving the white flag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I screenshot this to let all of those waving the white flag! Good on you! Most would fear being labeled as a wishcaster, or delusional... or desperate... lol I just have a difficult time believing that all models would suddenly and accurately find consensus at this lead time before the cirrent storm has left the region. Generally, this (in my experience planning work on the water,) has resulted from similar data sets being ingested into all models. It's not to say they are wrong, but it's a bit peculiar this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Yeah ok that’s not a trend that’s more like a whiplash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think the models losing the storm is my fault. I put in to take off from work on Thursday. Well then you better take that back and instead tell them you'll work overtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Ukie wasn’t as horrible as the cmc and gfs, wouldn’t take much to bring Ukie back Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Good god... only a 300 mile jump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, dseagull said: Good god... only a 300 mile jump. Makes me question this trend. Models don’t jump hundreds of miles in a couple hours. Not saying it’s wrong just odd and hopefully them overreacting going from one extreme to other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Yeah ok that’s not a trend that’s more like a whiplash would really like to know which gathered data that was put into the latest model runs caused these drastic shifts to the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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