Metasequoia Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 CMC depicts a storm riding up the coast, but the pressure isn't that low. Interesting... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Yeah it was posted a few pages back Must have missed it while studying the CMC. Two steps forward (GFS and ICON) one step back CMC. I'm Ok with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, wxman said: Must have missed it while studying the CMC. Two steps forward (GFS and ICON) one step back CMC. I'm Ok with that. Things will still move around for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ukie looks great 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Ok with the model consistency I’m starting to get a little excited 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie looks great How does the gefs look? Did it move west a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie looks great I only have it to 42 - what site are you using. I’m using pivotal at 10:1 for my tracker I started last night but would love to peak ahead lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: I only have it to 42 - what site are you using. I’m using pivotal at 10:1 for my tracker I started last night but would love to peak ahead lol https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: I only have it to 42 - what site are you using. I’m using pivotal at 10:1 for my tracker I started last night but would love to peak ahead lol I think they're using the site that shows it in 12 hour intervals and it has a bombing low off the carolina coast. We don't have the specifics yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How does the gefs look? Did it move west a little? Members did but still relatively flat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 UKIE Looking great forum wide through 123. Next few frames will be telling. edit: looks like a stall between 129 and 132. Will be an epic run verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, BoulderWX said: UKIE Looking great forum wide through 123. Next few frames will be telling. 985 kinda tucked. Will destroy areas just away from the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Correction 979 and very tucked. Li flips to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 971! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Correction 979 and very tucked. Li flips to rain Is rain really a concern with this storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Correction 979 and very tucked. Li flips to rain Given high pressure positioning and dynamics I'm a little skeptical of this "flip to rain". WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Way to tucked for Long Island but still gives about a foot of snow for Li with a jackpot of 20 over nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Is rain really a concern with this storm If it's this amped it would flip for a time but everyone still gets slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Correction 979 and very tucked. Li flips to rain Temporarily but even with that and it being furthest west of the guidance, the entire forum sees over a foot @10:1 - that was a beautiful run, and being inland I’m biased towards it but I always shoot towards the middle and don’t think it will be that far west. This is fun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, BoulderWX said: Temporarily but even with that and it being furthest west of the guidance, the entire forum sees over a foot @10:1 - that was a beautiful run, and being inland I’m biased towards it but I always shoot towards the middle and don’t think it will be that far west. This is fun! I like seeing some models tucked at this juncture. Still time for them to correct back se 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It's great that all the models give snow at this point. UKMET is now the most tucked with the GFS the most progressive. AI moved West which was great however the CMC moved closer to the GFS however is still a good 6 to 12 hit. Still 5 days out however we are seeing the goal posts here. If you take out the outliers of the UKMET and the AI we have at minimum a 6 to 12 inches event as it looks at this time. Probably more like 8 to 14. Love to see a megalopolis storm has been a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Gotta love that little loop. Some of our biggest storms had that loop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, Nibor said: Gotta love that little loop. Some of our biggest storms had that loop. Yeah... about perfect. Has that slow moving firehose off the Atlantic. Of course, wouldn't mind a 50 plus mile shift southeast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Sucks for LI, but wow Ukie is a nuke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I like seeing some models tucked at this juncture. Still time for them to correct back se No it's good. CMC went weaker and less amped compared to 0z but 12z GFS/Icon got much better. It's good to see a range of outlier solutions this far out. The good thing is they would all still give this region its biggest storm in years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Sucks for LI, but wow Ukie is a nuke! They still get hammered though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Don’t buy the UKIE track. A sudden jump due NW like that? Never seen that movement before. We’ve seen storms retrograde but that’s more a lurch NW and then a jump east. Strange. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 FRom mid atl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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