nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Gfs is legit flurries… this thing might be dead by euro run tonight 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 CMC is mainly a miss like GFS. Bad night, but we still have 4 days to go. It's close enough that we're in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Waiting until the current storm goes by to get heartbroken again. Can’t believe the GFS isn’t even major in DC though. Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I mean this sincerely, can we really be upset at this winter though? It's been cold and we've had plenty of 1-3 events....but we've had a lot of days with snow cover If winter were to end today id rate it a B- We're damn near normal snowfall off 1-3" snowfalls lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Nah. Now we very little support for a hit for this subforum. Its been 2 days since the GFS showed a hit and the Euro has trended away to gone. Lesser models following suit. I don’t think any majors showed a hit today, even for the last 36 hours…except maybe the ukie. So why WOULD you think this has a realistic chance? The answer can’t be just cuz it happened before. Basically no support right now. It’s also a very rare storm setup so, no surprise, we won’t experience one. Almost nothing going for it except if success is being within 500 miles of it. If we were looking at it from the point of view of someone who didn’t want the storm - we have nothing to fear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, SRRTA22 said: I mean this sincerely, can we really be upset at this winter though? It's been cold and we've had plenty of 1-3 events....but we've had a lot of days with snow cover If winter were to end today id rate it a B- We're damn near normal snowfall off 1-3" snowfalls lol It has been a decent winter. However with below normal temps December through February, I'd like to have at least slightly above normal snowfall instead of the slightly below normal snowfall that we have to this date. Hopefully we can add on some more Thursday, but obviously that's very questionable right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 We still have UKMET and EURO tonight. Hopefully they'll look better than GFS and CMC did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Absolutely brutal trends hopefully the models are just over correcting Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, nycsnow said: Absolutely brutal trends hopefully the models are just over correcting Image I'm still confident 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Gfs is legit flurries… this thing might be dead by euro run tonight Doesn't look promising. But similarly, model consensus isn't always a bad thing 4 days out, even if the desired results arent there. The same data is being ingested into each model, and the same data is not always useful data until all of the energy is on the continent and begins to interact. Models follow suit for a reason, and diverge for a reason. I'm not convinced that the same signal doesn't still exist. Give me 3 straight runs of confluence winning out within 96 hour lead time and ill fly the white flag. Looking forward to to the runs tomorrow morning. Taco bell is always reliable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 That is jogging away at such a drastic rate that if it keeps up it could wrap around the globe in the remaining runs between now and Thursday and end up nailing us after all. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I'm still confident And you know you're not going to bed Ant, lol. You'll stay up to see the other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Trolled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: I mean this sincerely, can we really be upset at this winter though? It's been cold and we've had plenty of 1-3 events....but we've had a lot of days with snow cover If winter were to end today id rate it a B- We're damn near normal snowfall off 1-3" snowfalls lol Agreed. We have had consistent snow cover out here. It’s felt like winter. B- is spot on. that being said I’m ready for spring 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The weenies can cling to hope but it is a mirage at best. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I really believe this isn't the end of our big storm tonight. I believe we will start to see a change with tomorrow night's model run or Monday morning at the latest. Time will tell. I sensed this happening when I gave an update to my coworkers at midday. I was concerned about the euro and sure enough the euro went the other direction. There is a lot of volatility on the Plainfield right now and I believe the models do not have a grip on it and won't until we get this weekend storm out of here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: The weenies can cling to hope but it is a mirage at best. Negative 5 AO and nothing ? I doubt it. Watch this come back. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Agreed. We have had consistent snow cover out here. It’s felt like winter. B- is spot on. that being said I’m ready for spring Ah, common'.... im literally 6 weeks into my 9 weeks of non-24/7 work.... take one for the team and allow me one good plowable storm. ...then, bring on the heat, drunken boaters, bennys/ahoobies/googans, thunderstorms, sunburn, and crippling insomnia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Agreed. We have had consistent snow cover out here. It’s felt like winter. B- is spot on. that being said I’m ready for spring I can't give a B- when I'm sitting at less than 15". It def felt more like winter. I guess I'll give a grade on April 1st. This threat isn't dead yet either. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 There’s no mechanism to make this move back northwest. The northern stream acts as a kicker and if it’s not perfectly places with the storm, then we end up with a southern slider. Aside from 2021 and Jan 2022, the fast PAC jet since 2019 has been in charge. That won’t change 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Krs4Lfe said: There’s no mechanism to make this move back northwest. The northern stream acts as a kicker and if it’s not perfectly places with the storm, then we end up with a southern slider. Aside from 2021 and Jan 2022, the fast PAC jet since 2019 has been in charge. That won’t change So nothing will change in 4-5 days ? Okay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The pac has def been a killer. I was warning people last night then it was evident on the ensembles throughout yesterday even as the op runs were super amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, MJO812 said: So nothing will change in 4-5 days ? Okay Lol relax killa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: I can't give a B- when I'm sitting at less than 15". It def felt more like winter. I guess I'll give a grade on April 1st. This threat isn't dead yet either. Yea I’m giving it an F if nothing changes waste of cold. More salt accumulation on streets this year then snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Krs4Lfe said: There’s no mechanism to make this move back northwest. The northern stream acts as a kicker and if it’s not perfectly places with the storm, then we end up with a southern slider. Aside from 2021 and Jan 2022, the fast PAC jet since 2019 has been in charge. That won’t change It can, if spacing is being depicted incorrectly. This is where I would like to learn from the current maps. Is there a way to embed loops? Most are way too large in file size to post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: I can't give a B- when I'm sitting at less than 15". It def felt more like winter. I guess I'll give a grade on April 1st. This threat isn't dead yet either. Yes No way it’s a b. It’s a c at best 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Does anyone have the GEFS ensembles and how they compare to last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Nah. Now we very little support for a hit for this subforum. Its been 2 days since the GFS showed a hit and the Euro has trended away to gone. Lesser models following suit. I don’t think any majors showed a hit today, even for the last 36 hours…except maybe the ukie. So why WOULD you think this has a realistic chance? The answer can’t be just cuz it happened before. Basically no support right now. It’s also a very rare storm setup so, no surprise, we won’t experienceWell one. Almost nothing going for it except if success is being within 500 miles of it. If we were looking at it from the point of view of someone who didn’t want the storm - we have nothing to fear. This just isn't true at all. Every model but the GFS was showing a massive hit just last night. In fact, the CMC was a huge interior hit as well. Bad trends today but lets not act like there wasn't a near consensus of a major storm just 24 hours ago. I'm still not counting this thing out, we'll have to wait for this current storm to get out of the way then we'll get a better sampling of the next storm. I'm not going to discount it when most of the major models had a huge storm for a few days prior to this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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