snowman19 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Nothing has changed at all since yesterday morning. This is either a huge hit or zippo. And there’s still 2 very distinct camps, world’s apart from each other, that both refuse to budge. I think we will have our answer by 0z tomorrow night. Either the GFS/GEFS, ICON, GraphCast GFS and EURO-AIFS are going to score a big coup or they are going to fully cave to the EURO/EPS, CMC and UKMET and fail miserably 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: My last real blizzards were January 2016 and January 2018, both were great day time long duration white out snowstorms. January 2018 we had a blizzard in this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Nothing has changed at all since yesterday morning. This is either a huge hit or zippo. And there’s still 2 very distinct camps, world’s apart from each other, that both refuse to budge. I think we will have our answer by 0z tomorrow night. Either the GFS/GEFS, ICON, GraphCast GFS and EURO-AIFS are going to score a big coup or they are going to fully cave to the EURO/EPS, CMC and UKMET and fail miserably Gfs is starting to cave. It's not unusual for the gfs to be this flat. This has been the theme for decades with the gfs and coastal storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6z cmc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Nothing has changed at all since yesterday morning. This is either a huge hit or zippo. And there’s still 2 very distinct camps, world’s apart from each other, that both refuse to budge. I think we will have our answer by 0z tomorrow night. Either the GFS/GEFS, ICON, GraphCast GFS and EURO-AIFS are going to score a big coup or they are going to fully cave to the EURO/EPS, CMC and UKMET and fail miserably the AIFS moved pretty far west at 00z. and I don't think the graphcast GFS is any good. but I agree that nothing is set in stone. I'd take the latter camp over the former, though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, steve392 said: January 2018 we had a blizzard in this area? Yes, it was a mini January 2016. 15 inches in 12 hours instead of 30 inches in 24 hours lol... 6 hours of true blizzard conditions vs 12 hours of true blizzard conditions. It happened during the day and you could not see anything outside for hours it was a true white out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the AIFS moved pretty far west at 00z. and I don't think the graphcast GFS is any good. but I agree that nothing is set in stone. I'd take the latter camp over the former, though I would be shocked if the GFS/GEFS and ICON scored a coup on the EURO/EPS, but I guess stranger things have happened. That said, I do think the CMC is too amped as usual and I don’t consider the UKMET to be a very reliable model, but occasionally it will do pretty well. As far as the EURO-AIFS, it seemed to have been doing well this winter up to this point and I saw that it moved NW at 0z, but still a miss. And the GraphCast….I haven’t seen the verification scores yet 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The 2/15 6z GFS has taken a minor step toward the snowier guidance. Whether this is the start of a model adjustment or just run-to-run discontinuity remains to be seen. 24-Hour Snowfall Forecasts: 2/15 0z GFS: 2/15 6z GFS: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 With a little luck the stronger Rockies Ridge, Southeast Ridge, and sharper trough on the Euro and Canadian verifies so this can get pulled in closer to the coast by the bowling ball upper low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 AIFS is... a hit! well, sorta. it's shifted hundreds of miles west in the last two runs 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: With a little luck the stronger Southeast Ridge and sharper trough on the Euro and Canadian verifies so this can get pulled in closer to the coast by the bowling ball upper low. That’s the thing right there that has separated this winter from all the other recent ones over the last several years…the SE ridge. Up until this winter, the tendency has been for the models to miss the SE ridge amplifying/strengthening at the last minute. This winter, with a few exceptions obviously, the tendency has been for the models to overdo the SE ridge and end up de-amplifying it at the last minute 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Good morning... no headline change to tighten up the window of opportunity for the midweek snow... and it's seriousness. WPC did not upgrade the 1/4" frozen qpf probs in the megalopolis swath in its mid shift production, still having us on the 1/4-1/2" edge of qpf. fwiw...what I've told my FB group...Next Wed-Thu Feb 19-20 northeast USA: Think about options if delays in powdery snow sometime in this period, We're not sure if this will be the big snow storm of the winter for the DC-BOS megalopolis as advertised by the Canadian and European models or a grazer as proposed by the United States modeling but there will be a period of snow. We just dont know how serious. Dont make flight - outdoor plan changes yet, but think about your options, especially I95 corridor to the coast. ---- The attached is experimental, objective and tends to be conservative, especially longer ranges. Also attached the 00z/15 GEFS-CMCE around a 50 member blend which offers a 3-6" snow event here on LI-NYC... sort of a general idea. This adjusts with time as the model ensembles adjust. Not a done deal on snowfall... imo a good way to play this... snow coming but how much? I noticed the GEFS doesn't want to close off the upper low in NYS and even the EPS is faster and slightly less amped. I definitely am not thinking blizzard or anything like that right now... one has to consider faster-weaker-further east trend but maybe it will still produce a nice 4+ snowfall DC-BOS? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 given that the AIFS is a machine learning model and it does not have much of a frame of reference for this kind of setup, it's no surprise that it would struggle 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That’s the thing right there that has separated this winter from all the other recent ones over the last several years…the SE ridge. Up until this winter, the tendency has been for the models to miss the SE ridge amplifying/strengthening at the last minute. This winter, with a few exceptions obviously, the tendency has been for the models to overdo the SE ridge and end up de-amplifying it at the last minute It’s been a mixed story this winter. On one hand we had the extreme Southeast Ridge suppression back in January. But this month so far with all the events except the one that produced the significant snow near DC the gradient has been shifting further north. This weekend the AIFS forecast originally had the low sliding to our south but it turned into a big cutter. The other common denominator has been that the models have been underestimating the strength of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So we have been getting the consistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. This is going to be the first test case for an East Coast low this winter so far. So we don’t have much of a sample size of events to draw on for individual model performance. You can look at the upper low on the GFS coming into the West acting as a kicker low. But this feature is weaker on the CMC and Euro. That piece of energy could be a big key to the forecast. I am not sure it’s currently getting sampled very well since it still back over the Pacific. We could probably use a special NOAA flight this weekend since the Pacific has been consistently acting as the spoiler for us. I would really like to see this pattern relax at least once this winter to finally allow something approximating a benchmark track to return after being absent for years. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Not gonna lie would be nice to experience a 30" plus bomb when not plowing it. Jan 1996 storm made me sell my truck & plow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol Big shift west 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I'm excited . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Last for ECMWF AIFS runs: 2/14 12z: 2/14 18z: 2/15 0z: 2/16 0z: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s been a mixed story this winter. On one hand we had the extreme Southeast Ridge suppression back in January. But this month so far with all the events except the one that produced the significant snow near DC the gradient has been shifting further north. This weekend the AIFS forecast originally had the low sliding to our south but it turned into a big cutter. The other common denominator has been that the models have been underestimating the strength of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So we have been getting the consistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. This is going to be the first test case for an East Coast low this winter so far. So we don’t have much of a sample size of events to draw on for individual model performance. You can look at the upper low on the GFS coming into the West acting as a kicker low. But this feature is weaker on the CMC and Euro. That piece of energy could be a big key to the forecast. I am not sure it’s currently getting sampled very well since it still back over the Pacific. We could probably use a special NOAA flight this weekend since the Pacific has been consistently acting as the spoiler for us. I would really like to see this pattern relax at least once this winter to finally allow something approximating a benchmark track to return after being absent for years. I would imagine NOAA will schedule a special flight over the Pacific this weekend just for that sampling purpose, given that this is going to potentially be a high impact storm next week for the entire I-95 corridor 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I am sick of AI already….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s been a mixed story this winter. On one hand we had the extreme Southeast Ridge suppression back in January. But this month so far with all the events except the one that produced the significant snow near DC the gradient has been shifting further north. This weekend the AIFS forecast originally had the low sliding to our south but it turned into a big cutter. The other common denominator has been that the models have been underestimating the strength of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So we have been getting the consistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. This is going to be the first test case for an East Coast low this winter so far. So we don’t have much of a sample size of events to draw on for individual model performance. You can look at the upper low on the GFS coming into the West acting as a kicker low. But this feature is weaker on the CMC and Euro. That piece of energy could be a big key to the forecast. I am not sure it’s currently getting sampled very well since it still back over the Pacific. We could probably use a special NOAA flight this weekend since the Pacific has been consistently acting as the spoiler for us. I would really like to see this pattern relax at least once this winter to finally allow something approximating a benchmark track to return after being absent for years. The question is why do suppression, hugger and cutter tracks become more common with a faster Pacific but benchmark tracks become less common? What's so special about benchmark tracks that cause the opposite reaction vs the other tracks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 My last real blizzards were January 2016 and January 2018, both were great day time long duration white out snowstorms.2021? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Last for ECMWF AIFS runs: 2/14 12z: 2/14 18z: 2/15 0z: 2/16 0z: so the storm is shifting west and also getting larger longitudinally on that AI model, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, North and West said: 2021? . snow storm to mixed event, but not a blizzard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: given that the AIFS is a machine learning model and it does not have much of a frame of reference for this kind of setup, it's no surprise that it would struggle Does that mean if AI weather models had been developed in the early 10s they would have been much more accurate since coastal snowstorms were much more common back then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: With a little luck the stronger Rockies Ridge, Southeast Ridge, and sharper trough on the Euro and Canadian verifies so this can get pulled in closer to the coast by the bowling ball upper low. This is one of these be careful for what you wish for types of storms. As shown on the 0z run of the Euro the storm is very intense and would cause major disruption across the area. Strong winds, high tides with coastal flooding and erosion, heavy snows with travel impacts, and a sting jet on the backside would all combine to cause major problems across the area. The 06z run tracked the center further east away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: snow storm to mixed event, but not a blizzard 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Nothing has changed at all since yesterday morning. This is either a huge hit or zippo. And there’s still 2 very distinct camps, world’s apart from each other, that both refuse to budge. I think we will have our answer by 0z tomorrow night. Either the GFS/GEFS, ICON, GraphCast GFS and EURO-AIFS are going to score a big coup or they are going to fully cave to the EURO/EPS, CMC and UKMET and fail miserably I think worlds apart is an exaggeration. But I’d agree someone is going to cave soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 snow storm to mixed event, but not a blizzardAlways fascinating how one storm means nothing to some memories here and everything to others, even while all in the same metro. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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