eduggs Posted Tuesday at 06:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:12 PM A quick look at recent SREF members shows the kind of upper level evolution that would be required to get snow into our area from the coastal. The amount of modeled snow is closely correlated with the orientation of the height lines out ahead of the ULL (area highlighted below). In the very few members that show a few inches of snow for our area (from the coastal and not ULL pass), the 500mb height lines are oriented nearly south to north, indicating an ULL taking on a neutral or negative tilt. Note the 12z 12km NAM is on the more extreme end of the spectrum although not the most negatively tilted compared to the full 9z SREF suite. In the majority of members and models that show no snow from the coastal, the trof is positively tilted and height rises in this area are less pronounced. This connection is probably obvious to most. But I still find it somewhat illuminating to look at the individual SREF members since they show variation far outside the likely envelope of solutions. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM NMB9 showing the extreme (weenie) solution. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Tuesday at 06:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:26 PM 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: NMB9 showing the extreme (weenie) solution. IMO I don't think we will have a good handle on this and how this is going to move up along the coast until the energy is transferred from the Gulf to the southeast coast and the precip field develops and how much territory it fills and the movement of it - and exactly how the upper low is behaving.......... 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Tuesday at 06:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:41 PM 15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: IMO I don't think we will have a good handle on this and how this is going to move up along the coast until the energy is transferred from the Gulf to the southeast coast and the precip field develops and how much territory it fills and the movement of it - and exactly how the upper low is behaving.......... And when should that start to happen? Mid day tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted Tuesday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:49 PM I’ll still follow it here but I have no expectations. A late surprise would be nice but unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Tuesday at 06:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:57 PM 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: yes Well that wouldn’t be much lead time for agencies to prepare or are we just talking about a few inches or no? If that does indeed happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Tuesday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:07 PM 37 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: IMO I don't think we will have a good handle on this and how this is going to move up along the coast until the energy is transferred from the Gulf to the southeast coast and the precip field develops and how much territory it fills and the movement of it - and exactly how the upper low is behaving.......... Could that matter for Richmond up to maybe Cape May? Absolutely. For us we would need major changes to the degree that the models would be laughingstocks for us to get meaningful snow. Meaningful=shovel/plow needed. The upper low related snow could leave coatings to an inch here or there, and maybe some IVT like feature develops which is impossible to ferret out until it’s there. But otherwise the lights are off, doors shut and blinds slammed down. It’s way more than the 50 mile shift we sometimes need. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted Tuesday at 07:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:47 PM What it looks like now ... raging blizzard across KS, ne OK, weak and undeveloped wave s.e. of DFW, tropical energy on low simmer in western Gulf. 500 mb low (529) developing slowly in larger upper trof n/c mN. It's a waste of a great set up to have such a flabby upper low, but if that starts to develop at any faster rate than the majority of guidance assumes, look out. It is the weak point, all the necessary surface ingredients are in place. I think it's like a 1 in 20 chance for significant development (n of 37N) and a 1 in 10 for last- minute partial development increasing snow potential from 0-2" to 2-5". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milleand Posted Tuesday at 08:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:01 PM Thought this was pretty good, I’m sure someone on here wrote this lol 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted Tuesday at 08:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:03 PM 3 minutes ago, milleand said: Thought this was pretty good, I’m sure someone on here wrote this lol Exactly. From that pic it looks to me like that thing is going to hit even further southeast of the benchmark than this Thursday's "storm." I think we'll be fine. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted Tuesday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:17 PM Thought this was pretty good, I’m sure someone on here wrote this lolNASA lies. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted Tuesday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:19 PM There's not one piece of modeling left suggesting notable snows coming N at this point with the NAM caving. Are we allowed to say we have a handle on this yet? 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Tuesday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:22 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:23 PM 18z nam is a weaker and more OTS evolution than 12z was. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Tuesday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:27 PM Gonna chase it. See ya in Montauk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Tuesday at 08:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:29 PM Light snows Thursday afternoon/evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted Tuesday at 08:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:35 PM 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Light snows Thursday afternoon/evening I will take the light snows from the ULL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted Tuesday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:49 PM ULL/IVT snows may produce light snows for some but that area will be tough to pin down as IVT usually are finicky. But please don't tell me the SFC evolution isn't handled well (and has largely been outside of some early whacko runs) at this point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted Tuesday at 09:01 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:01 PM 1 hour ago, milleand said: Thought this was pretty good, I’m sure someone on here wrote this lol You'll still have Metfan and Neg Nao arguing until Dec 21 2032 the magnetic pole will tug it north 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Tuesday at 09:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:02 PM Yup. Days and days of fairly steady modeling showing a miss despite an anomalous setup. Absent a few 5-7 days runs with coastal impact, this has been well telegraphed. You can't even hang your hat on any particular fantasy SREF member anymore as of 15z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted Tuesday at 09:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:03 PM Just now, eduggs said: Yup. Days and days of fairly steady modeling showing a miss despite an anomalous setup. Absent a few 5-7 days runs with coastal impact, this has been well telegraphed. You can't even hang your hat on any particular fantasy SREF member anymore as of 15z. Excellent post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Tuesday at 09:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:16 PM 47 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Gonna chase it. See ya in Montauk Then gas up a boat and book it 200 miles SE? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Tuesday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:24 PM 18Z RGEM almost identical to 12Z and presents a much more believable general area-wide snowfall from the ULL of 0.5-1.5" of pure powder, with a bullseye on NYC and is fairly similar to the 18Z NAM with the ULL snows - and both show hints of an inverted trough reaching westward from the coastal low to the ULL. I could see someone getting a few inches wherever the best bands set up. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Tuesday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:41 PM 1 hour ago, milleand said: Thought this was pretty good, I’m sure someone on here wrote this lol That graphic makes it look like the asteroid is the size of Saudi Arabia, lol - it's actually 177 feet across. Not sure if Bruce Willis or Robert Duvall will still be around to save us... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Tuesday at 09:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:42 PM Virginia Beach with up to a foot of snow-what do they average in a season-1 inch? - Wednesday Snow, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. Northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 27. North wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Thursday Snow likely, mainly before 7am. Patchy blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. North wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted Tuesday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:48 PM Looks similar to mar 1-2 1980 incl record cold air mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Tuesday at 09:57 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 09:57 PM I'll have to be patient... Should the 18z/18 3KNAM and RGEM verify as cyclically modeled... what is that 0.5-1.5" powder going to affect your Thu evening commute with temps during any snow generally mid 20s, possibly dropping into the lower 20s. Again if it snows. Snow ratio modeled 11 or 12 to 1 NYC and near 14 to 1 and west... taking the more conservative NAM 3K. Wont surprise me to see 3/4S- NYC CP around 5 or 6P. IF its still on in tomorrows modeling we'll look at snow growth. Definitely very cold thickness so typically that's a smaller flake unless flavored by DGZ growth. The ULL at 5H is nice... looks like a 150-170 12 HR HFC crossing the Delmarva Thu afternoon. For now... I sit tight on the thread as is.. and we'll see if snows as I think it will, albeit minor though with my first pgh caveat....slippery stretches that would need salting If the 5H ULL weakens in future modeling over our area, then it is done=no sno and all this has been for naught. Best I can do. Will check in lager tonight or tomorrow if snow is still a player. If not a player... I did my best to play it cautious. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Tuesday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:57 PM 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Virginia Beach with up to a foot of snow-what do they average in a season-1 inch? - Wednesday Snow, mainly after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. Northeast wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 27. North wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Thursday Snow likely, mainly before 7am. Patchy blowing snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. North wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. 5.5" according to this site; also saw their snowiest winter was 42" in 1980. https://www.bestplaces.net/climate/city/virginia/virginia_beach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted Tuesday at 10:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:08 PM 2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Exactly. From that pic it looks to me like that thing is going to hit even further southeast of the benchmark than this Thursday's "storm." I think we'll be fine. So I should plan on 7.5 years of retirement, if I begin October 01, 2025? I guess that should be enough time... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Tuesday at 10:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:14 PM 25 minutes ago, RU848789 said: That graphic makes it look like the asteroid is the size of Saudi Arabia, lol - it's actually 177 feet across. Not sure if Bruce Willis or Robert Duvall will still be around to save us... Willis is terminally ill, so it's unlikely. Duvall is older than God. But Ben Affleck is still around.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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