Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 And here comes the euro to kill all our spirits lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 FRom Mid Atlantic thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Post hour 135 woild be telling, yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12z euro is no bueno 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 As SeyMourSnow (NE forum) says... DC to Philly does really well with many of the differing storm evolutions. I think NYC does well too... maybe not as consistently, though. Kinda reminds me of the 2016 blizzard four days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looks like the kicker out west pushed it out before it could climb. However it did keep with the winter theme of a light event here and the Delmarva and Virginia getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Euro is basically the Tuesday event just a couple of inches… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Euro keeps thew heavier snow to the south and brushes us with a moderate amount of snow. Not bad. We're talking 4 and a half days until first flakes, so we have a long way to go before we have a good idea on snow amounts for our area. Obviously a miss isn't out of the question too, but the potential looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Then again the difference between the 0z and 12z euro is massive. Nothing written in stone at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ukie delivers a bomb, euro says na im good and slides way southeast. #modelmayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 *for entertainment purposes for those around MMU* Saturday - 12Z Suite @ *10:1 ratios* - MMU - net gain or loss from 00z Friday runs - CMC: 5” (- 7.9”) - GFS: 5” (+ 5”) - EURO: 4” (-13”) - ICON: 18.3” (+ 18.1”) - UKIE: 18” (+ 11.6”) Blend Of Models = 10” Based on this suite alone, two clear and tightly clustered camps around 5 and 18 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Euro is basically the Tuesday event just a couple of inches… What are you talking about with Tuesday? Tuesday is dry and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Let’s just wait for the ensembles/EPS, op runs are prone to volatility this far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: Kicker Storm out West was a bit east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Glad that every model shows a major storm of some type, although the track is still way early to be determined b/c of the chaotic fast pattern and possibility for kicker/confluence shortwaves to either crush it south and/or kick it east. DC/Baltimore is probably the most favored area with lesser chances headed NE. We’re still in the game for sure but odds are best to our SW. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It's great that all the models give snow at this point. UKMET is now the most tucked with the GFS the most progressive. AI moved West which was great however the CMC moved closer to the GFS however is still a good 6 to 12 hit. Still 5 days out however we are seeing the goal posts here. If you take out the outliers of the UKMET and the AI we have at minimum a 6 to 12 inches event as it looks at this time. Probably more like 8 to 14. Love to see a megalopolis storm has been a while. Amendment. EURO is now the southeast outlier. Wish it was any other model. Still gives 1 to 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: What are you talking about with Tuesday? Tuesday is dry and cold. The past event we had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Typical model range when the models lose it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It is amazing that the EURO track/snowfall hammers the exact spots that have been hit all year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, MJO812 said: Typical model range when the models lose it It could be an over-correction however we have to watch that kicker out west it was further east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mentioned it earlier. That s/w is oblong and not going to allow a big North turn. So basically you want it captured not much further south than the Delmarva. From the New England forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Typical model range when the models lose it Doesn't look like the models have lost it or neccearilly are about to. They all show a potent snowstorm for the midatlantic with varying tracks... giving warning level snow for the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: Doesn't look like the models have lost it or neccearilly are about to. They all show a potent snowstorm for the midatlantic with varying tracks... giving warning level snow for the metro. A compromise between the Euro and Ukie would make everyone happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Typical model range when the models lose it You're in the best spot for this one. Central Jersey as well basically like all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Doesn't look like the models have lost it or neccearilly are about to. They all show a potent snowstorm for the midatlantic with varying tracks... giving warning level snow for the metro. Yes everyone minus euro 12z (which is advisory level) show a warning level event. Now if the euro starts to do this and other models Follow id worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It is amazing that the EURO track/snowfall hammers the exact spots that have been hit all year. Which I don't think is realistic, I think the window for this to hit DCA/BWI and miss everyone else is a narrow one. I suspect this hits all the big cities or none. Could see it where the Cape/Islands/SE NJ and maybe Delmarva are hit but not a case where the former occurs. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Euro is basically the Tuesday event just a couple of inches… Boxing Day, I remember telling people at work it was going out to sea, this was just before the winter break. Man, did I get some flack for that.....it's just too early to know, but IMO this hasn't been our year and that is probably going to be the story. I'll be a monkey's uncle if I have to watch another southern storm this year. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: You're in the best spot for this one. Central Jersey as well basically like all season. I'm in CNJ and we have not had a storm crack 3 inches here IMBY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Which I don't think is realistic, I think the window for this to hit DCA/BWI and miss everyone else is a narrow one. I suspect this hits all the big cities or none. Could see it where the Cape/Islands/SE NJ and maybe Delmarva are hit but not a case where the former occurs. IIRC, that was the deal with Boxing Day; it was going to miss or hit a good chunk; even still, while it delivered some 32 inches in my region, not far to my west it was way less, which is rather unusual. It did hit all the coastal cities IIRC, but not Philly so much, which is further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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