TJW014 Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:26 PM 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted Tuesday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:29 PM Nam 12z shows a snowstorm 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:29 PM The ull is pulling the storm west on the nam. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Tuesday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:29 PM Just a casual 100 mile shift lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM How's it do it? The NAM gets the ULL further S and underneath the SFC LP latitude. That allows the ULL to drive up heights slightly and 'push' the SFC LP further N while tugging on it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Tuesday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:34 PM 3 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: How's it do it? The NAM gets the ULL further S and underneath the SFC LP latitude. That allows the ULL to drive up heights slightly and 'push' the SFC LP further N while tugging on it. The 3K high res NAM shows absolutely nothing of the sort. Not even close in fact. Given the 12K NAM’s horrid performance over the last few storms color me very skeptical. 3K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025021812&fh=56&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025021812&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Also note the Wrn energy is held back. That allows the entrance jet into the trough to be much stronger and thus a more amplified ULL and further S ULL which allows the scenario above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Just now, JetsPens87 said: Also note the Wrn energy is held back. That allows the entrance jet into the trough to be much stronger and thus a more amplified ULL and further S ULL which allows the scenario above. We have been getting favorable H5 runs but they haven't translated to the surface. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Just now, snowman19 said: The 3K high res NAM shows absolutely nothing of the sort. Not even close in fact. Given the 12K NAM’s horrid performance over the last few storms color me very skeptical. 3K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025021812&fh=56&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 I wouldn't use the 12k NAM as a standalone forecast tool if my life depended on it. Just sharing. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Tuesday at 02:36 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:36 PM Just now, snowman19 said: The 3K high res NAM shows absolutely nothing of the sort. Not even close in fact. Given the 12K NAM’s horrid performance over the last few storms color me very skeptical. 3K NAM: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025021812&fh=56&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Ok chief LOL… how about we just wait and see if any of the other models show anything close to this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted Tuesday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:37 PM let's see if any other models trend towards the nam solution. if not it's not going to be taken seriously. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM The NAM is like that abusive ex that keeps coming back. Once you think you finally got rid of her for good, she shows back up at your door. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM Nam shows 3-4 inches of snow for the area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM 1 minute ago, Feen said: let's see if any other models trend towards the nam solution. if not it's not going to be taken seriously. You'd need quite a bit more than 1 12k NAM run to change any forecasts agreed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM Now on a serious note when was all the pieces finally sampled in the modeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:39 PM Just now, allgame830 said: Ok chief LOL… how about we just wait and see if any of the other models show anything close to this. Hey Chief, here’s the 3K NAM, even at Kuchera ratios. Nothing, zilch, nada. Something is obviously wrong with what the 12K just showed. ZERO support from ANY other model (even its ensembles/SREFS). But let’s go ahead and ride the 12K NAM. It’s obviously an extreme outlier 3K: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025021812&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Tuesday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:40 PM Just now, JetsPens87 said: You'd need quite a bit more than 1 12k NAM run to change any forecasts agreed Hey every dog eventually has his day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Tuesday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:41 PM Just now, allgame830 said: Hey every dog eventually has his day! And some dogs eat their own vomit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted Tuesday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:42 PM Nam 12z Kuchera speed: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM 1 minute ago, Feen said: Nam shows 3-4 inches of snow for the area What area? The forum covers an area about 75 miles out in all directions from NYC. That's a lot of different areas weather wise, and even if places 50-75 miles south of the city are projected by the NAM to get 3-4 inches I wouldn't hold my breath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:43 PM 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Hey Chief, here’s the 3K NAM, even at Kuchera ratios. Nothing, zilch, nada. Something is obviously wrong with what the 12K just showed. ZERO support from ANY other model (even its ensembles/SREFS). But let’s go ahead and ride the 12K NAM. It’s obviously an extreme outlier 3K: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025021812&fh=60&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Wait a second did I ever say I was believing it lol… it’s more comical than anything! Now if other models showed roughly the same outcome then perhaps something is going on. Today by 0z was my cut off day with this “storm” I know later then most but I had to let for possible changes to happen. Also again it’s happened before not saying it will so let me get that straight across to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted Tuesday at 02:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:44 PM 2 minutes ago, Feen said: Nam 12z Kuchera speed: I wouldn't hold my breath on this solution if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted Tuesday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:45 PM NAM back to a 3-6"....need other models to come on board now @ 12z to give much credence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted Tuesday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:47 PM 1 minute ago, Wannabehippie said: I wouldn't hold my breath on this solution if I were you. i'm not i was just showing what the model is showing. It's possible we get a trend i've seen it before. you still have a good 36 hours until go time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Tuesday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:47 PM 1 minute ago, Northof78 said: NAM back to a 3-6"....need other models to come on board now @ 12z to give much credence Nam is notorious for being too amped and too far north at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted Tuesday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:47 PM 1 minute ago, Northof78 said: NAM back to a 3-6"....need other models to come on board now @ 12z to give much credence Don't hold your breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Tuesday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:47 PM Just now, Feen said: i'm not i was just showing what the model is showing. It's possible we get a trend i've seen it before. you still have a good 36 hours until go time! Exactly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Tuesday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:48 PM Just for fun the 3K nam came Northwest a lot from 6z. Gets a little snow to Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Tuesday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:51 PM 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam is notorious for being too amped and too far north at this range we always get a nam blizzard run from these grazers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Tuesday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:59 PM 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we always get a nam blizzard run from these grazers Where have you been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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