SnowGoose69 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 At the very least we probably do not have to watch DC/VA get pounded this time, the setup overall is not really conducive for that to happen. Certainly Cape May/Delmarva the MA Islands could get hit while everyone misses but this one is more of a classic we all get hit in the major metros or we all miss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ukie looks nice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 WPB 16 %6-7 qpf attached Their 1/4" frozen probs were not available yet as 1144AM/14. I just want to caution... the headline said nothing about a big snow storm. It just said snow event and the initial thread body cautioned. Far too early to know and I'm a little worried the EC weeklies were too dry and negative about an event here from yesterdays 00z/13 cycle. If the modeled 5H closed low ends up positive tilted, this system could easily be mostly a miss. Can't put all our eggs in one basket except imo, to respect that there are different interests herein and not all will be satisfied with the thread, wishing for their own outcome. My goal on these threads is to alert us for more snow acc into CP and a potential hazardous wintry event for NYC-LI, not outlook a snowstorm 6 days in advance---just hard to do. We do know we have something significant on the horizon but the axes of max snowfall can easily be far different than what we see D6-7. Hope yes, but reality in advance is not confidently known, as yet. IF the EC suddenly loses the current predicted 500MB pattern, then its a se fade more for NC-Delmarva. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I would favor the CMC as of right now because the GFS OP was a complete miss too drastic a change in a few hours and its the worst performing model of the bunch - see if the GEFS agrees Gefs looks much better than the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The GEFS mean at 500mb is a pretty good match for the 12z CMC through 126hr. It looks good to me. But the evolution of the CMC after this time period is key for delivering a big coastal storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The warmest SSTs on record for February in the Gulf can work to our advantage with set up. Stronger convection and cyclogenesis early on can help to boost the 500 mb heights along the East Coast. Leading to a closer storm track to the benchmark. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 WPC D6 probs... hope it holds up here as we progress daily. Based primarily on 00z/14 guidance... NAEFS was good with this also, as also the BOM which has 6+ over all of NJ-LI by 12z/21. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The GEFS mean reflects some timing variability that is spreading out the QPF mean. There are a couple of different very minor h5 shortwaves that some individuals are keying on. Lots of spread on the GEFS even compared to the EPS and GEPS. There are a couple of good hits on the individuals, but not a ton. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, wdrag said: WPB 16 %6-7 qpf attached Their 1/4" frozen probs were not available yet as 1144AM/14. I just want to caution... the headline said nothing about a big snow storm. It just said snow event and the initial thread body cautioned. Far too early to know and I'm a little worried the EC weeklies were too dry and negative about an event here from yesterdays 00z/13 cycle. If the modeled 5H closed low ends up positive tilted, this system could easily be mostly a miss. Can't put all our eggs in one basket except imo, to respect that there are different interests herein and not all will be satisfied with the thread, wishing for their own outcome. My goal on these threads is to alert us for more snow acc into CP and a potential hazardous wintry event for NYC-LI, not outlook a snowstorm 6 days in advance---just hard to do. We do know we have something significant on the horizon but the axes of max snowfall can easily be far different than what we see D6-7. Hope yes, but reality in advance is not confidently known, as yet. IF the EC suddenly loses the current predicted 500MB pattern, then its a se fade more for NC-Delmarva. Don't worry Walt we won't blame you if things go wrong ! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ukie! 10 to 15 at 10:1 ratios 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The UK is kind of a classic major I-95 nor'easter. Snow takes forever to push northward from DC/Balt to our area and then the precip. shield wrap tighter into the bombing SLP and hammers the immediate coastal areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: The GEFS mean reflects some timing variability that is spreading out the QPF mean. There are a couple of different very minor h5 shortwaves that some individuals are keying on. Lots of spread on the GEFS even compared to the EPS and GEPS. There are a couple of good hits on the individuals, but not a ton. plus isn't the GFS OP just considered another ensemble member ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Blizzard of '78 vibes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: plus isn't the GFS OP just considered another ensemble member ? 6z and 18z OP runs are the worst performing by far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: plus isn't the GFS OP just considered another ensemble member ? I've heard that. But I don't believe it's true. The GFS OP is run at a higher vertical and horizontal resolution and also uses the observed initial state and boundary conditions. The individual ensemble members are run at a lower resolution with perturbed (adjusted) initial conditions. If you move far enough out in time horizon such that the resolution and data advantage of the OP run is minimized, I suppose the accuracy of any single individual member might approach the accuracy of the OP run. I'm thinking probably out beyond day 10. But at closer ranges the superior resolution and more accurate initial time steps of the OP should make it superior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Don't worry Walt we won't blame you if things go wrong ! LOL 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: plus isn't the GFS OP just considered another ensemble member ? I just respond to critics. This is the bigs so to speak... (DC-BOS) it all works both ways. What we get on here are some insights and maintaining situational awareness-reality checks. Adding the 12z GEFS which is snowier than the op... telling me a primary snowfall Va-Delmarva, but also their must be a cluster of members trying to send something up the coast, with quite a wide area of 1". 12z/14 GEFS, despite its 12z/14 op, says to keep monitoring until the EPS/CMCE say no snow up here. I think this fits the just released D6 probs as posted. a bit above in this thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 When was our last true miller A here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: I've heard that. But I don't believe it's true. The GFS OP is run at a higher vertical and horizontal resolution and also uses the observed initial state and boundary conditions. The individual ensemble members are run at a lower resolution with perturbed (adjusted) initial conditions. If you move far enough out in time horizon such that the resolution and data advantage of the OP run is minimized, I suppose the accuracy of any single individual member might approach the accuracy of the OP run. I'm thinking probably out beyond day 10. But at closer ranges the superior resolution and more accurate initial time steps of the OP should make it superior. also see the above, not all OP runs are the same, the 0z and 12z runs have higher verification scores because they use new upper air data 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: When was our last true miller A here? January 2018? and January 2016 before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I'm excited I'm interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Classic on the Euro. H5 closed over the midwest with a surface low developing south of Hatteras 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Rjay said: Classic on the Euro. H5 closed over the midwest with a surface low developing south of Hatteras 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: And there she comes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Rjay said: And there she comes Wow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Classic on the Euro. H5 closed over the midwest with a surface low developing south of Hatteras yup. thing of beauty. can kinda toss the GFS for this suite IMO 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Just gotta get that upper low to dig baby dig into Virginia and belly under and capture the surface low before it can escape so we get the whole shebang. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 What a nuke 2' plus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, MANDA said: Just gotta get that upper low to dig baby dig into Virginia and belly under and capture the surface low before it can escape so we get the whole shebang. it would be nice to see it stall and not scoot out of here in 12 hours. we need at least a 24-36 hour snowstorm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 this entire evolution is right out of the KU handbook 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro shows a bomb and the GFS is south east. I’ve read this book before. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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