Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 EPS still 4-6 on the mean but deamplified from 00z. the euro op has been the western outlier amongst the EPS the past few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 38 minutes ago, SACRUS said: FRom Mid Atlantic thread Most of this north of the city would be for today, which would leave almost nothing from this Thursday. Easy come easy go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Which I don't think is realistic, I think the window for this to hit DCA/BWI and miss everyone else is a narrow one. I suspect this hits all the big cities or none. Could see it where the Cape/Islands/SE NJ and maybe Delmarva are hit but not a case where the former occurs. Did not like seeing the individual members of the eps. At least nine of the 25 members show that worst case scenario of the Delmarva capen Islands. 5 give us the foot plus scenario. 4 give us a 6 to 12 scenario. 5 are complete misses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: EPS still 4-6 on the mean but deamplified from 00z. the euro op has been the western outlier amongst the EPS the past few runs I hope this ends up being the Southeastern most outlier but looking at the ensembles that's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, EastonSN+ said: I hope this ends up being the Southeastern most outlier but looking at the ensembles that's not the case. Lots of spread but obviously not a trend we want to continue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Lots of spread but obviously not a trend we want to continue I posted a lot earlier that I feared that this would miss us. Seeing the CMC move drastically East since 0z is also concerning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 WPC axis for Wed-THU. Similar. WPC not convinced on big amounts NYC. This looks more important for Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Lots of spread but obviously not a trend we want to continue Just chalk it up as a bad run. We move on, regroup and look forward to 18z. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: I posted a lot earlier that I feared that this would miss us. Seeing the CMC move drastically East since 0z is also concerning. The mean is still very solid, I wouldn’t rush to that judgement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Ukie delivers a bomb, euro says na im good and slides way southeast. #modelmayhem 32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It is amazing that the EURO track/snowfall hammers the exact spots that have been hit all year. That's pretty common. A pattern establishes itself and the same areas get hit time after time in a given season. I still think this has a chance to veer back to last night's and yesterday's track. WX/PT 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2nd eps panel 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Fluctuations back and forth of models' tracks are normal at this time-frame. It is NOT time to write off a very big storm for the NYC Metro Region. 2 days prior to the Boxing Day storm it was modeled to go out to sea. WX/PT 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: 2nd eps panel Sign me up for 28 please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said: That's pretty common. A pattern establishes itself and the same areas get hit time after time in a given season. I still think this has a chance to veer back to last night's and yesterday's track. WX/PT Well the sample is small, but years when we have the big storms, we usually keep getting smaller events most of the winter, sometimes even up to early April. In 2010 the pattern locked onto the Delmarva region and only relaxed a little in Feb, giving us a couple events. 2011 was our turn. 2014's parade off 6-10 inchers, and so on. The pattern this year is big snows to the south, 2-4 here. But I kept seeing that "suppression" couldn't happen here; if I'm reading right, the weather gods are finding another way to hit south.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The kicker trough out West was a little stronger this run so everything shifted east from 0z. Need to weaken that feature in future runs for a stronger Rockies Ridge and Southeast Ridge. But the Pacific has been acting as the spoiler in recent years. So it will be something to watch over the next few days. New run Old run 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The only thing scaring me is how euro fit the pattern all winter long. Thankfully times on our side for a day or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: The only thing scaring me is how euro fit the pattern all winter long. Thankfully times on our side for a day or 2 The trend out west is really bad on the eps. That's what's worrying. We need that to start reversing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: The only thing scaring me is how euro fit the pattern all winter long. Thankfully times on our side for a day or 2 Im routing for you city folks on this one. I've never been to the city with big snow on the ground, and have an opportunity to do some training in New York harbor on Saturday with some coworkers. Would be nice to see the city with a foot of snow blanketing the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: The trend out west is really bad on the eps. That's what's worrying. We need that to start reversing. Trends usually continue. Very bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, dseagull said: Im routing for you city folks on this one. I've never been to the city with big snow on the ground, and have an opportunity to do some training in New York harbor on Saturday with some coworkers. Would be nice to see the city with a foot of snow blanketing the ground. It won't be blanketing the ground; it will be piled high on corners with garbage sticking out, and will be black and grey. Wear something waterproof on your feet. If you can get to Central Park, if it even snows, it will be a lot better. Someone always builds a couple snow figures on the benches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: The trend out west is really bad on the eps. That's what's worrying. We need that to start reversing. We're all hungry for a big storm. Too hungry. 2-4 inches is going to be a big disappointment after all the serious discussions we were seeing. I never bought in; too far out, seen too many of these go wrong. But it should be obvious in a few days if nothing big is going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 23 hours ago, qg_omega said: Classic Euro bias is too close to the coast in these setups, would NOT toss the GFS. Know the bias, makes things easier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Rjay said: The trend out west is really bad on the eps. That's what's worrying. We need that to start reversing. Agreed, had hoped it was a fluke ops run thing that would be countered by the EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: It won't be blanketing the ground; it will be piled high on corners with garbage sticking out, and will be black and grey. Wear something waterproof on your feet. If you can get to Central Park, if it even snows, it will be a lot better. Someone always builds a couple snow figures on the benches. Good points. It all hinges on CG at battery park having enough room at the docks for me to leave the boat and venture into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Know the bias, makes things easier. Just wondering. Did you foresee the huge change at H5 on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 29 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Lots of spread but obviously not a trend we want to continue There is no trend. The models are bouncing around, some getting more amped, some getting more progressive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Know the bias, makes things easier. Yes, but gfs also trended closer to coast. Unless somewhere they meet in middle and it’s just moderate storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, nycsnow said: The only thing scaring me is how euro fit the pattern all winter long. Thankfully times on our side for a day or 2 That kicker shortwave out west has to weaken or slow down so our storm has room to amplify before getting booted east. But it's another symptom of the fast chaotic Pacific jet that's ruined chance after chance. We have time like you said for changes though. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, dseagull said: Good points. It all hinges on CG at battery park having enough room at the docks for me to leave the boat and venture into the city. Good luck. The harbor has become a focus of fall black fishing for the Sheepshead Bay boats that go for them. They can't fish NJ wrecks because the season starts too late. It isn't good anyway. I used to tie up to the rocks at the base of the Verrazano 35 years ago; can't do that anymore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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