LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 30 minutes ago, mob1 said: If I had to pick something positive from this run, it's that the storm is already so strong at that latitude. The 2015 storm that phased too late for us (and buried LI and New England) scarred me for life. we forgot about January 2015 when we experienced January 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Congrats Virginia. If this happens I happily welcome Spring Seriously, if SE VA and Delmarva end with significantly more snow than NYC and get crushed yet again when we get cirrus or another BS 1-3” fringe, spring needs to get here asap. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 48 minutes ago, MANDA said: That storm was not locked in until the afternoon of. The LFM lost it on the night before. I remember it very well. The morning of nobody was predicting 12" for NYC, never mind 20". I THINK maybe forecasts the morning of were in the 3-6" range. we got let out of school at noon that day February 1983 was a lot like PD2 and January 2016 All in strong el ninos, all trended north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Why are we talking about storms that disappeared and then came back. Obviously we know that can happen. Every storm is unique. Just as we can see things turn more positive in upcoming runs, it’s equally likely that things stay the same or trend worse. No amount of talking about past storms changed that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, jm1220 said: Seriously, if SE VA and Delmarva end with significantly more snow than NYC and get crushed yet again when we get cirrus or another BS 1-3” fringe, spring needs to get here asap. Appreciate the 1-3” events. Some winters are worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Congrats Virginia. If this happens I happily welcome Spring You already said its over. move on. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 50 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Yeah, seems like modeling has improved a lot in 14 years. January 2016 was far from a lock. Modeling has improved sure, but it's still not close to perfect and nothing is a sure thing until within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If it does end up as depicted by the Euro congrats Delmarva. I have to think that this may be their snowiest year in history if this comes through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I missed the last 24 hours of models. Can someone please give me a brief rundown of where we stand? Seems like 0Z runs were great and then today everything fell apart except for the GEFS trending better as everything else trended worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, EastonSN+ said: If it does end up as depicted by the Euro congrats Delmarva. I have to think that this may be their snowiest year in history if this comes through. Look up 1965-66, Norfolk Virginia, 40 plus inches of snow while we had 20 something (a normal winter for us, a historic one for them.) Our epic winter came the following year, 1966-67, after a historically hot and dry summer, 4 days of 100+ with 107 at LGA, 104 at JFK and 103 at NYC. The real head scratcher is this is a la nina, when such things are not supposed to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Seems like the 0Z CMC and EURO and 12Z UKMET were actually crazy on the coast, like almost into NYC. Not sure a freak out is called for over the 18Z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 EPS stays the same which is probably the only positive keep in mind the eps never bought into the ops mega blizzard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The 6Z EURO (literally from 12 hours ago) and 12Z UK look pretty darn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: EPS stays the same which is probably the only positive keep in mind the eps never bought into the ops mega blizzard Do you have the LP for the ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: EPS stays the same which is probably the only positive keep in mind the eps never bought into the ops mega blizzard It's really nice 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, MJO812 said: It's really nice Higher mean for my family in Chapel Hill than me lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Need some positivity tonight. Hopefully icon holds serve in less than 3 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I feel like we saw the famous windshield wiper effect today between 0z and 12/18z with the western and eastern extremes. I’m assuming 0z will be somewhere in between at least for the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's really nice Is that the mean for the entire event? Can you post the frame after that I want to see if it's heading north east or due east Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's really nice That’s a pretty dramatic lean west if you ask me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: That’s a pretty dramatic lean west if you ask me. It seems that there's two camps, one which is stronger and is closer to the coast and the other camp wish gains a certain amount of latitude then heads almost due east which is what the app did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It seems that there's two camps, one which is stronger and is closer to the coast and the other camp wish gains a certain amount of latitude then heads almost due east which is what the app did. Get that trend out west to reverse and it's game on. If it doesn't this will slip south and east and we'll end up near the fringe. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Let’s see what happens tonight 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 52 minutes ago, mikem81 said: I missed the last 24 hours of models. Can someone please give me a brief rundown of where we stand? Seems like 0Z runs were great and then today everything fell apart except for the GEFS trending better as everything else trended worse? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/14/2025 at 3:57 PM, brooklynwx99 said: Next week's system has become increasingly ominous and holds potential for significant to major impacts from DC - NYC and even BOS. There are a few features that make this such a favorable setup, mirroring past major and even historic storms: The most important feature of this setup is the retrograding and decaying west-based -NAO that migrates into central Canada. This is perhaps the most important feature for major EC snowstorms, and it is a huge factor here, as it slows the pattern down and locks in confluence. It also leads to the "banana" HP that often develops in these setups due to NVA downstream of the block. This is a lobe of the polar vortex (PV) that is the impetus for the storm threat. This lobe becomes trapped under the block and will be forced to pivot under it, leading to a potential phase with the southern stream vort (x) over TX/OK. This kind of slow-moving, amplified ULL is also a main feature of major storm threats. As is common in these setups, a disturbance, either coastal or otherwise, amplifies into the northern Atlantic and becomes trapped by the block, leading to a 50/50 ULL that departs. This is crucial for establishing confluence, which keeps heights in check downstream of the amplifying trough. Note how heights are zonal over ME and Atlantic Canada. Last but not least, there is a transient spike in heights over the Pacific NW that links up with the blocking. This is a crucial piece of the puzzle... if that disturbance offshore destructively interferes with the blossoming +PNA, you get a weaker solution. However, the trend has been for constructive interference, which helps lead to downstream amplification. It's also worth noting that this setup very closely mirrors past setups that delivered historic snowfall to the northern Mid-Atlantic. Notice the 500mb composite that has all four main features... the retrograding and decaying block, the amplifying trough over the MS River Valley, departing confluence, and a brief PNA spike as the storm is getting its act together. Suffice it to say, this is probably the best synoptic setup that we have seen enter the medium range since February 2021 and it does hold the potential to be just as impactful. The GFS not being on board is pretty common in these setups. However, we will want to see this amplification signal enter the 96 hour window, so if we see this signal last into Monday, talks about a legitimate major snowstorm will hold more weight. Right now, it's worth being cautious, but the pattern has been screaming this kind of outcome for a week now, and it is bolstered by past outcomes. Somehow I missed this yesterday - fantastic post, thanks! And thanks for posting it here, also. Loved your inclusion of the historical anomalies associated with NYC snowfalls over 18" over 30 years and your excellent discussion of how the current projected pattern matches these features, as well as the easy-to-understand graphics showing what you discussed. I'm guessing that's how you guys see the 500 mbar pattern 24 to maybe 48 hours before the event in a model run and say "we're loaded for a big snowstorm" (or not if you don't see it) - would that be correct? I've never studied synoptics, so don't have much feel for how the pros infer this. I do have a couple of questions, though, if you can indulge me: i) I see that you showed the Euro pattern about a day prior to our potential event start on Thursday to match the NCEP graphic which says the anomaly is seen 1 day in advance ("preloading"), but I was wondering if one sees this anomalous pattern for a few days before such an event and not just at 1 day before the event (and could that give one more lead time on confidence in a big snowstorm); and ii) I get that this is the composite anomaly for 18" snowstorms, but is there data on how often such anomalies occur and what percentage of them lead to 18" snowstorms for NYC (or even any snow)? I would imagine there's some percentage of time when these patterns don't lead to big snow, although maybe less frequently when they're as close to the event as 1 day before the event, but that's just a gut instinct. TIA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 31 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: lol The sabbath. What can I do. Recommend everyone take 25 hours off at this point and check back after that period. It’s healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, mob1 said: There was a storm earlier this year that had an almost identical progression to this (I'm almost sure it's @Stormlover74's avatar). Models showed an absolute bomb for a few cycles despite a tainted ridge, and eventually it showed the ridge rolling over and the storm stayed wayyyyyy out to sea. That one was mostly a gfs storm. The other models never really got on board then the gfs lost it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: The sabbath. What can I do. Recommend everyone take 25 hours off at this point and check back after that period. It’s healthy Like asking an alcoholic to take a week off drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Get that trend out west to reverse and it's game on. If it doesn't this will slip south and east and we'll end up near the fringe. FWIW, 18z was a start. this is a nice change with less destructive interference out west and a more amped ULL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Some people jumping ship way too early, it's kind of silly actually. Again, most models were showing a huge storm just last night so it's way too early to give up after one model suite (I hardly count the 18z models which tend to have wonky solutions). IF the trend continues tonight then more concern should be had but even then it'll still be too early to make any sweeping statements about what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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